UFC Shanghai happens this weekend (Sat., Aug. 29, 2026) inside Shanghai Oriental Center in Shanghai, China, streaming live on Paramount+ (starting at 3 AM ET.!). The main event features one of the longest-tenured Chinese fighters in the promotion.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong is a match-up of Top 10 Bantamweights, with Nurmagomedov looking at a possible title shot with a win. Song will be trying to upset that possibility and send the Shanghai crowd home happy.
The co-main event is Yan Xiaonan
vs. Denise Gomes in a match-up of hard-hitting Strawweights. Rounding out the main card is Aoriqileng vs. Kai Asakura, Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji, Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. and Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas.
The featured “Prelims” bout is Namsrai Batbayar vs. Andre Lima. The undercard also has Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas and Jack Jenkins vs. Sean Woodson.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC Shanghai Main Card Money Line Odds
Umar Nurmagomedov (-500) vs. Song Yadong (+300)
Nurmagomedov has looked flawless since failing to wrest the UFC Bantamweight title from Merab Dvalishvili in January 2025. Since that unanimous decision loss (where he gave Dvalishvili plenty of problems), Nurmagomedov has dominated Mario Bautista and Deiveson Figueiredo for unanimous decision wins. He had been booked to fight David Martinez in July, but that was scrapped due to an injury to Martinez.
Song has been inconsistent over the past few years. He looked good in his last fight, submitting Figueiredo at May’s UFC Macau card (see it here). That was Song’s first submission win since his 2017 UFC debut. Before beating the former Flyweight champ, Song lost a decision to former Bantamweight champ Sean O’Malley. And before that he beat former Flyweight and Bantamweight champ Henry Cejudo. That was a weird one, though, with the decision being given to Song after an eye poke brought the bout to an early close. The fight only went long enough for a decision because referee Jason Herzog convinced a blinded Cejudo to stay in the fight.
I’m finding it very hard to build a case for Song in this fight. It feels painfully obvious that Nurmagmedov is going to take him down, on repeat, and spend minutes at a time in top position. Song’s takedown defense is 73 percent, which is pretty good. But Nurmagomedov is one of the best takedown artists in the game.
And I don’t think Nurmagomedov is going to have much trouble taking Song down. Song has looked predictable and one-dimensional, to the point of being monotonous, in some of his recent fights. I think the tape on him, and what he shows early on, will make things pretty easy for Team Khabib to design takedown entries and finishes that will work well for them.
The big question, for me then, is whether this is a five round domination or whether we see Nurmagomedov convert all his ground control into a submission. Nurmagomedov has favored position over submission throughout his career. 63 percent of his UFC wins are decision. That’s a big reason why there’s not been much enthusiasm for him getting title shots over the years. At 30, this might be a make or break time for him, though. He might need to start being more aggressive looking for finishes to both get himself another shot and possibly the belt.
Will this fight be a sign of this change?
The bookies don’t think so. They have this going long. The round total is 4.5 and the over is -245! Fight To Go The Distance is just -225, too.
I’d love to see Nurmagomedov be more aggressive and sacrifice safety on the ground for a big finish. But I just don’t know if he has it in him. And also, let’s not forget, that Song has never been submitted. The only time he was finished in UFC was due to a cut suffered against Cory Sandhagen.
Nurmagomedov by decision is -170 and that’s a pretty solid bet. You can also get Nurmagomedov -5.5 at -145. Against Figueiredo and Bautista he won 30-27 on all scorecards. And he got a 50-45 and two 49-46s over Sandhagen. That 5.5 feels like a pretty small number compared to that.
I’ll take the point spread and that covers me just in case Nurmagomedov switches up his style and hunts for a finish.
Best bet: Umar Nurmagomedov -5.5 (-145)
Yan Xiaonan (-155) vs. Denise Gomes (+130)
It’s been a year and six months since Yan last fought. That was the lopsided unanimous decision loss to Virna Jandiroba. That dropped her UFC record to 9-4. The 37-year-old is best known for her wins over Mackenzie Dern and Jessica Andrade (by TKO) to set up a title fight with her compatriot Zhang Weili. Yan looked a level, or two, below Zhang in that title fight, losing 49-45 across the scorecards.
