2026 MLB Draft Preview: AJ Gracia scouting report.
The 2026 is less than a week away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.
Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three
picks. Today we are looking at University of Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia.
AJ Gracia is a 6’3”, 195 lb. lefthanded hitting outfielder at the University of Virginia. Coming out of high school in New Jersey in 2023, Gracia was in the back half of the BA top 500 draft list that year but went undrafted. He spent two years at Duke before transferring to Virginia when his coach at Duke took the Virginia job. Gracia turns 22 in October.
Gracia is a well-rounded hitter with quality pitch recognition and excellent contact rates. He rarely chases out of the strike zone — Baseball America calls him “hyper-selective” — and set a school record for walks at Duke in his sophomore season. He is strong and makes good contact with a swing that’s described as “uphill,” but his exit velocities aren’t as impressive as you’d like to see. He has above-average raw power that translate well into game power due to his contact ability. He’s also seen as being able to potentially add some power going forward.
Gracia played right field for Duke as a freshman, and has primarily been a center fielder the past two seasons. However, he’s not considered a particularly strong defender, and there’s a very good likelihood he ends up having to move to a corner outfield spot, though MLB Pipeline says his “excellent instincts and efficient routes” give him a chance to stick in center. His arm is underpowered for right field, so if he does have to move off out of center field, he will probably end up in left field. His speed and his arm both get 45 grades from BA and MLB Pipeline.
As a freshman, Gracia slashed .305/.440/.559 with 48 walks against 55 Ks in 278 plate appearances, with 14 homers. His sophomore season saw him slash .293/.449/.558 in 285 plate appearances, with 15 homers, 57 walks and 36 Ks. This year for Virginia — still in the ACC — he slashed .354/.489/.632 in 272 plate appearances, homering 14 times, drawing 47 walks and striking out 38 times.
Baseball America has Gracia at #15 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Gracia at #19 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Gracia at #27 on his top 150 list. Keith Law has Gracia at #22 on his board. Fangraphs has Gracia at #2 on their board. Baseball Prospectus has Gracia at #16 on their top 30 draft board.
In the June 8 Baseball America mock draft, Carlos Collazo has Condon going to the Astros at #17, though he’s mentioned as a possibility with a number of teams before then, beginning with the Orioles at #7. The BA staff draft on June 15 has Gracia going to the Marlins at #14. The BA mock draft 5.0 of June 29 has Gracia going to the Diamondbacks at #15, though he’s also mentioned with a half-dozen other teams ahead of them. The BA staff draft 4.0 on July 6 has Gracia going to the Cardinals at #13. Jonathan Mayo’s June 11 mock draft has Gracia going to the Astros at #17. Jim Callis’s June 18 mock draft has Gracia mocked to the Cardinals at #13. The June 25 Callis/Mayo mock has Gracia going to the D-Backs at #15. Jonathan Mayo’s July 2 mock draft has Gracia going to the Rockies at #10. Law’s June 10 mock draft Gracia going to the Cubs at #23. Law’s July 6 mock has Gracia going to the Mariners at #24. Kiley McDaniel’s June 18 mock draft does not have Gracia going in the first 40 picks.
Gracia seems likely to go somewhere in the teens, and could well be off the board when the Rangers pick. Texas would have to really like his contact ability and plate discipline, though the lack of upper end exit velocities doesn’t necessarily fit what they are looking for in a position player.
Gracia’s future likely hinges on his ability to generate more power going forward. If a team thinks that there’s more exit velocity they can tap into, or that will come as he fills out, he’s got value as a guy who would offer above-average OBPs and above-average power. If not, his defensive limitations and lack of speed make him limited as far as major league value is concerned.
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