The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner coming into 2025, Chris Sale had another really good season. Unlike 2024, though, he wasn’t able to steer clear of the bizarre sort of injury that always seems to find him, and spent a bunch of time on the shelf, just like most of his rotation-mates.
How acquired
During the 2023-2024 offseason, the Braves acquired Chris Sale from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for infielder Vaughn Grissom. Atlanta was searching for another starting pitcher to complement
an already deep rotation featuring Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and veteran Charlie Morton.
At the time, Sale’s most recent innings total of 102 2/3 innings was his highest in three seasons, as he had barely pitched in 2021-2022, and missed 2020 entirely. His ailments included rib and pinkie injuries, along with Tommy John Surgery. The Braves made a gamble that Sale would be his dominant pitching self without the issues that would keep him off the field, and boy, did it pay off.
What were the expectations?
Although the left-hander delivered an outstanding 2024 season, it ended on a sour note. Back spasms forced Sale to be scratched from Game 2 of the Wild Card Series doubleheader against the New York Mets, a substantial blow for the Braves even had they managed to advance. All that aside, though, 2024 reversed the conception of Sale as an immensely talented but always injured hurler. He posted 6.4 fWAR and a 57/53/66 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) in 177 2/3 innings. That was his highest innings and fWAR total since 2017, the best FIP- of his career, and his best xFIP- since 2019.
While one resurgent season does not necessarily revive a career, the Braves were still penciling in Sale as their ace for 2025. Even factoring in the risk of injury, he was expected to provide above-average production in total. ZiPS, for example, had his point estimate at 3.3 WAR in under 140 innings, essentially a 5 WAR-per-season rate but with some serious time missed baked in.
2025 Results
In the end, Sale’s 2025 was more in line with expectations than his 2024, because he did not manage to avoid the weird injury that scrapped part of his season. In this case, the weird injury was him fracturing his ribs diving for a ball — while holding a 5-0 lead over the Mets in the ninth inning of said game. Sale ended up missing about two months, or about a third of the season, as a result. The injury was somewhat inconsequential because even if Sale hadn’t gotten hurt, his presence alone wouldn’t have been enough to stem the tide of problems that led tot he Braves missing the playoffs for the first time in seven years.
On the season, Sale put up 3.6 fWAR with a 61/67/73 line in 125 2/3 innings. That was a little worse than he managed in 2024, but it’s also possible that the time he missed would’ve featured starts good enough to align those two sets of performances. On a rate basis, he was even better than his point estimate projection; in the end, he pretty much gave the Braves exactly “3+ WAR in aggregate.”
Sale was at 60/67/78 before the injury, and came back to post a 64/64/58 line. He didn’t seem to show any ill effects from the layoff.
What Went Right?
The numbers speak for themselves. Sale continued to make adjustments as needed and was essentially dominant once again. He also avoided any kind of pitching-related injury, though unfortunately, it was the weird stuff that got to him anyway.
One key adjustment came in the form of a slightly higher arm slot at release. That change became noticeable around May, which coincided with the stretch in which many of his most dominant outings occurred. Rob Friedman — better known as Pitching Ninja — highlighted this tweak by sharing an overlay comparing Sale’s arm angle in April versus May.
Sale put up an uncharacteristic 114/84/84 line in April, with a couple of very un-Sale-esque blow-ups against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, and only a couple of starts where he really looked like the Cy Young Award winner of yesteryear. With the adjustment, he reeled off a bunch of fantastic starts and really only had one or two hiccups the rest of the way.
He was, as expected of him, just hilariously dominant at times. On September 16, he destroyed the Nationals with a 9/0 K/BB ratio in eight innings in a doubleheader nightcap — allowing runners to advance past first only via stolen base or wild pitch — while the Braves and Nationals battled to a 0-0 standstill before the Braves scored five in the tenth to win.
What Went Wrong?
One word: June.
June marked the beginning of a domino effect in which Braves starting pitchers began landing on the Injured List, and Sale was not exempt. Of course, because it was Sale, he didn’t go down with “elbow tightness” or anything — he hurt himself diving to snag a tapper from Juan Soto.
At the time, he was in the midst of a dominant stretch, posting a 28/56/71 line over nine starts. Sale was the third domino to fall in terms of the Braves’ rotation, but not the last.
While not really a bad start, the alarm bells about Sale’s arm slot and/or something being “not right” started going off around April 8, when he faced the Phillies. Though the Braves won the game eventually, 7-5, Sale had a very atypical outing where he got knocked around by Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Three singles plated a run in the first, and after the Braves got a three-run homer from Sean Murphy, the Phillies went single-single-Schwarber triple-Castellanos double off Sale. Schwarber then added a homer off Sale in the fifth. It was the first of three straight starts where Sale didn’t make it through the fifth, and this outing sort of presaged his eventual tinkering, even if it was okay on its face with a 5/0 K/BB ratio.
2026 Outlook
The Braves appear ready to run it back with Sale in hopes of a better overall outcome. They exercised Sale’s $18 million club option for 2026 (duh). Sale has consistently expressed his love for competing and his belief that he still has more to offer.
Steamer projects Sale for a 4+ WAR season with 169 innings, which seems to discount the Chris Sale Wacky Injury factor. ZiPS 2026 is like ZiPS 2025, but with what appears to be a slight adjustment for aging (or Sale’s slightly-worse overall performance in 2025), with 2.9 WAR as a point estimate in 125 innings. That’s still a fantastic rate basis for the veteran, but he’ll need to stay on the field and avoid either metaphorically or literally stepping on a rake to crest that total.
