MLB Trade Rumors published their estimates for 2027 raises for arbitration eligible players on Friday. Their system is based on a model created by Matt Swartz that inputs all the relevant historical data on arbitration salaries both agreed and arbitrated to generate an estimate for each player. MLBTR has been using it for over a decade and generally has a strong reputation for general accuracy.
The Detroit Tigers have 11 players due a raise in 2027. The Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati
Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, and Tampa Bay Rays all have more than 11 players due an arbitration raise. Four other teams have 11 players exactly in line for a raise.
A good place to start getting a grasp on the offseason is through these estimates, a list of impending free agents, and an understanding of each club’s payroll and 40-man roster situation. For example, the Brewers and Rays are both generally small payroll clubs. The fact that they’re in the top seven teams in terms of players due a significant raise says that they may have some payroll issues this offseason, and could be pretty active in trading players away as they get more expensive. Of course we have to get into their projected 2027 payroll to really know if they’re facing a problem as most of these raises are very small, and they may have money coming off the books elsewhere.
The new CBA negotiations are going to weigh heavily on teams’ calculations as well. Other than in his first months on the job back in 2022, Scott Harris has shown absolutely no interest in the trade market, dealing away or acquiring talent only when he has to around the trade deadline, so who knows if he’ll even be thinking about trades this offseason, but there will probably be plenty of opportunities once the CBA is settled.
As noted by MLBTR (read the full 30 team breakdown here), service time data isn’t finalized by the league yet, and there may be some minor adjustments to come. We also don’t have the Super Two cutoff date that can alter the equation for a few specific players. For now, this is the best estimate we’re going to get. We’ll list the player, their age and service time, and then their 2026 salary followed by MLBTR’s arbitration estimate for 2027.
Will Vest-31 (5.100 years): $3.950MM —>$4.4MM
Zach McKinstry-31 (5.099): $4.2MM —> $5MM
Matt Vierling-30 (5.026): $3.255MM —>$3.7MM
Riley Greene-26 (4.110): $5.0MM —>$9.3MM
Spencer Torkelson-27 (4.076): $4.075MM —>$7.7M
Kerry Carpenter-29 (4.057): $3.275MM —>$4.1MM
Tyler Holton-30 (4.047): $1.575MM —>$2.4MM
Beau Brieske-28 (4.007): $1.157MM —>$1.5MM
Reese Olson-27 (3.123): $818,100 —>$1.5MM
Wenceel Pérez-26 (3.000): $803,400 —>$1.4 MM
Parker Meadows-26 (2.169): $805,300 —>$1MM
Using FanGraphs’ Roster Resource, the Tigers final estimated payroll for 2026 was $205M, whereas in 2025 that number was $155M. The Tigers spent right up to the luxury tax threshold back in the spring, but by dealing away Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize’s remaining salary, they ended up well under the limit. That was important as to not affect their draft position in a year in which they’re due a Competitive Balance Round A selection as a revenue sharing club. That’s the round where they drafted Kevin McGonigle in 2023, as well another really exciting young hitting prospect in Michael Oliveto in 2025. With a few sizable free agent contracts coming off the books, Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg should also have plenty of payroll flexibility.
Looking through the arbitration eligible list, the only players that are locks to return are Riley Greene and Reese Olson. Greene remains a real bargain, and the larger question in his case is whether the Tigers front office is even interested in an extension. If not, perhaps Greene could even end up traded in 2027. Meanwhile, Olson is still super cheap and the Tigers need starting pitching, so that’s a guaranteed keeper as well.
Most of the rest are seeing only small increases in their arb years. I added their ages to the list, because that’s often instructive. Are the Tigers going to pay 30-year-old Matt Vierling an extra half a million after two seasons where he was barely on the field? It’s not impossible but it seems pretty likely he’s gone with only one position in the outfield not spoken for and Ben Malgeri a younger, more well rounded version of Vierling. Wenceel Pérez isn’t getting a big enough increase to worry about, but again the Tigers need some roster spots open, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Pérez was released either. His eyesight is the more pressing concern at the moment and we wish him the best. Parker Meadows’ defensive ability is such an outlier that the Tigers might decide to keep him and see if he can finally get right, but with Max Clark in center field and Ben Malgeri, Brett Callahan, as well as Zach McKinstry and to some extent Javier Báez all able to play the position, perhaps they’ll finally just move on from Meadows as well. More likely they bring him to camp and see how it goes.
