Welcome back to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. Make sure you’re flipping through pages 2-5 to see everything broken out by component and the overall performance of the STEP Differential in individual games. Infogram below:
The battle for the NFC sure is trending toward an NFC West or NFC North team to take it. The STEP Differential largely agrees with that as the Rams (+58) pace the league. The Seahawks (+38), Packers (+37), Lions (+36), and Bears
(+33) rank 3-6 overall with only the Broncos (+44) as an AFC representative in the top 6. Where are the 49ers? They’re one of only two teams, along with the 7-6 Panthers, with a negative STEP Differential and a winning record. That doesn’t mean the 49ers aren’t a good football team – they’re certainly well coached, but it does indicate there are some issues with this squad that may limit their competitiveness down the stretch and into the post-season. They also have a couple of games down the stretch to get to 11 wins comfortably in the Titans and Colts.
Historically, teams that finish with a negative STEP Differential fair poorly in the post-season, particularly against any team with a strong STEP Differential. Much of that is just weak teams failing that barely make the playoffs getting beat in the first round, but it’s something to watch.
The Chargers had a gritty win against the Eagles on Monday Night Football, losing the STEP Differential by 5 but coming out on top. Seems ridiculous that the team that forced 5 turnovers would lose the STEP for the game but the Chargers gave the ball away 3 times themselves and lost the sack differential 7-1 and the explosive play differential by 3. It took overtime but they were able to grind out the win.
The biggest single game STEP Differential happened this week with the poor New York Jets losing to the Dolphins at -15 STEP Differential. That pushes the Jets to -71 on the year and the single season mark of -101 by the Browns last year is at least back on the table. They’re nearing top 10 (since 2006) territory already. Yikes.
