This is a big one. Like last year when the Falcons faced the Eagles and Chiefs, or 2023 when they drew the buzzsaw Lions, Atlanta’s facing one of the very best teams in the NFL. This happens to be a team they see
once every four years, and since the turn of the decade, the Buffalo Bills have the second-best record in the NFL, barely behind the Chiefs.
That means that many of us have had this circled as a loss since the summer, regardless of how optimistic you might have been about the Falcons heading in 2025. It also means Atlanta will have to be terrific to snatch a victory in Week 6, and while a loss would be neither surprising nor world-ending, a win would momentous.
Here’s what you should know about the matchup ahead.
Team rankings
The Falcons being off for a week and the favorable field position opposing offenses are starting with has helped them rank #1 in yardage, but it’s nonetheless hugely impressive. It also matches their DVOA ranking.
These are two quality pass defenses facing off against two big-armed quarterbacks. Atlanta has a clear advantage on the ground, but I also worry that we haven’t seen the Falcons run defense tested the way Josh Allen and James Cook have been straining defenses all year long.
How the Bills have changed
A lot since the last time the Falcons saw them, all the way back in 2021, but also substantially since last season.
The nucleus is still here. Josh Allen is still the quarterback. The front office and coaching staff are still led by Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott, respectively. But otherwise the offense is just left tackle Dion Dawkins, fullback Reggie Gilliam, and a bunch of new faces; the defense is defensive lineman Ed Oliver, linebacker Matt Milano, and nickel back Taron Johnson, and a bunch of new faces. This is a very different team than the 2021 version the Falcons squared off against in the snow. They’re just still very good.
If you’re looking for moves this offseason, the Bills were active to try to get over the hump. Some of those signings are suspended or sitting on IR—Larry Ogunjobi and Michael Hoecht among them on the defensive line—but Joey Bosa and Joshua Palmer have been useful additions for defense and offense, respectively. Otherwise, their investments were heavily on the draft side, where first round pick Maxwell Hairston is on injured reserve, and everyone else is a low-level contributor at the moment. The class does have talent for the future, though, and tight end Jackson Hawes is both fun and super useful as a high-level blocking option right out of the gate, one the Falcons will have to contend with Monday night.
What to know about the matchup
I know the Bills are coming off a bewildering loss to the Patriots, who exposed some of their weaknesses and played some crazy good football en route to doing so, but they’re arguably the best opponent the Falcons will face this year. Only the resurgent Colts, Buccaneers, and and Seahawks have a credible case to be mentioned in the same conversation, and I think the Bucs and Colts are a bit fortunate to be as good as they are thus far.
That means the Falcons have to be extremely crisp to win. The Bills have 13 sacks, 11 batted passes, and one of the better pressure rates in football, as well as one of the lowest missed tackle numbers and rates. They’re top ten in yards allowed overall, second in passing yards allowed, and top ten in passing touchdowns. On offense, they’re third in yardage, fifth in yards per play, second in first downs, and second in rushing yards. While Bills fans are justifiably alarmed by this team’s shakier spots, which we’ll talk about further down, they’re also 4-1 for a reason. This is a damn good football team.
Your first problem when dealing with Buffalo is always going to be Josh Allen. He’s currently completing 70% of his passes with a 9/2 TD/INT ratio on the season, with another 212 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 40 attempts. You can make a reasonable case right now, especially with Lamar Jackson injured, that he’s the best quarterback in the NFL. For a Falcons team that hasn’t always done a great job keeping quarterbacks in the pocket and has attackable spots in their secondary, Allen is a massive problem you probably can’t entirely solve. The focus has to be on pressuring him—his completion percentage nosedives down to 47.4% under pressure, per Pro Football Focus—and not letting him get loose to wreak havoc with his legs.
