Greetings, Knickerbocker fans. As the 81st NBA season draws near, the Posting and Toasting crew has assembled to answer questions and offer predictions as the defending champions pursue a repeat under sophomore skipper Mike Brown.
Commence the speculation!
1) Where will the Knicks finish in offensive and defensive rating, and what will drive the biggest change?
Antonio Losada: Let’s do something not-so-fun and revisit last year’s takes, carrying 53 years (well, not so many in my personal case) of suffering
with them. I had the Knicks finishing with both a top-six offense and defense last season, and I nearly got it right, as they posted the third-best ORtg and seventh-best DRtg. Nothing other than losing Mitchell Robinson has changed, I don’t expect anything to deviate a lot from what we saw last postseason, and everybody — including Mike Brown — has been together for a full season, so I’ll ramp up my prediction for a top-three finish in both cats this campaign.
Michael Zeno: As Antonio said, the Knicks gave us a good baseline with third and seventh in offensive and defensive rating, respectively, so my answers will be pretty similar. I’m not sure if they can achieve Celtics-esque offensive harmony from behind the arc, but this offense will reach a new level with their new playmaking hub in the middle. On defense, I wonder if Andre Drummond will be a steep drop-off from Mitchell Robinson, but also if the strides Karl-Anthony Towns made in the postseason will carry over. Whaddya know, the man angling for a max extension is the X-factor for both. I’ll say third and ninth.
Moritz Wollert: If they really wanted to I could see them finishing top three in both categories. The people in Atlanta, Philly, Cleveland and down there in Texas surely remember how dominant this Knicks group can be, even if they lost Mitchell Robinson over the summer. For a veteran championship team like our Bockers (damn, it feels good to type that) though of course there are many things a lot more important than statistical milestones. So I could see them pacing themselves, trying out some things over the course of the year and finish comfortably 5th on O and 8th on the defensive end.
Kento Kato: The Knicks have the roster and ability to be a top three team on both ends of the floor, especially if they play the way they did in the postseason. While they did lose Mitchell Robinson, a full regular season of Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges playing they way did en route to a championship could see them absolutely dominate the regular season. That being said, I do think some early season regression and complacency is natural, even with this group of motivated and focused core. That, along with an improved conference and the fact that teams can’t possible continue putting their centers on Towns like they did at the beginning of last season makes me believe that they’ll be a top five offensive team and top ten defensive team, but not quite top five in both.
Russell Richardson: I hate this question and I wrote it. Prediction: Top 15 defense, top 10 offense . . . like ninth. The loss of Mitch’s gravity drops them defensively (see my A to Q6 below), and I expect Brown to limit the mileage on his best offensive players: they’ve already played a lot of basketball this year and this is an older team. Unless the plan is to burn through them this season and start rebuilding soon after, Mike’s gonna try to keep them fresh. Which would affect the win total (also see below).
2) Which Knick will take the biggest step forward, and who could have trouble matching last season?
Losada: The fact that everybody is familiar with the system, how Brown guides his pupils, and what everyone can and can’t do, I think we’re facing a very real possibility of watching these Knicks level up once again. If I have to pick someone taking a step forward, that’d be Mikal being confident from game one through 82 and beyond. Someone we might start to worry about sooner rather than later is Josh Hart, if only because of what he’s great at — never-tiring chaos causing — and his wheels getting so much run. Talking strictly about performance, I don’t see any clear candidate to regress, roles factored in.
Zeno: I also think a big season is coming for Mikal Bridges. If anyone can benefit from the weight being lifted off his shoulders after a title, it’s Mr. F— Them Picks. OG Anunoby is getting the early hype for All-Star consideration, but why can’t Mikal do it if he can finally blend his scoring and defense? As for regression, it’s either Jose Alvarado or Landry Shamet, just because the two were so incredible last year. I’ll lean Shamet, not because I don’t think he’s a great bench piece for this team, but because he set some lofty expectations in the playoffs.
Wollert: I agree with Michael that Shamet could have trouble matching last season since it’s hard to be a bench superstar for multiple years. My ultimate vote goes to KAT though with his contract situation lurking in the background and the reality that it is hard to keep your focus for an entire season. He gave the Knicks so much mentally in the playoffs and I have a tough time seeing that commitment in January against the Sacramentos of the world. On the other end of the spectrum I really hope Mo Diawara keeps his trajectory going upwards. So many of the other players were so close to their optimum at the end of last year that I could see him being the one guy who can really give more with a more defined role.
