What positives did you see from preseason that you believe will translate to the games that count?
Marilyn Dubinski: There were certainly plenty, and just like we have to remind ourselves not to take the preseason too seriously when it doesn’t go well, we still have to do the same when it’s the opposite.
Still, some of the positives are things that will carry over, such as the improved depth. Everyone who played contributed, and even players who are likely third stringers coming in looked like they could fill in when called upon. Another thing that you can’t teach is chemistry, and this team has it in spades no matter who is on the court. There are plenty more actual basketball aspects to take away, but those two things will definitely carry over into the regular season.
Mark Barrington: I think last season’s team was pretty thin on talent overall, and missing one of two role players would have a big effect on the team. This team is still going to be in trouble if Wembanyama misses significant time, but there is plenty of depth behind him. Despite missing several starters for the preseason, the Spurs were more talented than all of their opponents, and once the starters rested, they were even more dominant. Mitch is going to have lots of options this season, and we might see lots of different lineups, at least early in the season.
Jacob Douglas: The depth of talent on the roster is much more evident than any season in the Wembanyama era – and that’s without seeing De’Aaron Fox and Jeremy Sochan. Dylan Harper looks like he’s ready to contribute in a big way now, Luke Kornet is the best back up big the Spurs have had in years, and there seems to be potentially some internal improvement on the wings, especially from Julian Champagnie. On top of that, Wembanyama looks like he’s made another leap, and should be in the MVP conversation this year. San Antonio has had a talent deficiency in recent years – that is not the case this season.
Jesus Gomez: I’ll go deeper into this soon, as there was a lot to love. Something that flew under the radar a bit was how solid the wing play was from Keldon Johnson and Julian Champagnie. The shooting percentages are not sustainable, but they looked comfortable out there and ready to give solid minutes for a team that is looking deeper than anticipated.
J.R. Wilco: I have three positives I saw. First: Harper’s decision making, first step, and lack of hurry are preternatural.
Second: It’s unfortunate that the team is beginning the season banged up, but they’re so deep this year that we’re not stuck expecting losses until full health. That’s huge!
Third: Wemby’s ability to utilize his body and see the game are likely the transformative forces that will elevate the team this season. When you add his aggression to the mix, it’s a potent brew that I think leads to postseason play.
How much do you think the injuries to De’Aaron Fox and Jeremy Sochan will negatively impact the Spurs in the first few games?
Dubinski: Again, not to take the preseason too seriously, but not as bad as one may have thought going in if the depth they’ve shown was any indication. Do the Spurs need them in the long term? Absolutely, but Stephon Castle is more than ready to fill in and continue his rise, and Dylan Harper looked even more NBA ready than expected. (Who says you can have too much of a good thing?) The Spurs are also going to need Sochan’s intensity and defense in the long run, but Harrison Barnes and Julian Champagnie can fill the hole in other ways in the meantime, especially on offense.
Barrington: The absence of Sochan could be a problem with the Mavericks, because his length and defensive ability could be helpful against a long team like Dallas. Mitigating that is the twin towers lineup with Wemby and Kornet. Fox is going to take a while to get back to full speed, but it looks like Castle is taking a leap in his second year, and I’m not too worried with him playing lead guard. Harper looked fantastic in preseason, but he’ll probably have some growing pains in his rookie year, and it won’t hurt to give him lots of time on the court to work that out. I think it’s more of an opportunity than a problem for the Silver and Black.
Douglas: It will hurt them on the defensive end. Fox and Sochan are two of the team’s best perimeter defenders. San Antonio will face the Mavericks, Pelicans and Raptors in the first four games, likely without Fox and Sochan. On paper, the Spurs should win those games, but those teams are big and athletic, if nothing else. Having another pesky perimeter defender in Fox, and a stout, versatile stopper like Sochan would be helpful tools for those matchups.
Gomez: Fox is a star, the type of guy who can pour in 20 points in his sleep. Sochan is the team’s best defender. It’s not great that they’ll be out. That said, the team’s depth at point guard and the arrival of Luke Kornet can help mask their absences. There will be times when they’ll be missed, but the Spurs should be able to survive without them for a few games.
Wilco: Because the team has had so many changes over the summer, is this something we can discuss with any amount of accuracy before the team plays at full strength for a few weeks? I guess that’s the negative impact: fans have to wait even longer before they can see what the team is capable of doing at full strength.
Prediction time: How many games do you think the Spurs will win and where will they finish in the West?
Dubinski: The West is getting more unpredictable by the day, and the perfect preseason makes it hard not to bump the Spurs up (which I’m starting to see some predictions doing). I would say 50+ wins/top 4 is their ceiling, and I’m admittedly more positive it could happen now than I was a few weeks ago, especially if they have more injury luck this season while others don’t. A more grounded prediction would have them around 45 wins and in the 5-8 seed range.
Barrington: Let’s not go crazy. I think probably about 45 games is a good target. They’re going to make the playoffs if they stay reasonably healthy, but there’s just a lot of growing this team has to do before they become championship contenders. This is the transition season for them to learn how to compete at that level. A level they’ll be at in a season or two.
Douglas: San Antonio’s win total projection is 44.5 according to oddsmakers. I like them to hit the over by 2 or 3 games, putting them right around 47-48 wins. That likely puts them around the 6 or 7 seed in the Western Conference. I’m betting on Wemby being a first-team All-NBA player, and the collective increase in talent across the board. If the team can stay healthy for the majority of the season, I don’t see why they can’t hit this total.
Gomez: I think, assuming decent injury luck, around 47 wins seems reasonable. Will that be enough to avoid the play-in? Last season, the seventh seed won 48 games and the sixth, 49. I can see the Spurs finishing either sixth or seventh, but if they are healthy, they should make the playoffs even if they have to play an extra game to get there.
Wilco: Last season, I offered the most optimistic win total prediction by far, and I want the record to show that before Wemby’s DVT started bothering him they were on pace to meet it! This season, I don’t know that I can top Marilyn’s over 50 wins and home court for the first round assessment. But I’ll go for 50 wins as a ceiling if all goes well.
