As we inch closer and closer to the offseason, the more we try to pick apart what the roster picture looks like as of right now and how that picture could be manipulated before opening day to give the Cardinals their best chance to win in 2027. Perhaps I’ve been too gullible in believing them when they say they expect Nathan Church to open 2027 as the starting center fielder. But the devil’s advocate of that stance is that they’re being extremely transparent in their approach to the offseason, and they truly
believe that they don’t need to commit any substantial resources to the position. The latter of those two viewpoints has drawn the ire of a majority of the readers, which led me to create this piece today that will explore outside additions that are both realistic and have the capacity to overachieve what the incumbent might be capable of.
The question of “Could the Cardinals upgrade in center field?” is one that is easy to answer. Could they? Yes, fairly easily. Will they? TBD. We can argue about the who of it all day long, but unless they choose to take action, it’s all a moot point.
Nathan Church in 2027 slashed .247/.290/.364 -> .654 OPS; his .288 wOBA was actually higher than his .283 xwOBA, which means that, for as underwhelming as his offense was, it actually slightly outproduced what his expected production was. Further evidenced by his 81 wRC+ and his 0.7 fWAR. His +2 OAA and 90.8 MPH were both above-average rated defensive outputs, and his 28.5 MPH sprint speed rated in the 81st percentile in baseball according to Baseball Savant. Those are replacement-level stats, and I came into the season viewing Church as a 4th outfielder long-term, and his performance did not move me off that stance.
The Cardinals have pieces in their pipeline they’re excited about long-term: Tai Peete, Josiah Ragsdale, and Trevor Condon, who might eventually force the issue. Peete and Ragsdale likely will start the season in Triple-A Memphis, and if they get off to hot starts, they could be realistic options by June/July. Condon, who was just drafted 13th overall as a prepster, is likely 3-4 years away from knocking on that big league door.
The other name worth mentioning here is 2023 1st-round pick Chase Davis, who primarily plays CF and has not quite been what the Cardinals had expected when they drafted him. He parallels a lot of what Nathan Church does: a really solid defender in CF, flashes occasional power, and they go about their at-bats a little differently, with church swinging early and often; Davis is far more passive, somewhat like what some fans’ frustrations were surrounding Lars Nootbaar and his patience bordering on passivity. Davis is R5 eligible this offseason, so the Cardinals will be forced to make a decision on him. Might he instead be part of a package to get an established CF, or do they protect him and continue to throw numbers at the position and see who sticks?
I identified a few options that might intrigue you based on your current belief in the internal options. If you believe that Ragsdale/Peete are solutions, perhaps a 1-year short-term stopgap might be your best bet. If you aren’t sold on those guys and you think that Trevor Condon is the more likely future CF, perhaps a medium-term guy with years of control might be better. And perhaps if you think prospects are overrated and waiting for them to ascend is just a foolish waste of time, then young MLB-experienced long-term pieces are what might appeal to you the most.
I’ll try to provide a little something for everyone and put the onus on you, the reader, to decide what path you like the most. None of these players project to be stars, face of the franchise, or organizational direction-altering players, but guys who could factor in as everyday contributors/fringe all-star caliber depending on upside. We’ll work from short-term (most likely) to long-term.
SHORT TERM PLACEHOLDERS
CF/LF Steven Kwan – ARB 3 (1 year /11.5 million projected salary)
Kwan is the ideal 9-hole hitter in modern baseball. The subsequent 2nd lead-off hitter in a lineup as it turns over and rolls back into the top of the lineup. Kwan has no power, but that’s okay because he does everything else so exceptionally well that he still makes an impact. For fans who love throwback-style hitters who don’t strike out, put the ball in play, use their speed to manufacture hits, and can play above-average defense and steal bases. This guy is a “whiteyball” fan’s dream. .282/.382/.349 -> .731 OPS, Kwan was 15th in the AL in hits and 7th in the AL in walks. He only struck out 62 times this season and has never done so more than 75 times in a season in his career. He produced 3.8 fWAR and is a 2x All-Star in ’24 and ‘25 and has won 4 consecutive Gold Gloves. So, why would Cleveland trade him? He’s entering his final season of Salary Arbitration, and at 11.5 million, that’s a little pricey, especially when they have 12 other arb-eligible players and a team that routinely carries a bottom-10 payroll in baseball. They also have guys like Angel Martinez, Chase DeLauter, and Daniel Schneeman who can cover CF. It might cost the Cardinals some future value, but of the short-term options, he would be the best of the bunch.
CF Trent Grisham – FA
After a 2025 season in which Grisham hit 34 home runs and earned the qualifying offer, he followed it up with a performance that saw him hit .211/.308/. 395 -> .703 OPS and still managed to blast 18 home runs into the New York sky. The underlying data suggests that there wasn’t a marked difference between what he did in 2025 and what he produced in 2026. He produced a .311 wOBA that was 26 points below his .337 xWOBA and still managed a slug that was nearly .400 and an OPS that was 50 points higher than Nathan Church in 2026. Grisham produced 0.7 fWAR this season, and his defense has taken significant steps back since he went to New York, producing -5 OAA, which is a complete 180 from his 2023 in SD when he produced a +6 and was one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. I’m not totally sure what to make of that, given that he is still only 29 years old, so it shouldn’t be age-related decline. Perhaps an indictment of the Yankees’ coaching staff? A 1-year flier on a guy looking to bump his value back up, and to work with an excellent outfield coach in Jon Jay, could help him look to cash in during the 2028 offseason after all of the CBA hubbub is behind the league.