Gomes might have some revenge on her mind in this fight. She’s one of Andrade’s proteges. The 26-year-old has been knocking girls silly since signing with UFC in 2022. She’s 6-2 but has three KO/TKOs wins and some pretty one-sided beatdowns. Her last win was back in November, against the veteran Tecia Pennington.
Yan is trending down and Gomes is trending up, but — in my opinion — it’s really up in the air whether they have passed each other on those trajectories. I feel Yan might still be a little too polished for Gomes right now, despite her advanced age. Yan is also extremely tough and durable, as demonstrated by lasting five round with Zhang despite absorbing 106 sig. strikes (and surviving a 10-8 round). So I don’t think Gomes’ firepower will be unusual for Yan or something that’s able to stop her.
If Yan isn’t going down, then I have question marks over whether Gomes can win a decision over her. I think this is going to be a decent and fairly competitive kickboxing match, but I think Yan will look like the more polished fighter throughout. And that should carve out a decision for her.
Best bet: Yan Xiaonan moneyline (-155)
Aoriqileng (+340) vs. Kai Asakura (-440)
Aoriqileng was beat-up by Cody Haddon during the promotion’s last trip to China. He was finished in part due to a brutal knee to the body (see it here). Prior to that ‘The Mongolian Murderer’ finished Cody Gibson in just 21 seconds (see that here). Aoriqileng has also fought Cody Durden, losing a decision back in 2021. He’s now 4-5 and 1 NC in UFC action.
Former RIZIN Bantamweight champion Asakura was signed to UFC as a Flyweight title challenger (despite never making that weight since 2017). That didn’t go very well for him. Alexandre Pantoja mopped the floor with him and got the submission in the second round (see it here). Asakura’s lack of grappling was exposed by Tim Elliott in his next fight, which he also lost by second round submission (see it here). UFC then booked him at Bantamweight against a striker (Cameron Smotherman) and Asakura delivered a first round KO (see it here).
Aoriqileng has over-performed in the past, but I’m a little worried for him here. Asakura is an incredibly dynamic striker, especially when he’s not drained by a cut to Flyweight. Aoriqileng is the better wrestler than him (hell, I might be a better wrestler than him), but he’s not so good that his wrestling can change the fight before Asakura gets a chance to get his licks in. Aoriqileng only lands 1.11 takedowns per fifteen minutes and his accuracy is a so-so 46 percent.
So I think Asakura is going to spark out Aoriqileng in this one and I think it might happen quickly (since Aoriqileng has a less than average sig. striking defense at 46 percent and he absorbs a whopping 5.66 sig. strikes a minute).
The round total on this one is 2.5 and I think that’s nuts. Give me the under.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-220)
Alex Perez (+190) vs. Sumudaerji (-230)
This is a do-over for the last fight these guys tried to have, in Macau in May. That fight got into the second round before Sumudaerji hit Perez with a devastating groin shot. That was very painful to watch, as was Perez squirming for five solid minutes before the fight was called.
This was just another chapter in a very weird recent career for Perez. In April 2024, he appeared to turn a corner on his career with a right hook KO over Matheus Nicolau (see it here). That was his debut main event and he was a slight underdog. He was then quickly matched up with the ascending Tatsuro Taira. He lost that fight after Taira twisted during a standing back mount to intentionally destabilize Perez. The twist resulted in Perez blowing out his ACL. The surgery and recovery that followed kept him out for well over a year. He returned with a fight against Asu Almabayev. He was winning that fight (as an underdog) before getting guillotined in the third round. After that he fought Charles Johnson, again as an underdog, and he knocked Johnson out cold in the first round (see it here). The no contest with Sumudaerji came five months after that.
Sumudaerji’s past few years have been far less dramatic. He lost a decision to Johnson in 2024, but then won three straight. All those were decisions, over Mitch Raposo, Kevin Borjas and Jesus Aguilar.
