Believe it or not, this is the first time I’ve ever written a series preview, so my apologies in advance if this one isn’t as thorough and lengthy as the other series previews this year. The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cleveland Guardians were each swept over the last three days, with the former being beaten over four by the Colorado Rockies and the latter swept by the Atlanta Braves. That left the D’Backs 5 games under .500 and 6.5 games out from the last NL Wild Card spot, with their chances of
making the post season dwindling further and further with each loss. Meanwhile, the Guardians are three games over .500 and just 3.5 games out from the last AL Wild Card spot.
Guardians Pitching
Pitching has been by far the biggest strength for the Guardians this year, as evidenced by the team’s 108 ERA+ and 3.89 ERA, with the latter ranking 14th among MLB teams this season. Probably the biggest recent storyline (unfortunately) for the Guardians is they’ve lost one of their best relievers in Emmanuel Clase (3.23 ERA, 130 ERA+, 1.1 fWAR) and a promising young starter in Luis Ortiz (4.36 ERA, 96 ERA+, .9 fWAR) to a gambling scandal – and possibly for good, if they both end up with a lifetime ban.
Surprisingly, Clase hasn’t been the best reliever for the Guardians this year, that’s actually been Cade Smith. In 55 innings this year, Smith has a 2.62 ERA, 160 ERA+, and has been worth 1.9 fWAR, the most of any Guardians pitcher this year. The Dbacks will likely miss facing Logan Allen, the Guardians most valuable starting pitcher according to his 1.4 fWAR. Allen has a 3.87 ERA and 108 ERA+ in 123.1 IP and 24 games this year. The D’Backs will also likely miss facing their former teammate, Slade Cecconi, who was traded for Josh Naylor over the offseason. In 16 starts this year, Cecconi has pitched 90 innings with a 4.50 ERA and a 93 ERA+
Guardians Offense
The Guardians offense, on the other hand, has been anything but a strength this season. As a team, the Guardians’ .675 OPS would rank #28th, and their 919 hits ranks dead last. The best ranking in offensive stats is HRs, were they rank 20th overall. The Guardians have only three above average hitters, at least according to wRC+. Unsurprisingly, third baseman Jose Ramirez has been not only the Guardians most valuable hitter, but their most valuable player in 2025, worth 5.0 fWAR. Ramirez is hitting .291/.364/.515 with 25 HRS, 35 stolen bases, and a 137 WRC+ and 140 OPS+.
Their next most valuable batter has been 1B/Dh Kyle Manzardo, who’s hitting .238/.323/.476 with 21 HRs, 121 WRC+, and a 117 OPS+, worth 1.3 fWAR. The only other hitter that been above average is outfielder Steven Kwan, who’s hitting .281/.340/.396 with 10HRs and 13SBs. That works out to a just barely above average 101 wRC+ and 103 OPS+, but thanks to above average defense, has been worth 2.7 fWAR. The rest of Cleveland hitters have been well below average, with their next best hitter being second baseman Daniel Schneemann, who is hitting .228/.313/ .391 with a 93 OPS+. On the bright side, Schneeman has at least been good enough defensively that he’s been worth 1.7fWAR/1.8bWAR.
Game match-ups
The D-backs have not yet formally announced any starters for this series. Based on the way the rotation lines up, it should be Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt. For the purposes of this preview though, we’ll discuss only the confirmed starters.
Game One: Monday, 6:40 PM – Gavin Williams (7-4, 3.38) vs. TBD
The Dbacks are set to face Gavin Williams, the Guardians best starting pitcher this year, who has a 3.38 ERA, 124 ERA+, 2.1fWAR/.9bWAR in 24 starts and 128 innings pitched. Williams is coming off one of his worst starts of 2025, where he went just 3 innings and allowed four runs on five hits (two of which left the ballpark) in 4-13 loss against the Marlins.
Game Two 6:40 PM – Tanner Bibee (9-9, 4.54) vs. TBD
Tanner Bibee has been the Guardians third best starting pitcher in 2025. In 24 starts and 136.2 IP, Bibee has a 4.54 ERA and 92 ERA+. In his last start in a 9-4 win against Miami, Bibee pitched 5.2 innings and allowed four runs, two of which were earned, while striking out five and walking four.
Game Three 12:40PM – TBD vs. TBD
I would’ve originally guessed Joey Cantillo as the probable starter for Wednesday, but that’d be wrong since he was optioned back to the minors on Sunday. I’d guess now that the Guardians will have a bullpen game, but if they don’t, they have a couple options in AAA Columbus in Aaron Davenport and Parker Messic who could potentially be called up. The Guardians are expected to announce a probable starter later today, at the earliest.
Series result poll
Well, I guess someone has to win this series, despite both team’s recent struggles. You do have to wonder if the recent fuss around the D-backs’ clubhouse – media exaggerated or not – has impact the team. who lost three in a row to the woeful Rockies. That effectively snuffed out the last flickering embers of Arizona’s post-season hopes, and I expect the experimental laboratory, working towards 2026 and beyond, to continue. Will that be enough to overcome the Guardians? That is what the poll below is for, and explain yourself in the comments!
