After a resounding 9-3 victory to avoid a sweep in the ALDS, the Guards have forced a game 4 and have their most consistent starting pitcher lined up to pitch on regular rest. Today we’re going to look at the keys to the game for the Guards to force a winner take all game 5 Saturday in Cleveland.
MVP Messick and the Closing Crew
The first key is Parker Messick needs to be his best self. His fastball in 2026 was one of the best pitches in all of MLB going by run value, and he was the Guardians’ most
valuable player by fWAR in 2026. He threw 4.2 innings in game 1 and really only threw 1 bad pitch. Unfortunately it ended up being sent 440 ft by Murakami. If you can get a similar outing from Messick of 5 innings and 1-2 runs, that’s going to put you in a good position with the bullpen to finish out the game.
Cade Smith only needed 19 pitches to get 6 outs in game 3. He should be available again tomorrow. Erik Sabrowski did not pitch in game 3 so he also should be well rested for game 4. We know Daniel Espino can pitch on back to back days, and given he didn’t pitch game 2, he should be available as well. Tanner Bibee can be a useful new(ish) look for an inning or so against the bottom part of the White Sox lineup. Tim Herrin has shown so far that he can be a weapon too, along with Shawn Armstrong (who only threw 5 pitches in game 3). I wouldn’t be afraid to go to any of them to help bridge the way to Smith.
If Parker can at least get through 5, you only need those pitchers to get you 12 outs combined, and any extra outs beyond that from Parker just ease the burden.
Give Gaddis a Breather
I wouldn’t pitch Hunter Gaddis in a high leverage spot again in game 4. He’s had too many blow ups recently, and the performance in game 3 almost ended the season. He needs a break.
I also would consider starting someone other than Angel Martínez. His ABs have been quite poor, and his inability to take a walk looks especially exploitable in postseason games. Both Daniel Schneemann and Petey Halpin give you better defensive options, but you could also move Adell back into the outfield, have Travis Bazzana as DH, and put Angel Genao at second base.
I’m less tied to the benching Martínez option because he has been very good as a hail mary chance at a homer or other key hit near the bottom of the lineup, but right now I’d seriously consider giving someone else a look. Putting another LHH in the lineup given how many LHP the White Sox like to use is risky, but I think at this point it’s a risk worth considering.
Keep the Defense Locked In
So far in this series, the Guardians have played a very clean game defensively every time they’ve taken the field. Travis Bazzana has looked as competent as ever as a second baseman, and José has made some dynamite plays out there so far as well.
One thing we know about postseason baseball is every extra out and every extra base runner is just one more chance to lose hold of a game. Continuing to minimize those opportunities for the other team reduces the burden on the offense as well.
Patient Opposite Field Approach
The offense broke out today by staying patient and not being afraid to take a base hit the opposite way. In game 3, the Guardians drew 10 walks and had RBI opposite field hits by Steven Kwan, Jo Adell, José Ramírez, Angel Genao, and Bryaan Rocchio (who had 2 different opposite field hits in game 3). Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey also had opposite field singles, and even Nathaniel Lowe hit two well struck line outs to Miguel Vargas at 3rd.
Staying patient, waiting for their pitches, and not being afraid to just take that single up the middle or the opposite way are the things this offense does when they’re at their absolute best, and it’s an approach that will annoy and wear down opposing pitchers. An already taxed Chicago bullpen can’t afford to be overworked too much more.
That being said, it also wouldn’t hurt to get a ball or two out into the cheap seats.
These are your strengths if you’re the Guardians. Parker Messick has been your guy all season long. It’s time to lean on him and trust him to be Parker Messick. Play solid fundamental defense, and use those 4-5 hitters playing every day with great eyes at the plate to make their pitchers throw as many pitches as possible. If you can do all these things, you have as good of a chance as possible to play at least one more game at home this season.