In their aborted first fight, Perez found it tough to get past Sumudaerji’s long reach advantage. He tried to crash through and land combos, but Sumadaerji rather easily stepped out to the side and stayed out of range. Sumadaerji dropped Perez with a counter early in the second. He wasn’t able to get much going on the ground after that, but Perez was saved by an odd decision from the referee to let him stand up. The big groin kick that ended the fight happened soon after.
Sumudaerji was trending towards a win in that fight. So it makes sense to take him again here.
Best bet: Sumudaerji moneyline (-230)
Bilal Hasan (-650) vs. Nilson Rojas (+470)
Hasan made a big splash on Contender Series two weeks ago, scoring a 45 second TKO. He’s a former CFFC Flyweight champion. He’s 9-0 and only 25 years-old.
Rojas makes the long trip to China from Peru. He’s one of a number of fighters on this card to never feature on UFC feeder products. He’s 27 and also 9-0. He’s never fought outside of Peru. He had a long amateur career, which included a loss to Kevin Borjas.
This matchmaking is really making me scratch my head. UFC has a massive roster of fighters, including perhaps a majority on very affordable Contender Series contracts. Why are they bringing in guys off low level regional circuits to fill up these cards? Are they that cheap? Or are they simply hunting for viral KOs that can make waves on TikTok?
This fight feels designed to open up the main card with one of those viral moments. Hasan looked dynamite on Contender Series, albeit against a can who might have been brought in as fodder to generate yet another viral finish.
Not everything goes to plan for UFC (I just watched Bella Mir get pasted). But I think Hasan is going to do what’s expected of him in this slot.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+120)
Liu Ce (-192) vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (+160)
Rodrigues Jr. made his proper UFC debut in July and lost, while a favorite, against Felipe Franco. He lost that bout by second round TKO. That was the first loss of his career. He had to wait a long time for that moment, too. He won on Contender Series last October, but had to serve a NSAC suspension for a positive test for nandrolone metabolites.
Liu is just 3-1 in MMA, with most of his combat sports action coming in the kickboxing ring. He’s got a number of kickboxing wins by leg kick TKO. He’s a massive guy, too. He’s 6’5” with a near 78 inch reach. I’m hoping he turns out to be as fun as all that might suggest. I’ll take him here, despite the lack of intel, since Rodrigues was such a dud last time out.
Best bet: Liu Ce moneyline (-192)
UFC Shanghai ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Andre Lima (-245) vs. Namsrai Batbayar (+200)
Lima looked mediocre in his loss to Kevin Borjas in August. He came into that one as the huge -770 favorite and as one of the few undefeated fighters in UFC. That was his first fight in more than one year. His 4-0 start to UFC life included wins over Daniel Barez, Felipe dos Santos and Mitch Raposo.
Batbayer, meanwhile, is coming off this year’s Road to UFC season. He’s 3-0 in those bouts with two TKOs and a submission. He’s 10-1 as a professional. The loss was to fellow Road to UFC grad, Nyamjargal Tumendemberel.
At times, Lima has looked like a dark horse Flyweight contender. But, against Borjas he was stiff, predictable and just seemed off his game. I’m not sure how much stock I should put in that performance against what we saw him do in the past fights, albeit against mostly opponents who have left UFC.
Batbayar looks like an interesting prospect, with plenty of pop in his striking and some good wrestling to use in case of emergencies. Though his striking is powerful, it’s very loopy. He’s not a clean striker who fires straight punches down the pipe (like Lima can). And his level of competition has been considerably lower than Lima’s (even if Lima’s schedule leaves a lot to be desired).
I’ll take Lima here. But I won’t be surprised if Batabayar gets the upset, by showing Ramazan Temirov levels of violence.
Best bet: Andre Lima moneyline (-245)
Rei Tsuruya (-650) vs. Kevin Borjas (+470)
Tsuruya looked superb when he schooled and submitted Luis Gurule in May. That was his first fight after a year on the sidelines. Prior to that hiatus, he lost a lopsided decision to future champion Joshua Van. His only other UFC appearance (outside of winning Road to UFC in 2024) is a decision over Carlos Hernandez.