MEDIUM TERM PLAYERS WITH UPSIDE
OF Colton Cowser ARB 1 (1 year/2.2 million projected salary)
After an impressive breakout 2024 season, Cowser has followed it up with back-to-back underachieving seasons in Baltimore. Slashing .226/.317/.370 -> .687 OPS. On the one hand, that’s pretty underwhelming, and the 30% K rate and lack of consistently squaring up the ball (17.5%) does give some pause. Considering his .144 ISO, he still produced slightly above-average power, produced an 11.7 BB%, which was 81st percentile, and was credited with a +10 OAA, which means he can really go get the baseball. Cowser is Nathan Church with power potential, and that’s something that shouldn’t be overlooked. It seems as though Cowser would benefit from a change of scenery, where in Baltimore the outfield picture is very crowded, and in St. Louis he could be given every opportunity to take hold of an everyday OF job. Would the Orioles entertain a Cowser for Gorman swap and engage in a challenge trade? Maybe. Gorman could serve as quite the complement for Coby Mayo and Pete Alonso.
CF Jake McCarthy ARB 2 (1 year/4.6 million projected salary)
Jake McCarthy showed what he can do when given a chance to play every day after leaving the complex outfield picture in Arizona. Slashing .291/.334/.475 -> en route to an .809 OPS and 2.7 fWAR. He is a real spark plug of an offensive piece and can cause havoc on the bases at the big league level in the way that fans had hoped Victor Scott would provide. He stole 32 bases and ran at 30.0 ft/s, which is in the 98th percentile. Paying for guys’ career years coming out of Coors Field will generally cause fans and analysts to pause, but when you consider that what he produced was just a continuation of what he showed in AZ, he was able to recreate what he did in ‘24 and exceeded it because of volume, not necessarily because of ballpark factor alone, which should reconcile some of those concerns, and you also consider what kind of havoc he was able to create in their 3-game series in St. Louis in August. Perhaps on days the offense struggles to get going, as it did at times in ‘26, a spark plug like McCarthy to wake the guys up a little might be something worth investing a couple of resources in.
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
CF Jakob Marsee – Pre-Arb
2026 wasn’t quite the encore to the 2025 cup of coffee that Marsee obtained in 2025 when he slashed .292/.363/.478 -> .841 OPS in 234 PA. In 2026, his first full season, Marsee slashed .231/.348/.359 -> .707 OPS and produced 2.5 fWAR. A lot of the power and impact Marsee showed in 2025 didn’t carry over to 2026 due to multiple injuries suffered throughout the season; to Marsee’s credit, he continued to post and do what he could to help his team win. A quality this Cardinals organization finds endearing, perhaps to the players’ detriment, Marsee had UCL surgery on his left elbow (non-throwing) arm this month and is expected to have a 6-month recovery timetable that should put him on track for a May return in 2027; considering potential labor strife that might eat up all of April, he theorhetically, could be available for most of the season. The Cardinals would likely have to include multiple young players to pry Marsee away from Miami, though they’ve never been known to be a particularly difficult organization to pry players away from.
CF Drew Gilbert – Pre-Arb
2026 was Gilbert’s first real taste of big league baseball, and he showed really well in his opportunities. Slashing .238/.330/.394 -> .724 OPS and produced 1.7 fWAR. After being drafted by the Houston Astros and traded multiple times to the New York Mets and now the San Francisco Giants, Gilbert is no stranger to being moved around, and he could find a long-term home in St. Louis. Defensively, he was a +4 OAA and displayed an above-average throwing arm, more of an average runner in terms of sprint speed, and underlying metrics in terms of whiff%, chase%, and BB% are all positive indicators, as well as the ability to display some sneaky raw pop, producing a max EV of 110. The Giants have more young SS than they know what to do with, which could lead to one of them finding their way to CF long term, and that follows a modern philosophy of roster building, which could then theoretically make Gilbert gettable for the right price after a disaster of a 2026 season as a team; they should be open to anything.
The Cardinals don’t have many glaring holes on their roster from an offensive perspective heading into 2027, but one of the more persistent ones that continued to frustrate fans throughout the season was the play of Nathan Church in CF. Your perception of where you think the Cardinals are in their build will likely lead you to which of these plausible options could be the right answer. The Cardinals could argue their belief in Nathan Church to be capable of playing on par with some of the names listed above, and thus they don’t see a great need to make a change in CF at the start of the 2027 season. I’m somewhat indifferent on the topic, as I can see the rationale for both sides. Though I will always lean towards the direction of the higher upside just because I believe that the more high-upside players you can obtain, the greater the likelihood you are to be successful in a 162-game marathon season. I’d like to know your thoughts on the article, if there was someone presented you hadn’t really thought of, or if there’s someone you really have your eye on you think would be a perfect fit.
-Thanks for reading