Kato: I’m tempted to go with Diawara just because he has arguably the most room to grow of any of the rotation players. And even though I think he’ll be fine, he has had a relatively inconsistent series of exhibition games between Summer League and preseason. I also think Bridges is a fun answer given the confidence boost and the lack of worry he may be playing with. As is Towns, who is coming off of a triumphant postseason run that proved just how impactful he could be on both sides of the ball. That being said, I think Bridges is still going to more or less be the same player in the regular season. And I do think it will be difficult for Towns to be the postseason version of himself for the entirety of the regular season. My vote goes to Anunoby, who we’ve seen be pretty aggressive in preseason. If he can up his free throw rate like he started off preseason doing, and continues to get on-ball initiation reps, I can see him making his first All-Star appearance.
Richardson: OG will have a few more thirty point games this season, so maybe that qualifies for a leap? And Cap will have a hard time. His skills and discipline remain unchanged, but living up to expectations after a championship is a major weight. No NBA player has a bigger target on his back. And I pray every night for his ankles.
3) Which reserve will matter most to the title defense? Who needs a bigger role before the playoffs?
Losada: So much has been made of the third-string center, but right now I’d care the same about having James Wiseman or placing a broomstick on the bench. It’s a clear-cut name here for me, and that’s Deuce McBride. Yes, the Knicks won it all with a poor postseason run from McBride, but I don’t think that can repeat itself, and hey, the better he plays, the better package the Knicks will do in return for him at the deadline, also boosting their title-defense chances! No bigger roles for nobody, status quo on the rotation.
Zeno: Yep, Deuce. I do not care how rough he looked for much of the playoff run. He barely got his conditioning back from a multi-month core injury before ramping up to high-stakes playoff games. He’s a guy who needs to prove he’s worth the $15 million a year that a player of his archetype deserves, and while I’m very skeptical he will be a Knick beyond this year, he is the player who can most expand this team’s ceiling.
Wollert: It clearly is Jordan Clarkson with his voodoo like abilities that healed OG and kept almost the entire team healthy throughout the postseason. No matching that for any opponent. On a serious note I really hope Andre Drummond can give the Knicks a little something of what Mitch gave them off the bench for years. Not only the rebounding but a physical, gigantic presence with elbows, bumps and bruises for the opponent. If he can’t provide it there probably isn’t anyone else who can.
Kato: The backup center position is noteworthy. But one, Robinson wasn’t necessarily a force to be reckoned with in the Finals, and two, the backup center in the postseason may not even be on the roster right now. I still agree with the others and lean McBride. I know the Knicks won it all despite a poor offensive showing from him last Finals, but he’s still so valuable and has the ability to raise the ceiling of the guys he shares the floor with and ultimately, the team, unlike any other reserve.
Richardson: Landry Shamet will get votes for sixth man of the year. But I believe the most important bench player is not yet on the team. (Dun dun dunnnnnhhh)
4) Which Eastern Conference opponent poses the biggest threat, and what about that matchup worries you?
Losada: I will never not fear the Celtics the same I will never trust the Sixers to keep the puzzle together for more than short stretches of games, let alone a playoff series. Perhaps watching Toronto in the last preseason game and how tight things were, the Raps have something big in store for these Knicks when the postseason comes. KAT ate the Raptors alive on Thursday, but not the only one that matters in Scottie Barnes, so we’ll see how that goes when the bright lights are on.
Zeno: If the Sixers somehow find the magic elixir that keeps LeBron youthful and gives Embiid some fresh knee cartilage, it’s them, but they’ll be starting Adem Bona by playoff time most likely. If Kawhi stays healthy (not as much of a guarantee as some seem to believe), the Raptors could move the needle. Maybe if the Celtics’ shooting gets hot in the playoffs, or Miami gets enough from Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. You know what? It’s the Pacers. It’s a WWE-esque storyline that’s setting up here if these two meet for a third time in four years. The only team in the last three years to beat the Knicks in a playoff series will have that confidence every time they play them this season.
Wollert: Pacers are a good pick, even if they look vastly different this time around. Philly only worries me because the world is unfair and could have us losing to that group of not exactly likable fellas. From a pure matchup standpoint there isn’t one team in the East that the Knicks can’t handle, they all have major weaknesses and question marks. New York has them aswell obviously but certainly with this group have provided a lot more answers than anybody else.
Kato: The scary and the fun part about the eastern conference this season is that you can argue that eight, maybe nine, teams will consider anything short of a conference finals appearance a failure. But for, the only one I that I think has not just the talent, but the matchup, to beat the Knicks four our of seven times is the Pacers. Maybe it’s just because of recency bias that I feel that way. But I can’t fully trust the 76ers’ ability to stay healthy, defend, or get collective buy in to sacrifice. The Raptors are scary defensively, but do they have enough offensively? The Heat are likely a year or a couple pieces away. The Pistons are still flawed for postseason basketball in my eyes. And the Cavaliers, well, they just aren’t beating the Knicks in a playoff series anytime soon for a myriad of reasons.
Richardson: Everybody’s sleeping on Charlotte, huh? Make mine teal!