Your second problem is James Cook. The Falcons do not have a great run defense, even if they’ve held up better than anticipated, and Cook’s excellence against this unit certainly makes me nervous. Cook is averaging 5 yards per carry, has scored five times, and has 450 yards; he’s second in the NFL in both of those last two metrics. He’s also third in the league in success rate, underscoring both his excellence and how good this offensive line and tight end group is at paving the way for him. Atlanta can’t bottle up Allen and then let Cook take over the game, or they’re going to lose just the same.
The third problem is a bit less pressing, but still important. The Bills cornerback group has been underwhelming in the extreme, but have been helped by a pass rush that is excelling at keeping quarterbacks off-balance. Michael Penix Jr. has shown himself to be cool under pressure throughout his career, but when Carolina continually frustrated him, he descended into a series of compounding mistakes. Buffalo certainly can rattle him enough to duplicate that, so that’s a concern even though the Falcons offensive line has generally done a solid job of keeping him clean.
Oh, and Matt Prater has apparently drank from the fountain of kicking youth, hitting 91% of his kicks after taking over for an injured Tyler Bass. Buffalo has a terrific offense even if their receiving corps is a bit underwhelming, a strong defense despite their weaknesses in the secondary and against the run, and a very solid special teams group. They were very close to being the last undefeated team standing for a reason.
So what can we feel good about? More than one thing, actually.
First, the Falcons are 7-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to 2015, a run of excellence that is frankly astonishing. Second and much more importantly, they have the rushing attack to take advantage of Buffalo’s very real weaknesses against the run, weaknesses that have led to three games with over 130 yards allowed (and a season-opening 238 yard effort on the ground by the Baltimore Ravens). Thirdly, the Bills lack top-shelf playmakers outside of Allen and Cook, which has hurt their ability to punish teams deep down the field, which in turn plays into what the Falcons prefer to defend against. Only one of these things is a game-turning advantage—more on that in a second—but Atlanta doesn’t come into this game with zero hope.
The Bills have also had an unusual year where they’ve only faced two legitimately good quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson didn’t have to pass all that much in Week 1 because Baltimore was gashing Buffalo on the ground, but he still had a tidy 14/19 for 209 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, Drake Maye went 22/30 for 276 yards; otherwise, the Bills have feasted on (and heavily pressured, to their credit) Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, Tua Tagovailoa, and Spencer Rattler. Michael Penix Jr. and this Falcons passing attack are, when things click, as challenging a matchup through the air as Buffalo has had to contend with this year, and one capable of exposing some of the cracks in a Bills secondary that is not as good as the numbers suggest they are.
But this game will be won or lost on the ground, to be clear, and that’s where Atlanta has a massive advantage. The Falcons have one of the small handful of most gifted backs in the NFL and arguably the best backup in the league—go battle elsewhere, David Montgomery and Zach Charbonnet truthers—and a line that has done a pretty good job paving the way for them. The Bills run defense, meanwhile, has allowed an average of 145.6 yards per game on the ground. They’ve also allowed seven rushing touchdowns, the fourth-worst mark in the league, and rank poorly when defending second level and open field runs. Notably, Bijan’s elusiveness and absurd cutting ability means he’s going to have a handful of runs per game where he can slip a linebacker or safety and go a very long way, and this Buffalo defense should provide him with ample opportunities to do that.
The formula, then, is clear. Run, run, run the ball and pepper in passes, preferably deep shots to attack a Bills secondary that quietly has not been stellar, with an emphasis on play action to help defeat a talented Buffalo pass rush. Defensively, the Falcons need to slow Allen and Cook down on the ground, limit the deep shots that Allen is perfectly capable of taking, and get the pass rush cooking.
A turnover or two from Josh Allen, a stellar day on the ground, and limited mistakes from this offense and special teams will be enough to give Atlanta a real shot at winning this game. That’s a narrow path to victory, one reliant on the team bucking recent trends, but it doesn’t feel as impossible now as it did before this season began. Let’s hope the Falcons have a very big primetime upset in them.