The Tigers will see if Will Vest can get back from the stress fracture in his elbow as he’s still inexpensive and the needs in the bullpen are so glaring. For similar reasons and lack of expensive, the Tigers will probably hang onto Holton and Brieske. They are starting to develop enough left-handed relief pitching that maybe they’ll shop Holton for something else, but that’s going to be a very small scale deal if it were to happen. It’s not easy to have too many lefties, generally.
The two biggest questions on the current roster are whether the Tigers will keep Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson. The latter continues to produce to a modestly above average degree at the plate, but by the standards of a first baseman that’s not terribly compelling production. Torkelson’s struggles on ground balls and the fact that the Tigers have some other candidates to play first base all say that Torkelson is far from certain to return. He’s actually a decent little trade chip if the Tigers do decide to move on, as his power and plate discipline all say he should be a better hitter than he is. Probably there’s a team out there that believes they can get more production out of him.
On the other hand, the Tigers have just Dillon Dingler, Hao-Yu Lee, and Eduardo Valencia holding things down as the right-handed bats should the Tigers part ways with Torkelson. Of the young players they can look to for help, it’s basically down to Ben Malgeri and John Peck. Torkelson for $7.7M doesn’t sound so bad in that light. The Tigers should just stop considering him their full-time first baseman, and they took some steps toward that posture in September.
Kerry Carpenter is another whose time in the organization could be coming to an end. The Tigers can certainly keep him into whatever kind of spring camp we have next year and then decide, but the injuries and one-dimensional nature of his game all say he’s going to be of limited utility. He’s also 29 and dealing with a case of plantar fascitis that didn’t resolve after months of rest and rehab. That’s sometimes a hard injury to fully resolve as players get older. The Tigers could certainly use him in a limited role as a part-time DH, considering the number of inexperienced outfielders they have available, but all of those outfielders are major upgrades defensively as compared to putting Carpenter back in right field very often.
His situation probably depends on his medicals in the spring, and he’s another one that certain teams might look to as a minor trade acquisition if they need some low cost power from the left side. Carpenter does still have three options available and a decent highlight reel, but right now he’s a part-time DH with a bit of a difficult medical history.
The Tigers ended the season with nine players on the 60-day injured list. Space will have to be opened back up on the 40-man roster for each of them. Expect at least a few to be released or possibly moved in trade.
LHP Bailey Horn
RHP Reese Olson
RHP Burch Smith
RHP Will Vest
INF Trey Sweeney
OF Kerry Carpenter
OF Parker Meadows
OF Wenceel Pérez
OF Matt Vierling
This offseason, Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty, and Kenley Jansen are headed to free agency, so they’ll come off the 40-man to open three spots, but they’ll still need to clear six spots to keep all their 60-day guys, and they’ll also need to protect Josue Briceño and Max Anderson from the Rule 5 draft in December, or whenever the draft happens this offseason. The 40-man certainly has plenty of playerswho could be lost with negligible impact.
We saw a new look Tigers team over the final 6-8 weeks of the regular season as many of the names we’ve mentioned here were on the injured list. It’s time to move on from some of them, let the new breed take over, and use available roster spots to add some supporting cast, most particularly serious relief help, this offseason.
It looks like a pretty quiet offseason is in store for the club in free agency. Acquiring one of the top relievers available should be a priority, and every team wants more starting pitching depth, but don’t expect much until the new CBA is in place. Even then the free agent market doesn’t have many interesting fits for the Tigers. Their focus should be to sort out their roster, especially in regard to the bullpen, right field, and first base, add some pitching help, and then be ready to pounce if the new CBA causes payroll and roster issues for other teams that the Tigers can exploit. They have payroll space and plenty of prospect depth should the front office decide to get active in a market for trades and free agents that should be fairly frenzied if the expected lockout goes as long or longer than last time around, and comes with significant changes to payroll structure around the league.
