It’s time for the Brewers’ 2026 playoff campaign to begin!
Anyone who wanted to see a second straight year with a testy intra-division NLDS matchup between the Brewers and Cubs had their hopes quickly dashed on Tuesday and Wednesday as the Padres, one of the hottest teams in baseball, utterly demoralized the North Siders with wins of 8-0 and 4-1. Neither game ever felt all that close.
Now, in their first series in the 2026 postseason, Milwaukee has to face off with the only team in baseball with a better
winning percentage than them over the season’s last two months. Since August 1, both the Padres and Brewers won a league-best 35 games, but Milwaukee lost 18 while the Padres lost 17, giving San Diego the best record in the league in that span.
The Brewers also have some unwelcome memories against the Padres this season; in what was otherwise a magnificent regular season, the team’s low point (as well as this website’s comment section’s most anxious moment) came in the wake of a three-game sweep by the Padres in San Diego from August 10-12. Milwaukee held leads in the seventh inning or later in two of those three games, but the bullpen was unable to hold them, and after an 11-inning loss in the last game of that series with the Cubs mounting a serious charge for the division lead, it was a dark moment in an otherwise bright season.
Milwaukee, of course, recovered well — they won three of four against the Dodgers that weekend and played well down the stretch, and by the end of the season the thought that the Cubs were about to catch them felt ludicrous. But the Padres are one of the only teams that can say they had the upper hand over the Brewers this season — though in their other series this year, the Brewers took two out of three in Milwaukee early in the season.
Much of San Diego’s lineup comes in on a high note. Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of the league’s best players over the last two-plus months of the season; after not hitting a home run for the first two months of the season, he hit 25 from May 30 on, and he had a 1.012 OPS over the final 30 days of the season. Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Ty France also had OPS numbers of at least .895 over the last month of the season, even while the first two of those players had generally underwhelming full seasons. France was a bit of a revelation; he hit .295/.363/.502 this season (a 139 OPS+) in 500 plate appearances, the best offensive season of his career, after he’d barely been a replacement-level player from 2023-25.
Much of their newly discovered offensive firepower was on display against the Cubs. Bogaerts went 4-for-8 with a double and a homer. Manny Machado was 3-for-7 with a double and a homer. Merrill went 4-for-7. Tatis homered. Gavin Sheets, who missed almost all of September, hit a massive two-run pinch-hit homer on Wednesday; he’s now homered in two of his last three at-bats going back to the regular season. The full-season numbers suggest that the Padres were a decent but not outstanding offensive team but make no mistake: they’re as hot as anyone in the league right now.
On the other side of the ball, the biggest questions come in the form of the Padres’ starting rotation. Michael King, who was outstanding on Tuesday to the tune of seven one-hit, shutout innings, had a very good season and slots in nicely as their ace. But after that, things are sketchy. Nick Pivetta started Wednesday and held the Cubs to one run, but he was a bit shaky — he allowed three hits and two walks in 3 1/3 innings — and he only managed eight starts during the regular season. Randy Vásquez, who had a 3.90 ERA and 4.24 FIP in 140 2/3 innings, might start a game, but after that things are extremely sketchy. Walker Buehler was second on the team in innings pitched this season, but he wasn’t very effective (4.64 ERA, 4.51 FIP). Casey Mize and Robbie Ray should be filling this role, but both of them have been disastrous since coming over at the trade deadline: Mize, who is on the IL anyway with a sprained ankle, had an 8.72 ERA in five starts, and Ray had a 7.56 ERA in four.
The danger on this pitching staff is in the bullpen. Mason Miller was the game’s best reliever this season. He is one of the only players in the league who can rival Jacob Misiorowski’s fastball velocity, and he finished the season in Statcast’s 100th percentile in xERA, xBA, fastball velo, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage, with a 98th percentile finish in hard-hit percentage. With 129 strikeouts in 70 innings, Miller averaged 16.6 strikeouts per nine innings; that’s the fourth-highest K/9 rate ever for a player who threw at least 50 innings.
It’s not just Miller, though. Adrián Morejón, like Abner Uribe, is one of the best setup men in the league; he had a 2.37 FIP this season and offers a left-handed compliment to Miller. Yuki Matsui’s advanced numbers are sketchy, but he pitched to a 1.83 ERA in 64 innings this season. Young Bradgley Rodriguez is another flamethrower — he averages 98 mph on his fastball — and he was outstanding in 74 innings. David Morgan and Jhony Brito both had ERAs under 2.50 in September, and Jason Adam, who has had a sneaky great career, is back after missing essentially the entire second half of the season. He threw a perfect inning against the Cubs on Wednesday. Wandy Peralta is out there, too, finishing the season with a 3.61 ERA over 77 1/3 innings.
If the Brewers are going to win this series, they’re going to need to get ahead early in games, because if they find themselves needing to comeback against Rodriguez, Morejón, and Miller, they’re in big trouble. Home-field advantage should help, and the Brewers have been great down the stretch themselves. Several of their offensive players seem to be peaking at the right time, and there are no major health concerns that we haven’t known about for a long time. It will be a fascinating series.
Probable Pitchers
Note: the Brewers have announced Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1 and Logan Henderson in Game 2, but beyond that, neither team has announced anything. There will be a lot of conjecture here.