Before Borjas scored his big upset over Andre Lima, the Peruvian was on a two fight losing skid with a TKO loss to Imanol Rodriguez (see it here) and a decision to Sumudaerji. He’s now 2-4 in UFC. His two other losses are to Alessandro Costa and Joshua Van, though.
You really don’t know what you’re going to get with Borjas. Sometimes he looks like he’s put it all together and is capable of mixing up his game with slick boxing and serviceable wrestling and sometimes he seems rash and sloppy. It’s imperative for him to stay on his feet against Tsuruya. Tsuruya’s ground game is extremely dangerous. In the past, it was sometimes too pretty to be effective. But against Gurule he shelved a lot of his overly complicated moves to just hunt down what had the best chance of success. I expect he will do the same if he gets Borjas down and that he’ll be able to find a submission there.
Borjas has a good 72 percent takedown defense on paper. The context around that number is impressive, too. He shut out Lima, Sumudaerji and Costa, who went for a combined seven takedowns against him.
Tsuruya took down Gurule once in their fight and that’s all he needed. He attempted three takedowns in the bout. In his loss against Van he went 4-21 on takedowns, which is why his career takedown accuracy is a paltry 34 percent. After what we saw Van do opposite Tatsuro Taira, though, I think we can chalk that up to being an early sign of Van’s brilliance and not a deficiency on the part of Tsuruya.
With the odds as they are, I’m going to take a chance on the good Kevin Borjas showing up in Shanghai and him being good enough to stay on his feet long enough to avoid an early submission.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+110)
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Long Xiao (-180) vs. Franceso Nuzzi (+150)
Long had a very weird fight with Cody Garbrandt in March. He nailed Garbrandt with a groin shot in that fight, which was hard enough to make the former champ throw up. Long was deducted two whole points for that (it wasn’t his first foul of the bout). Despite the two point deduction, many onlookers still scored the fight for Long (believing he’d won all three rounds). Long is now 1-3 in UFC, having lost to Su Young You and Chang Ho Lee, as well (both fights where he had the wrestling disadvantage).
Nuzzi comes over to UFC after a long stint in the PFL/Bellator orbit. He had more fights fall through than not during that time, though. Most recently he fought in Cage Warriors. His last fight was a no contest after… guess what? He landed a terrible groin shot on Manoel Silva.
Nuzzi has a classic Muay Thai style. He’s got a very fast release on his strikes (especially his kicks). He has very hard low kicks, too. I think he’s going to give Long a close fight in Shanghai.
Long fights more square footed and his unpredictable and wild style has been a bit of a blessing and a curse for him. He does fight with a lot of personality and grit, though. And I think he might be physically stronger than Nuzzi (who is a little sleight).
For this fight, I’m picking the cleaner technique, though. That’s what I see from Nuzzi. I think his leg kicks will slow Long down and make him an easy target.
Best bet: Francesco Nuzzi moneyline (+150)
Jack Jenkins (+124) vs. Sean Woodson (-148)
We haven’t seen Jenkins since he took a unanimous decision over Ramon Tavares last September. Before that he was submitted by Gabriel Santos (see it here). He’s 4-2 in UFC, which includes an impressive stoppages over Herbert Burns (see it here).
Woodson has been out even longer than Jenkins. His last fight was in April, 2025. That’s when he lost, by TKO, to Dan Ige. The finish was a tad early, though (see it here). That broke a seven fight undefeated streak for him. His best win is probably his flying knee finish on Terrance McKinney to earn his contract back on Contender Series in 2019.
I’m happy to see Jenkins back in action. I really enjoy his boxing (especially his body work) and he has some really nasty low kicks. I’m not thrilled to see Woodson back. I don’t particularly enjoy Woodson’s rangy high volume and low power striking game. I think Woodson probably wins this one, though.
Woodson will have a ridiculous ten inch reach advantage. He’s also much taller. Woodson’s outside game will be very easy for him to implement with that kind of size and reach advantage. And he’s going to be able to pop Jenkins in the nose every time Jenkins throws one of his leg kicks.
