It never rains, but it pours. On the morning of June 18th, the Yankees were sitting pretty at 45-27, holding a 3.5 game lead over the Rays and expected by most to coast to the AL East division title. In the two and a half weeks since, they’ve struggled mightily while the pesky Rays have gone on a heater, flipping the division to take a four-game lead of their own. The good news — the Yankees are headed down to St. Petersburg, Florida tonight for a four-game set with the class of the AL East, giving
them a chance to put a dent in that deficit. The bad news — the Yankees are entering this series looking vulnerable as the Rays have an opportunity of their own to put even more distance between themselves and their division rivals. Let’s take a look at the likely starting pitching matchups for this midweek set.
Monday: Cam Schlittler vs. Griffin Jax (6:40 pm ET)
Cam Schlittler was selected to his first All-Star game yesterday in his first full season. He’s pitched well enough, leading the league in ERA (2.08) and ERA+ (203), that he’s got a very real chance to start the Midsummer Classic. He is coming off consecutive losses, though, including a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Tigers in which he allowed four homers and looked lost for the first time in his young career.
He’s set to face Griffin Jax. Jax is the rare struggling reliever converted mid-season to a starting role. And, like most buttons the Rays have pushed this year, it’s worked. Since joining the rotation on April 26th, the 31-year-old has pitched to a 2.65 ERA (though his 4.09 FIP suggests some regression may be in store). Jax has massively upped his changeup usage since transitioning to a starter, and to great effect; opponents hit just .152 against the pitch in June.
Tuesday: Will Warren vs. TBD (6:40 pm ET)
After securing his fourth victory on May 1st, Will Warren and his 2.39 ERA looked like they had finally arrived. Since then, he’s looked much more like the back-end starter we saw for most of last year, posting a 4.70 ERA across 10 starts. His last time out, Warren held the Tigers to two runs in 5.1 innings while punching out seven.
The Rays have yet to announce a starter for Tuesday night, bumping Shane McClanahan back a day to give him extra rest as he continues to work back from injury. The Rays have been content to mix in openers in these situations all year, with five different relievers drawing starts (not counting Jax and swingman Steven Matz).
Wednesday: Gerrit Cole vs. Shane McClanahan (6:40 pm ET)
After holding opponents off the board in his first two starts of the year, Gerrit Cole has struggled. The Yankees ace allowed 17 runs in five June starts, showing signs of rust after a year-plus layoff. Cole’s last outing was an encouraging one, with the 35-year-old permitting two runs in five innings while earning the Yankees’ sole win in their last nine games.
He’ll square off against Shane McClanahan. After missing the past two years to injuries himself, the two-time All-Star hasn’t skipped a beat upon his return. McClanahan was his typical dominant self his last time out, holding the Royals to no runs and three baserunners in six innings of work to drop his season ERA to 3.05.
Thursday: TBD vs. Drew Rasmussen (1:10 pm ET)
In the spot vacated by an injured Carlos Rodón the last time through the rotation, the Yankees turned to Brendan Beck. In a word? Yeesh. Beck looked terribly overmatched and, with more lead time and Beck not yet eligible to return after being sent down, it’s likely they’ll turn instead to Elmer Rodríguez to start Thursday. Rodríguez has been an unspectacular but serviceable spot starter this year, allowing no more than three runs while pitching between 4 and 4.2 innings in each of his four outings.
The Rays will hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen. After finishing ninth in AL Cy Young voting last year, Rasmussen has continued to pitch like an ace. He’s 7-4 with a 2.78 ERA while leading the league with a .897 WHIP. His last time out, Rasmussen allowed a season-high five runs in five innings against the Astros.
