This offseason I have given my thoughts on what reasonable over/unders should be for pretty much every player on the Pittsburgh Penguins roster
.I have told you the players I am intrigued by and the storylines to watch.
Now I just want to make a few of my own personal predictions. Some based on logic, reason and data. Others just based on vibes.
I will revisit these after the regular season and see how I did.
1. Nicholas Robertson is a breakout player and scores (at least) 25 goals
I have been high on Robertson from the moment he was acquired, and can see the thought process
behind why they wanted him.
He is in the age range the Penguins are looking for, he brings speed to the lineup, he has produced extremely well given his minutes and role in the early parts of his career, and he is likely to get a chance on the top line next to Sidney Crosby and Rickard Rakell. It is a good setting for him.
He is one of the wild-card players on this year’s team that can make-or-break the season, and I see a breakout happening offensively for him.
His career-high at this point is only 16 goals, but he’s played more than 70 games just one time in his career and never averages more than 12 minutes of ice-time per game, and it almost always comes exclusively in 5-on-5 situations. But he still produces for those minutes. He can still put the puck in the net.
Over the previous three seasons there have been 414 forwards that have logged at least 1,000 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey.
Robertson’s 1.09 goals per 60 minutes rank 28th out of that group.
(For the record, Egor Chinakhov is sixth on that list).
The list of players ahead of him is a who’s who collection of first-line players and producers.
He has also done it by producing a respectable shot volume, averaging 8.29 shots on goal per 60 minutes (52nd out of that group. Chinakhov, by the way, is 54th out of that group). It’s not really a shooting percentage bender that’s helped him.
Am I banking on rate stats turning into box score stats? Yes I am. But I see it happening. It seems like a good fit, and I envision him becoming some sort of long-term piece here.
Along these same lines, I see a similar year from Chinakhov, but with maybe a slightly higher upside.
So much so that ….
2. Egor Chinakhov leads the team in goals
I’m not sure what the number will be. It might be a combination of him building on the breakout half-season from a year ago and some other players missing time or just slowing down due to age. But the Penguins have had a different leading goal-scorer in each of the past four years, going from Jake Guentzel, to Sidney Crosby, to Rickard Rakell, to Anthony Mantha.
Why not another name at the top of the list?
We already received a taste of what he can do, and he was one of the biggest surprises for the Penguins during the 2025-26 season, and I see it being a real improvement for him. He needed a fresh start and a new environment. He got it, and he is going to blossom in it.
3. Erik Karlsson gets traded
I don’t imagine that it will be popular in the locker room, because the Penguins are probably still going to be in the playoff race and Karlsson is probably going to be a big part of that.
But I also don’t really see another realistic option here.
The Penguins opted not to trade Anthony Mantha at the deadline a year ago and then lost him in free agency. But what did they really lose with that process? As good of a season as Mantha was having, he’s a hot-and-cold, middle-six winger on the other side of 30 with an injury history. That is simply not a very valuable asset, even with the goal-scoring. What does he bring back if they trade him? A second-round pick? Maybe? The return they were going to get in a trade probably didn’t outweigh the production they were going to get from Mantha the rest of that season.
Karlsson, as a top-pairing defenseman (even one in his mid-late 30s), is likely to have significantly more value and it might be too much for the Penguins to pass up. It’s simply not realistic for them to re-sign a soon-to-be 37-year-old defenseman given where they are, even if they still see themselves as a playoff team.
That doesn’t mean the Penguins are going to be full-on sellers at the deadline. I could absolutely see a potential Karlsson deal being accompanied by another, more significant move that brings in a younger, relatively high upside NHL defenseman. But I do see Karlsson moving, assuming he does not block it.
4. Sergei Murashov has some growing pains, but shows he is the guy
There is no bigger X-factor for this team and the type of season it has than Murashov (and to an extent, Arturs Silovs).
In terms of upside and potential impact, there is not a prospect in the system that can change things for the Penguins, both this season and in future seasons, more than Murashov, just based on the nature of the position he plays.
Good goalies change everything, especially for teams that might find themselves on the bubble.
There is no denying the talent, the athleticism and the ceiling.
But as I’ve said before here, he’s a goalie. There is no more volatile position in the sport in terms of performance than goalies, and no more unpredictable position. Trying to project year-to-year performance for established goalies is hard enough. Trying to project it for young goalies with almost NHL track record is nearly impossible.
No prospect in the system has a higher ceiling. But he’s probably the least likely to reach it just based on the history of the position across the league.
Some growing pains should be expected from Murashov early on, and maybe even as the season goes on. But he’s performed at every level he’s played at in North America and just seems to have the type of confidence (and madness) you want to see from a goalie. When this season concludes we’re going to be looking at him as not only having an outstanding rookie season, but looking at him as the team’s unquestioned starting goalie. And a very good starting goalie.
Am I guessing here? You bet I am. But sometimes you have to do that with goalies.
5. The Penguins find a way to make the playoffs
That would be a difficult proposition if Karlsson gets traded, but they’re going to score enough and get just enough goaltending to sneak in.
Will that win them a round? I’m not sure. Probably not. But the Metropolitan Division is so wide open, and so many teams in the division have so many wild-cards and X-factors, that no order of finish after the top-two teams (Carolina and Washington) is going to surprise me.