5) What is your boldest Knicks prediction for 2026–27? Give us something we can hold against you in April.
Losada: Knowing Leon Rose and writing this against the backdrop of the Dolan-second apron summer, I’m going to go bold and say Rose completes a trade we don’t ever see coming. And no, I’m not talking about the likes of Dadiet, Diawara, or Kolek. Not talking about landing a first-round pick. I’m talking about a foundation-shaking deal, involving one or multiple of KAT, OG, Hart, and Bridges.
Zeno: Josh Hart finishes the season coming off the bench. This starting lineup has been together for two years under two different coaches, has played thousands and thousands of minutes together, and has found a groove in the playoffs. That said, there are limitations, and an injury to Hart (or some complications with his gnarly finger) could push him to the bench for Shamet or McBride.
Wollert: James Wiseman will become an important rotation piece and is a major contributor come playoff time. Opponents will fear him on the offensive glass and have no answers for him as a lob threat – atleast not with their second units. Yes, that preseason kool-aid is still tasting like magic. If it ever wears off in the next few days I’d join Antonio in the “KAT might get traded” camp. Not because they don’t value him but because they don’t want to lose him for nothing down the road. His value is at an all time high too.
Kato: I know the Knicks recently announced that they wouldn’t be negotiating extensions until later in the season. The uneasiness of hearing that have lead many fans to take that as the team saying they won’t be negotiating at all this season. My prediction is that a Towns negotiation happens at some point this season. As I’ve done in the past in pregame and preseason predictions, this is another instance of me trying to speak something into existence. But I do think that the two sides will budge a bit and realize that they not like like each other, but are good for each other, and get some sort of deal done.
Richardson: The NBA goes on strike, not to fight for more equitable treatment of mid-tier employees, but to screw the Knicks out of their repeat bid.
6) What will the Knicks’ final record and playoff seed be, and how will their season end? Would anything short of a repeat feel disappointing?
Losada: I stopped taking John Hollinger seriously or reading his content a few years ago, but I tend to agree with his prediction for the Eastern Conference’s regular season. I see as many as six teams ending within two or three games’ distance, and perhaps none of them winning even 50 games. The Cavaliers or the Pistons will win the 82-game circuit because that’s all they win, if anything, and the Knicks will likely take it easy and finish in the 4-6 seed. Give me a 49-33 record for New York and a first-round matchup against the Raptors or the Celtics. Regarding the back-to-back title: I’m set for life with last year’s chip. That’s it for me.
Zeno: No idea. The East is stacked; this team is built for the playoffs, and they don’t seem to be as gung-ho in the regular season. I have a hard time believing this team will regress that much from their pre-KAT hub days as a 53-win team, but what if someone gets hurt? All bets are off. I’ll stake my claim on 51-31, a No. 3 seed, and a trip to the NBA Finals, where the grown-up Spurs get revenge. I will not be mad if this team doesn’t repeat, especially when I spent much of my life thinking they’d never win one, but if they lose to someone like Indiana or Philly or even Boston? I’ll be annoyed.
Wollert: Top seed in the East, baby, 55 wins and not looking in the rearview mirror. I’ve never been as pleased and happy going into a season, just cool, calm and collected. In due time that will wear off, plenty of things will go wrong and the all out pessimist in me will kick the little angel off my shoulder. But before it’s pitchfork time I believe that these Knicks can do no wrong, will get back to the Finals and beat the Spurs for the repeat. If they fall short I definitely will be dissapointed but will surely get over it quicker than in the past. I should, right? Maybe? No, it will still be awful.
Kato: The east is back to being a beast. The team is one year older and coming off of a championship. And they lost Robinson. I do think a lot of that will be offset with the fact that they unlocked a level of basketball perfection that the team had never previously sniffed. But it’s hard to keep that up for all 82 games, especially when finishing first in the regular season does not mean much for them. They’ve proven they relish playing on the road, and I can see them coming out the gates a bit slow, and taking the regular season slightly lightly. They’ll still be great, but I expect them to win 51 games and finish as a third or fourth seed after the 76ers, Celtics, and maybe the Pistons.
Richardson: Under 50 wins, sixth seed. A winner hasn’t repeated in seven or eight years, and this team won’t break the streak. NY was blessed with health last season. Making Towns an offensive hub in the playoffs added a complexity that opposing teams had no time to prepare for. Mitch was more important in five minute stints than we fully understand. And by confronting the team about their petty dislikes, Brown got everyone pulling in the same direction for the playoffs. Staying healthy is hard, especially with a so-so second unit forcing the starters to play longer; rival teams have added players to counteract NY’s offense; Drummond is good, but will not alter opposing strategies the same way Mitch does; and winning has a way of distorting egos. I could see an ECF. I can’t see the Finals again. And based on my optical prescription, it’s clear I can barely see at all.
Knicks in five.