Best bet: Sean Woodson moneyline (-148)
Lawrence Lui (-305) vs. Hector Santiago (+245)
Lui capped his Road to UFC run with a spirited split decision win over Sulangrangbo at UFC 325 in January. He was a +230 underdog in that fight. The Australian is now 8-1 and on a five fight winning streak.
Santiago is a total UFC newcomer with no appearances on Contender Series, TUF, etc. He’s fought in LFA, Karate Combat and Jungle Fight. He’s also done some boxing and kickboxing. He’s 6-1 in MMA with all but one win coming via strikes.
Lui’s wrestling looked good in his Road to UFC finale, getting seven takedowns on fifteen attempts. His striking wasn’t amazing, though, with him landing just 52 of 150 sig. strikes (just 34 percent).
Santiago hangs his hat on his striking and it looks pretty clean based on what I’ve seen. He throws mean knees to the body. I haven’t gotten the chance to see what his takedown defense is like. But, even so, I think his above average striking might be more threatening in this bout than Lui’s average wrestling (especially if Lui can’t find his target with his strikes).
Best bet: Hector Santiago moneyline (+250)
Jingnan Xiong (+205) vs. Julia Polastri (-250)
The Panda Xiong came into UFC with a lot of fanfare, due to her long title reign in ONE Championship (and wins over Angela Lee). But she failed to produce in her debut, losing to Angela Hill (while not looking very special). The 38 year-old is 19-3 in her career.
Polastri dropped a decision to Talita Alencar in April. That loss ruined the momentum she had after her total destruction of former title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz in October. She earned a Performance of the Night bonus for that TKO (see it here). She’s now 2-3 in UFC.
I was high on Xiong when she appeared in UFC, but her debut was very disappointing. At 38 she looks a long way from her top ONE Championship days. I think there’s a great chance Polastri gets the win here.
Polastri is a front-runner who seems to lose heart if she gets off to a bad start, especially if she’s not winning the wrestling battles. Xiong is a pure striker, so Polastri should get some space and time to warm-up with her striking and perhaps even implement her own wrestling. Because of that, I don’t think she’ll get demoralized and fade like I’ve seen in some fights.
Best bet: Julia Polastri moneyline (-250)
Meng Ding (-148) vs. Cam Nelson (+124)
Meng lost a split decision to Jose Souza in his debut in May. He showed some heart and toughness in that bout against Souza (who almost threw the fight away by hot-dogging it). The 31-year-old Meng is now 35-10 as a pro with a career that stretches back to 2015.
Nelson comes right out of the regional scene for this one. The 28-year-old Canadian is 7-1 and has never appeared on a ZUFFA owned property. He won the Fight League Atlantic welterweight title in his last fight, with a second round TKO. He’s fought his entire career inside that promotion.
There’s not a lot of tape on Nelson, but I’m not that impressed by the few bits and pieces I’ve seen. He’s an aggressive guy who runs down opponents, but leaves himself pretty open for counters. He was dropped in a fight he was totally dominating because of that.
Meng has been very competitive in both his UFC debut and Contender Series fights and has been willing to brawl. Though he looks more technical than what I’ve seen from Nelson. I think he might be able to connect on the counter and earn his first UFC win.
Best bet: Meng Ding moneyline (-148)
UFC Shanghai Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action …
Umar Nurmagomedov by submission (+400)
I don’t think there’s a huge chance of this happening, but this is why it’s in the long shot section. I think Nurmagomedov is going to be spending about fifteen minutes on top of Song in this fight. So there’s a great chance that turns into a submission, especially if Song gets frustrated and leaves himself open.
Three Fight Parlay: Aoriqileng vs. Asakura Under 2.5, Liu vs. Rodrigues Jr Under 1.5, Hasan vs. Rojas Under 1.5 (+372)
These are all fun fights with some bona fide KO artists. The total on Aoriqileng and Asakura feels too high for me and I can see the other fights ending in the first round, too (especially since I think UFC is trying to architect that happening more and more).
Namsrai Batbayer to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+600)
I compared Batbayer to Ramazan Temirov up top. I don’t know if that will prove to be true, but he hits like a truck and isn’t afraid to swing. Maybe he makes a mark on Saturday and takes out a formerly highly considered Flyweight.