Game 1: Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 p.m.: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 2.17 FIP) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (9-6, 4.63 ERA, 4.51 FIP)
It will be crucial that the Brewers win Game 1. With King and Pivetta unavailable due to the Wild Card series, the Brewers will have a massive starting pitcher advantage in the first game of the series. I’m not at all sure that Buehler will be the starter—he supposedly was going to be if the Cubs had forced a game three in the Wild Card round. Vásquez has been fine as a back-end starter this season, but he’s been about league average, and the Padres left him off of their roster in the Wild Card round and don’t seem to be factoring him into their plans. Ray could get this start if the Padres prefer the lefty matchup, but Ray has been abominable as a Padre and that’s a big leap of faith. Whoever starts, it will be a quick hook, in all likelihood.
Game 2: Sunday, October 4 at 3:00 p.m.: RHP Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA, 3.32 FIP) vs. RHP Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP)
King will almost surely throw in Game 2 after four days rest; his last two starts of the regular season both came on four days so there’s no reason why they’d stop doing that now. As noted above, King is the Padres’ best starter and their best bet to get deep into a game. He’s also the only Padre who has beaten the Brewers in Milwaukee this season; he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed just one run on May 13. He did not pitch in the series in San Diego.
Henderson, of course, is no slouch. The Brewer co-ace did lose in San Diego but he didn’t pitch badly — five hits, one walk, three earned runs and seven strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings on August 10. Two of those three runs came in the seventh inning when Merrill got him for a two-run homer; I would not expect Henderson to still be pitching in the seventh inning of this game no matter how well he’s been pitching before that. Remember, that game in San Diego was near the end of a 17-games-in-17-days stretch.
Game 3: Tuesday, October 6 at 8:30 p.m.: LHP Robert Gasser (5-5, 3.87 ERA, 4.24 FIP) vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA, 2.21 FIP)
Since the All-Star break, Gasser has made 12 starts. The Brewers are 10-2 in those games, and over 63 innings, he’s got a 2.86 ERA and 3.47 FIP. He has earned this start. Gasser doesn’t have major strikeout stuff and he’s a relatively soft tosser, but like Henderson, he’s managed to just avoid hard contact; he’s amongst the better pitchers in baseball in terms of average exit velocity. He throws five different pitches at least 10% of the time, with four of those in a nearly even split (the sweeper, four-seam fastball, sinker, and cutter are all thrown between 18 and 25 percent of the time), which keeps hitters off balance.
Pivetta, as mentioned above, is a good pitcher, but he was hurt for much of the season and he looked a bit shaky on Wednesday. This is another one in which you would expect a quick hook.
Game 4 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 7 at 9:00 p.m.: Bullpen vs. Bullpen
I don’t think we’re going to see anyone on three days rest in this series, so I expect to see dueling bullpens in this one. Maybe we’ll see Aaron Ashby as an opener, which was a common tactic last postseason, but the Cubs and Dodgers both had platoon disadvantages versus lefties, which isn’t really the case with the Padres; aside from Merrill, all their best hitters are right-handed. It feels like this will probably be Dustin May, which I don’t feel great about, but maybe the Brewers can get two or three scoreless innings from him before handing it over to Ashby or Chad Patrick.
Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, October 9 at 3:30 p.m.: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 2.17 FIP) vs. RHP Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP)
The extra day off here would enable the Padres to bump King into a potential Game 5 on regular rest. Misiorowski would still have a major advantage as a starter, but the chance to throw King instead of whoever starts game one here is a definite boost for the Padres. Let’s hope the Brewers end this series in four or less, and we are instead thinking about Miz as the Game 1 starter in the NLCS!
How to watch and listen
Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 p.m: watch on FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Sunday, October 4 at 3:00 p.m: watch on FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Tuesday, October 6 at 8:30 p.m.: watch on FOX or FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Wednesday, October 7 at 9:00 p.m. (if necessary): watch on FOX or FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Friday, October 9 at 3:30 p.m. (if necessary): watch on FOX or FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Prediction
One could easily make the argument that based on the last two months, this is the “real World Series.” These are the two hottest teams in the league, and while the Padres weren’t nearly as good as Milwaukee in the first half, not much separates them at this point in the season. There’s star power on either side, with Tatis, King, and Miller for the Padres and Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, and Misiorowski for the Brewers. There’s even an old enemy in the form of Machado — we’re going to hear some of the loudest booing we’ve ever heard at American Family Field when he steps to the plate on Saturday.
The teams are closely matched. I’d give the Brewers a slight advantage offensively — their lineup is a little bit deeper. The Brewers have a good bullpen, but that is San Diego’s greatest strength, and it could end up being a real factor this postseason. Milwaukee is a better defensive team, certainly, and they should have an advantage on the basepaths, as well. But the big separator here is in the rotation: I don’t trust anyone past King for San Diego, while I’d certainly prefer Henderson and probably Gasser to whoever the Padres will use as their number two.
Milwaukee has a major advantage on paper in game one, and I like Henderson against King at home in Game 2. San Diego will probably get one in San Diego — that place was rocking against the Cubs — but I think Milwaukee will steal one on the road to seal the series. Let’s say Brewers in four.
