Sitting in sole possession of last place in the Mountain West, Nevada will host one of its longtime rivals for possibly the last time in a bit. Boise State will be heading to a new conference next year, and they’ll be plenty of festivities before this game.
Boise State (5-2, 3-0) @ Nevada (1-6, 0-3)
Location: Mackay Stadium
Date/Time: Friday, Oct. 14 at 7:00 p.m. PST.
Broadcast: CBSSN
Betting line: Boise State is favored by 21.5 points. The over/under is set at 50.5.
History: Boise State is 32-14 all-time
against Nevada, winning the last two meetings. The last matchup was a Boise State win, 28-21, on Nov. 9, 2024.
Keys to the game
- Get the run game more involved
When Nevada made the change to Carter Jones at QB, the pass game noticeably improved. But as that went up, down came the running game.
In Nevada’s last three games, the rush attack has posted totals of 129, 60 and 55. A majority of its rush ability came from Chubba Purdy, who has the second-most rush yards this year with 293. Now that he’s not as involved, Nevada’s offense continues to be imbalanced.
Boise State’s defense is special, especially its pass rush, but its run defense hasn’t been anything too sparkly. If Nevada can get the likes of Caleb Ramseur and Herschel Turner going more consistently, the Pack may be able to put some added pressure in this one.
- Give the defense breaks when you can
Nevada’s defense has been the standout point this season. Many of Nevada’s six losses were tight-knit games that the Pack’s defense held onto as long as they could. Going up against an elite offense in Boise State means there won’t be much room for error, but if the defense can manage a few stops and turnovers, you have to take advantage of it.
Boise State has scored 56 and 41 points in its last two games and is averaging 36.6 points per game. The Broncos average 205.6 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry, so it’ll be hard to limit that area. The best chance of slowing this offense down is forcing Broncos QB Maddux Madsen to beat you with his arm.
In the close 28-21 loss to Boise State last year, Madsen struggled against Nevada, going 9/20 for 119 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Assuming Nevada’s defense can make him uncomfortable, Nevada’s offense will need to return the favor and extend some drives to give the defense a break.
- 2010, anyone?
Most of Nevada’s 2010 team will be in attendance for this game to celebrate its 2025 Hall of Fame class. That historic 2010 season included the infamous comeback game against Boise State, where Nevada was a 14-point underdog.
In that game, Nevada was down 24-7 at halftime and continued to trail by double-digits in the second half. A late rally pushed the game into overtime, where Nevada took the game 34-31.
Here in 2025, Nevada doesn’t have its Colin Kaepernick or an elite record, but Nevada’s history is strong, and the Pack have strived to be marked as the underdog. As 21.5 point underdogs in this one, the biggest thing Nevada needs is to believe (shoutout Ted Lasso.)
Prediction
As easy as it is to believe, I’m not sure I have that much confidence in Nevada in this one. I’m going with a 38-13 win for Boise State.
