The New England Patriots are entering Week 12 riding high. They have won eight games in a row and at 9-2 are tied for both the best record in football and the top seed in their conference.
Standing between
them and the momentum staying alive is a Cincinnati Bengals squad that has had to deal with all sorts of issues this season. Not only are they entering the contest at 3-7 and as the owners of the statistically worst defense in the league, they also will be without their best pass catcher, best pass rusher and, potentially, starting quarterback.
So, with that said, let’s take a look at our head-to-head comparison between the two teams ahead of their 1 p.m. ET showdown on Sunday.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Bengals pass defense: Speaking purely in terms of the numbers, this might be the most lopsided matchup the Patriots passing offense will face this season. The Bengals, frankly, have been putrid stopping opponents from moving the ball through the air: they are ranked dead-last in the league in EPA allowed per dropback (0.274) and passing touchdowns given up (25), and are 31st in both passing yards (2,573) and net yards per attempt surrendered (7.3). The Drake Maye-led Patriots attack, meanwhile, has been among the most efficient in football and will get one of the best deep threats in the game — wide receiver Kayshon Boutte — back as well. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Bengals pass offense: Joe Burrow is the big variable in this matchup. The Bengals’ starting quarterback has been out since sustaining a turf toe injury in Week 2, but he recently returned to full practice participation and 11-on-11 work. If he gets the start over Joe Flacco, this matchup projects to be a lot closer even considering that Flacco has played decently considering the circumstances. At the end of the day, though, we are still giving New England the edge even if Burrow makes his comeback: outside of opening drives, the Patriots defense has been one of the best in football lately even with an uneven pass rush. That is in large part because of the coverage personnel locking down opposing passing games, something that will be easier to do on Sunday with Bengals WR1 Ja’Marr Chase suspended. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Bengals run defense: The Bengals pass defense has been bad this year, and so has been their ability to stop the run. They are ranked 32nd in rushing yards given up (1,609), 31st in EPA per run (0.108) and 30th in yards per run (5.4). On the season, New England has not been a whole lot better — ranking in the bottom third in several categories — but the unit has turned the corner recently: since the start of November, it is ranked 12th in EPA on the ground (0.046). Chances are it is going to add to that number against a defense that is averaging over 10 missed tackles per game. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots run defense vs. Bengals rushing offense: The biggest statistical outlier when looking at the Bengals is their EPA per run: at 0.043, they are ranked second in the NFL. That said, that number has been achieved on the smallest sample size in football: at 191 rushing attempts, Cincinnati is last in the NFL and clearly below the league average through Week 11 (272.2). That should not take away from the success the group led by Chase Brown has had, but it is not a given that the Bengals will have success against a Patriots run defense that will be without Milton Williams. That group has yet to show it can replace the stalwart defensive tackle, but in that particular area there is reason for optimism given the personnel available. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
Special teams might end up as the most competitive area on Sunday. The Patriots and Bengals, after all, are relatively evenly matched in the game’s third phase. New England is better in the punting game, both as far as returns and coverage is concerned, while Cincinnati might have an edge on kickoff runbacks thanks to returner Charlie Jones. The kickers are also on the same general level, with Andy Borregales and Evan McPherson hitting on 92% and 92.7% of their kicks so far this year. Ultimately, though, we are giving the edge to the visitors because they have been better finishing tackles on the two coverage teams: New England is missing just under 1.5 special teams tackles per game compared to Cincinnati’s 2.2. One tackle might end up making the difference. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
Whereas Mike Vrabel is looking like a realistic NFL Coach of the Year candidate given the Patriots’ remarkable turnaround this season, his counterpart — Zac Taylor — seems to be on the ropes. Not only have the Bengals struggled to play consistent football on both offense and defense this year, there has been relatively little development in some big areas such as tackling. That does not mean Taylor won’t get his team in a position to challenge the Patriots on Sunday, but the coaching matchup still seems to favor New England in one aspect in particular: offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels versus defensive coordinator Al Golden is a clear mismatch based on everything we’ve seen so far this season. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
With Joe Burrow nearing a return, the betting line has moved favorably for Cincinnati over the course of the week. That being said, they are still listed as 5.5-point home underdogs after opening the week at 7.5, and it is not hard to see why: even with Burrow in the lineup, they are overall the worse team of the two and will be without some key pieces.
The Patriots, on the other hand, had only one player limited during Thursday’s practice and are not just coming off eight straight wins but a mini bye. They should end up victoriously, even if the battle as a whole should be more competitive with the Bengals’ franchise QB being back.
