What is wisdom?
The Wild Card race in the National League is exciting. Three teams from three different divisions are battling for that final play-off spot ever since the San Diego Padres clinched theirs this last weekend.
It is strange, but only good news comes from Los Angeles and San Diego these days:
- The Padres secured a play-off spot and will no longer need to “win” against the Diamondbacks in the series after this one.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers will almost certainly win the NL West, but will have to play in the Wild Card, because the Cubs and Phillies are, most likely, too far ahead of them.
- That means, the Dodgers might take it a bit easier in this series against Arizona.
On the other hand…
- If the Diamondbacks sweep the Dodgers, because the Dodgers are taking this series too lightly, then the Padres will be all fired up for that final series of the season to overtake the Dodgers in the NL West, because right now they are 2.5 games behind Los Angeles.
Who knows what will happen?
The Diamondbacks can still make it.
No matter what our opponents’ strategy or motivation might be, the Diamondbacks can still make the play-offs, although they are obviously no rulers of their own faith (unlike
last year when they totally blew it). However, the path to the play-offs is a tricky one:
- The Reds play Pittsburgh 3 times at home and wrap up the season with 3 away games at Milwaukee. Both opponents have nothing left to play for, with Pittsburgh being way out and the Brewers very certain of going straight to the NLDS. The Reds are just one game ahead of the Diamondbacks, but have the tie-breaker and are on a 5-game win streak.
- The Mets have been terrible and with 11 losses in their last 15 games, look destined to miss out on the play-offs. They are technically tied with the Reds, though the Reds hold the tie-breaker here as well. The Mets play the Cubs for 3 games and then the Marlins. Although both teams also have nothing left to play for, with the Cubs already certain of entering the Wild Card, they also just lost a series against the Nationals.
- The Diamondbacks are just one game ahead of both teams, although we need to make up 2 wins against the Reds. That is a pretty tough task.
The Dodgers have not been that good.
We all thought the Dodgers would walk away with the NL West and a second World Series ring was all but assured according to many pundits. I was certain about that as well. Fortunately, the omen of signing so many injury-prone pitchers became truth for the Dodgers and their injured list has been a revolving door of pitchers. The latest addition has been 2024 play-off stronghold Michael Kopech, who hit the injured list on September 19 (retro).
Kopech has a knee inflammation and could be back soon, the same cannot be said for catcher Will Smith, who has been diagnosed with a hairline fracture in his hand. His (post-)season is in jeopardy now. Gabriel Moreno knows all about that.
Smith’s 152 OPS+ will be missed and more pressure will fall onto the shoulders of Muncy, Freeman and, especially, Ohtani. The Japanese wonderboy has singlehandedly mashed the Dodgers to their most probable 12th NL West title in 13 years.
The Dodgers certainly aren’t unbeatable and Arizona knows all about that: we won a series, lost a series and split a 4-game series. Mookie Betts has offensively been a bit above average, the Dodgers 4.28 ERA is 20th in the entire league and the starting pitching is strong, but more often injured than not. It is still enough quality to win a 162-game regular season title, but if it will be enough for another World Series remains to be seen: Brewers (6-0), Cubs (4-3) and Phillies (4-2) have all three dominated in their regular season series against the Dodgers.
‘Nuff said.
We can win this. Keep the pressure on the Reds and Mets.
Matchups.
Game #1 Tue 09/23 6:40 PM MST, Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Brandon Pfaadt (ARI).
- Shohei Ohtani. 13 GS, 41.0 IP, 1 W-1 L, 3.29 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 54/9 K/BB. $2,000,000 (cash).
- Brandon Pfaadt. 31 GS, 166.2 IP, 13 W-8 L, 5.02 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 138/35 K/BB. $799,400
Ohtani returned to the mound in June after his Tommy John surgery, but has, logically, been slowly building up his pitch count in the major leagues. His ERA is in the low 3.00 but we should not attach too much value to that. Most of Ohtani’s outings were limited to 1 and 2 innings and when the Dodgers decided to let him in longer, he had a couple of rough outings against the Angels and Rockies, where he gave up 9 runs in 8.1 innings. He already threw 87 pitches a month ago, against Cincinatti, so durability is probably no longer an issue. We can expect Ohtani to go as long the Dodgers see fit. His latest performance was last week against the Phillies, when he pitched 5 scoreless innings. His 11.9 K/9 is impressive. His 4FB has been averaging 98.5 mph, though possibly somewhat inflated by the short outings.
Pfaadt was awesome against the Giants, completed 9 innings, but he was denied a win because of a lack of run support. It was a bit of a surprise after failing against the Twins, but a nice bounceback, and we now know that home-Pfaadt is of a different level than away-Pfaadt. He will pitch against the Dodgers at Chase Field, so another home game for Pfaadt, which gives us the hope we need. Pfaadt has already pitched three times against the Dodgers this season and got 2 wins and a no-decision. It went from better to worse though, although, again, the worse outings were in Los Angeles and the better one at home. Mookie Betts and Kike Hernández have had his number in the past, just like Freddie Freeman. Ohtani, though, has been held to a respectable .800 OPS.
Game #2 Wed 09/24 6:40 PM MST, Blake Snell (LAD) vs Ryne Nelson (ARI).
- Blake Snell. 10 GS, 55.1 IP, 5 W-4 L, 2.44 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 67/25 K/BB. $12,800,000 (cash).
- Ryne Nelson. 32 G, 22 GS, 148.0 IP, 7 W-3 L, 3.34 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 123/41 K/BB. $806,400
Snell was obviously out for quite some while this season and didn’t return to the big league mound until August 2. His results have been pretty good so far, although he did encounter some bumps on the road recently. However, his last 2 outings were great. While the first one was criticised by a “…but the Rockies…”-argument, his last outing against the Phillies was impressive: 7 scoreless innings, allowing 2 hits and 2 free passes on 112 pitches, striking out 12. The Diamondbacks better be warned, although we don’t really need that warning with a lifetime .548 OPS for the Snakes against Snell.
Fortunately, we have Ryne on the mound for Arizona. It will be just the 4th time that Nelson will pitch as a starter against the Dodgers. His last time was on May 20, when he pitched 5 innings of 1-run ball and got a no-decision.
Game #3 Thu 09/25 12:40 PM MST, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs Zac Gallen (ARI).
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 29 GS, 167.2 IP, 11 W-8 L, 2.58 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 194/57 K/BB. $10,000,000 (cash).
- Zac Gallen. 32 GS, 187.2 IP, 13 W-14 L, 4.70 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 172/63 K/BB. $13,500,000.
Last time I wrote about Zac Gallen he had 11 wins behind his name. Since then he has added another 2 wins to his total, in as many outings. That says all we need to know about Zac. We know Gallen has been on fire ever since no team wanted him at the trade deadline. That obviously upset Gallen in a good way and he has been dominant ever since. He hasn’t been flawless the past few weeks, but it has been enough to get the Diamondbacks in a win-situation and we do not expect anything else from the righty in what could be his last game in a Diamondbacks shirt. Let’s hope Chase Field gives him a fine applause for his contributions in what has been quite a terrific career as a Snake, although not as dominant as we hoped for.
Who cares about the walks if you don’t give up any hits? Yamamoto has been a bit more generous with the free passes when compared to last season, but hardly ever allows a hit. Yamamoto is a terrific pitcher and if you look at his statcast page, even an amateur eye like mine can appreciate the absolute beauty that is his command. Were it not for Paul Skenes, he would most certainly be one of the outsiders to snatch the NL Cy Young award.
