On Sunday, the (5-5) Kansas City Chiefs — now holding third place in the AFC West — will host the (8-2) Indianapolis Colts, who now lead the AFC South. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. on CBS — locally on KCTV/5.
Kansas City is coming off a devastating loss to the Denver Broncos , which saw the team fall further behind in the playoff hunt. It also virtually ended the Chiefs’ chance at winning the division.
This matchup is critical. To ensure a playoff spot, Kansas City has very little margin for error over the last seven weeks of the regular season — while Indianapolis is well-positioned to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Here are five things to watch.
1. Can the Chiefs stop running back Jonathan Taylor?
The Colts’ star running back is having an MVP-caliber season, leading the NFL in rushing yards (1,139) and rushing touchdowns (15). He also leads the league in yards after contact (891) by a wide margin.
Taylor is the centerpiece of the best offense in the league: Indianapolis is first in points per game, yards and yards per play — so if Kansas City wants a chance to win, he must be contained.
Kansas City allows 100 rushing yards per game — the ninth-fewest in the NFL — and surrenders the fourth-fewest points per game (18.1). This matchup will be enormous for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit. The defensive line, linebackers and defensive backs must be ready to rally to the ball — and stop Taylor.
2. Throwing off quarterback Daniel Jones’ rhythm
While the Indianapolis offense revolves around Taylor, quarterback Daniel Jones is having a career year as the driving force in the team’s play-action passing game. Jones has thrown the fourth-most play-action passes (86) this season, earning the fifth-most play-action passing yards (693). The Colts also utilize run-pass option (RPO) plays: Jones is tied for the fourth-most RPO pass attempts (41) and has the second-most passing yards (411) with them.
Jones has also been good at getting the ball out on time and on target: he holds the fourth-highest “on-target” throw rate in the league (79%).
Jones has been good this season — but over the last two games, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons recorded 13 sacks and four interceptions. Both teams were able to apply impactful pressure on Jones — which led to poor passes downfield — by getting Indianapolis into passing situations by limiting its running game on early downs.
So the Chiefs’ defense will face a tough task — but if it can stop the run, it should be able to find ways to disrupt Jones’ rhythm.
3. Tight ends Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren
The game could feature a passing-of-the-torch moment from future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce to budding Indianapolis superstar tight end Tyler Warren. Heading into the game, the 36-year-old Kelce is second among tight ends with 631 receiving yards, while Warren ranks third with 617.
Kelce — potentially playing in his final season — is on pace for the eighth 1,000-yard season of his career, which would be the first since 2022. Meanwhile, Warren is in the thick of the race for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Both will play key roles in Sunday’s contest.
Kelce is coming off a performance with nine catches, 91 yards and a score against the Broncos, while Warren had eight receptions for 99 yards against Atlanta in Week 10.
The Indianapolis defense has given up 726 yards to tight ends — the league’s third-highest mark — while Kansas City has allowed just 48.2 tight end receiving yards per game, which ranks as the 12th-lowest rate.
Warren is a staple of the Colts’ play-action game — and the Chiefs will probably need another big game from Kelce.
4. The Chiefs’ offense versus defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo
There have been only a handful of defensive coaches who have consistently given Chiefs head coach Andy Reid real trouble — and the Indianapolis defensive coordinator is one of them.
While running the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense from 2019 to 2024, he played a key role in the success of the Bengals’ defense in three upset wins over Kansas City in 2021 and 2022.
While in Cincinnati, Anarumo found ways to keep the Chiefs off-balance, which was most notable in the second half of the 2021’s AFC championship, during which Kansas City managed just three points — and the Bengals’ defense sealed the deal by intercepting a Mahomes pass in overtime.
Anarumo’s new unit features former Chiefs’ cornerback Charvarius Ward and All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner as his starters — although Ward is questionable to play as he recovers from a concussion.
5. Third-down conversions
Third downs are among the most critical downs in any game. The offenses of both teams have been good at converting these downs, while their defenses haven’t been good at stopping them.
Kansas City’s offense ranks ninth in third-down conversion percentage, while Indianapolis sits in eighth place. In contrast, Indianapolis ranks 27th in allowed third-down conversion rate, while Kansas City ranks 23rd.
Getting the opposing offense into third-and-long will be a key factor for both defenses — and whether each defense can then get stops on those downs is likely to make a big difference in the game.
