After six grueling months, the final series of the regular season is upon us. The Yankees secured home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series with their sweep-completing win over the White Sox last night,
but they still have plenty to play for in these final three games. They sit tied with the Blue Jays atop the AL East, but with Toronto holding the tiebreaker the Yankees need to win one more game than their north-of-the-border foes (who play Tampa Bay) to win the division outright and secure a first-round bye as well as home-field advantage through the ALCS.
Will Warren will look to put a bow on what has been an impressive rookie campaign. He likely will not win AL Rookie of the Year thanks to the exploits of a certain Nick Kurtz of the Athletics, but he could merit down-ballot votes. Among all rookie pitchers, Warren is first in games started, innings pitched, and strikeouts while placing third in fWAR behind Chad Patrick and Cade Horton. Most of Warren’s issues this season have come in the first inning, so if he can bear down and make it through the opening frame relatively unscathed, chances are he’ll turn in a good start. In 32 starts, Warren is 8-8 with a 4.35 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 164 strikeouts in 157.1 innings.
Today’s opener figures to be the toughest matchup of the series with Baltimore’s emerging ace Trevor Rogers on the mound. It is remarkable how he has flipped the script following a disastrous performance following his deadline acquisition from the Marlins in 2024. Since making his season debut on May 24th, Rogers is tops in ERA and owns the fourth-best fWAR of any starter with at least 100 innings pitched. The Yankees got a taste of this pitcher reborn when the two teams met in Baltimore last week, managing just one hit and two walks across six scoreless innings leading to their sole loss in that four-game set. In 17 starts, Rogers is 9-2 with a 1.35 ERA (298 ERA+), 2.42 FIP, and 100 strikeouts in 106.2 innings.
The Yankees go with their platoon lineup with the southpaw on the mound. That means Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, and Ryan McMahon all drop to the bench while Jazz Chisholm Jr. also gets the day off. Cody Bellinger starts in center and Austin Slater in left, while in the infield we get a rare lineup featuring both José Caballero and Anthony Volpe, the former playing second, and Amed Rosario starts at the hot corner.
The Orioles field an almost fully homegrown lineup, all but one of the nine starters drafted/signed and developed by the organization. The odd man out is Tyler O’Neill, who has been one of the worst qualified hitters in baseball in his debut season with the O’s. Dylan Beavers has been on a tear since his call-up in August while two of Baltimore’s top position player prospects bat eighth and ninth in Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo.
How to Watch:
Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. EDT
TV broadcast: YES | MASN | MLB Network (out-of-market only)
Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 | 98 Rock 97.9 FM, WBAL 1090 AM
Online stream: Gotham Sports APP, MASN+
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