After winning seven of eight to lock down a playoff spot, often syncing timely hitting with good pitching, the team has been out of balance for two days. Thursday night, the Cubs got one of their better pitching performances of the year but no offense. Friday, they got a decent amount of offense, but the pitching got knocked around. The net result? Two losses. So overjoyed to run into a team with their backs against the wall at home in the last 10 days of the season.
Thursday’s game definitely had
that kind of playoff feel (even if the odds of Colin Rea starting a playoff game are nominal). Friday’s felt a little like an old-school home run derby. The Reds slugged five homers and the Cubs had two of their own. Nine of the 11 runs in this game scored on homers. Shōta Imanaga has really been wounded by homers in 2025. It’ll be interesting to see if he makes any kind of tweak heading into next season. For now, we have to just hope that as the regular season fades into the playoffs, the ball gets a little less carry and some of those homers become long, loud fly outs.
It looked for a minute like Porter Hodge was going to pitch his way back into the Cubs’ circle of trust. But after his last few performances, I feel certain he has pitched his way off of the playoff roster and that his only path to the roster will be other guys being unavailable for some reason or another. It’s a shame, he’s an easy guy to root for. But 2025 has been a mess for him.
The Cubs got help elsewhere and so this game isn’t a disaster. This team continues to creep towards the top Wild Card spot. It became obvious weeks ago that September was way more about getting guys healthy and “right” heading into the playoffs. With injuries to Kyle Tucker and Daniel Palencia, that mission wasn’t particularly accomplished. But, there is still a little more than a week to do so. I love that this team has six games at home to finish the season ahead of a home Wild Card series. Be comfortable, get things right. The Padres can be beat. Get healthy and get lined up. Win a few games along the way.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 150, 34 BF (8 IP)
- Reds: 153, 38 BF
Both teams in the “yellow” zone (15-20 pitches per inning). The Cubs at 18.75. Not quite disaster bad. This didn’t have to be a seven-run game. The homers did them in. Five walks didn’t help. On the Reds side, 17 pitches per inning isn’t a work of art. But not bad either. They allowed 11 hits and three walks. That certainly could have gone worse for them than four runs. But the usual story lately for the Cubs. The traffic was there, but they just didn’t cash in.
No one in the Reds pen had to work too hard. They’ll have a lot of arms ready to go on Saturday. On the Cubs side, Hodge threw 31 pitches. We probably don’t see him before Sunday. Taylor Rogers pitched decent over two innings, but we probably don’t see him before Sunday either after 36 pitches unless it is for a very specific two-out spot.
Three Stars:
- Matt Shaw had a double and a two-run homer.
- Ian Happ had a single, double and an RBI.
- Taylor Rogers for two shutout innings, giving the offense a chance to comeback.
Hat tip to Pete Crow-Armstrong with two singles and a run scored. But he also had a caught stealing. He continues to show signs of life.
Game 154, September 19: Reds 7, Cubs 4 (88-66)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matt Shaw (.179). 2-4, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Ian Happ (.094). 2-5, 2B, RBI
- Sidekick: Moisés Ballesteros (.044). 0-0, BB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Porter Hodge (-.306). IP, 7 BF, 3 H, BB, 3 ER, 2 K (L 2-2)
- Goat: Shōta Imanaga (-170). 5 IP, 20 BF, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 R (3 ER), 4 K
- Kid: Michael Busch (-.086). 0-2
WPA Play of the Game: Spencer Steer’s two-run homer with one out in the sixth inning broke a 4-4 tie (.244)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Matt Shaw’s fourth inning two-run homer briefly gave the Cubs a two-run lead. (.220)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Colin Rea 160 out 163 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Jameson Taillon +19
- Cade Horton +18
- Shōta Imanaga/Matthew Boyd +17
- Willi Castro/Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -19.33
- Carson Kelly -23
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: The Cubs clinched a berth in the 2025 postseason. We will no longer monitor any of the teams who can no longer catch the Cubs. The only other teams that matter in any way at this point are the Padres, Mets and Brewers. The Mets can only win 89 if they win out and the Cubs have now won 88, so the Mets will also no longer be relevant soon. Padres (WC 2) lose (Cubs up 5). Mets (WC 3) win (Cubs up 8). Brewers lose (Cubs down 6). The Brewers magic number relative to the Cubs is 3. The Cubs magic number relative to the Mets is 1. The Cubs magic number relative to the Padres is 4.
If the Cubs drop the ball this weekend, they’ll give the Mets more to play for next week at Wrigley. Winning games against the Reds helps the Mets. Though the Giants and Diamondbacks are all in that team photo regardless, chasing that last spot.
Up Next: Game three of the four-game set and game nine of 10 straight. Javier Assad (3-1, 4.23, 27.2 IP) makes his sixth start and seventh appearance of the season. He’s won his last three appearances, including one in relief. He hasn’t faced the Reds in his short season. He was 0-1 in two starts against the Reds last year and was tagged for seven runs in just 11 innings of work. He was hit pretty hard in Cincinnati.
29-year-old Zack Littell starts for the Reds. The righty (9-8, 3.86, 177 IP) is making his 31st start of the season. For the former 11th round pick of the Mariners in 2013 (327th overall), these are career highs in starts and innings pitched. He’s got an odd 0-0 with a 5.40 over his last seven (36.2 IP). Perhaps tailing a little bit here at the end. He had a 3.56 ERA at the All-Star break and he’s got a 6.19 ERA in September.
Get back on track. Grind one out and give yourself a winning trip and a chance to split this series.
