In theory, I love the Rule 5 Draft. Or, more accurately, I love the idea of what the Rule 5 Draft was created for. Basically, back in the day, MLB had a problem with some teams signing and stashing guys
that could probably be productive major leaguers in their farm system. This was all before the Rule 4 (amateur) draft and stuff like “international amateur free agency” with bonus pools and the like, and basically the idea was that MLB wanted MLB-caliber players in MLB, not waiting in the wings. (The idea of service time manipulation is amusing in retrospect in this context.) Even though the rules of the Rule 5 Draft have evolved over time, the idea — giving a player you think is overlooked a chance to compete at the highest level — is appealing to me.
With that said, the implementation is pretty onerous: most guys aren’t kept on a roster all year unless they’re already certain to be meaningful contributors, and roster flexibility is even more important to the well-endowed Dodgers than it is to the conviction-less Marlins and Pirates. As a result, the modern iteration of the Rule 5 Draft is kinda weird: teams would certainly still love the chance to pluck a player they feel they can get more out of, but the restriction of carrying the guy on the active roster the whole year is awkward at best and unmanageable at worst.
For a few years now, I’ve had fun putting together a list of names that I feel like make sense as Rule 5 selections. These names generally fit into the same archetypes, because there are only certain player “types” that you can afford to get fringy contribution from, whether you have an eye for retaining the player without restrictions after the year is up or not. My success rate, if you can call it that, tends to be around 30 percent — of ten names I list, three-ish end up actually getting picked in the Rule 5 Draft later that year. 30 percent isn’t very high, and part of the reason for that is because there are so many guys that weren’t protected and fit the “type” that guessing the specific names chosen without publishing an exhaustive list (if such a thing is even possible) is kinda hard.
The 2024 Rule 5 Draft had 15 total selections. (I’m not talking about the minor league phase here, which is a totally different beast.) Five of the 15 made it through the year with their drafted team; of the remaining ten, seven were returned in Spring Training, and the other three didn’t make it through June before being returned.
The five that made it through the year included:
- Shane Smith, the very rare All-Star in his post-Rule 5 Draft year, who went from “even the Brewers gave up on this guy despite pretty good performance at Double-A” to a solid MLB starter thanks to a rare White Sox development success implemented in the span of just a few weeks;
- Liam Hicks, a generic-ish bat-first backup catcher; and
- A trio of guys who missed the whole year: Angel Bastardo, Nate Lavender, and Connor Thomas. Bastardo’s roster restriction remains in effect for when he is able to pitch in the majors, Lavender was returned after the season was done, and the Braves signed Thomas to a minor league deal already.
One rousing success and a role player out of 15 picks… not the most exciting stuff. But who were the other ten guys?
- Swingmen or starters that teams tried to use as shorter-stint relievers: 5
- Relief prospect-ish guys: 2
- Low-power utility infield guys: 2
- Weird stuff with no easy way to describe the player “type”: 1
One category not quite represented here is a speed-and-defense fourth or fifth outfielder, often with a power-over-contact skillset carried by athleticism. In any case, with the above in mind, here’s my attempt at this year’s exercise, grouped by “type” once again.
Convert a not-ready starter to relief, stash ‘em in the bullpen, question mark, profit
Felix Arronde (Royals): Many guys on this list have been in the high minors for a bit, but Arronde’s last level was High-A. From what I can gather, one of his “assets” is that he’s still really projectable and currently succeeding at a lower velocity tier in the low minors, so this is an opportunity to get him going in shorter stints and jog that velocity increase from changing his usage.
Blake Burkhalter (Braves): I mean, the Braves can’t take Burkhalter, but he should still be on the list as a very obvious “let’s try this guy in relief and see what happens” candidate. The Braves clearly don’t think anyone will bother keeping him after his struggles in shorter-stint work in Triple-A last year, but if I had to pick a name off this list to try and get through the season with, it very well could be Burkhalter.
C.J. Culpepper (Twins): A command-over-stuff starter with a deep pitch mix, who showed a huge uptick stuff in 2024 but took a step back in 2025, while never really being healthy. There’s all sorts of angles about shorter-stint benefits here, in theory. (In reality, like most pitchers picked, we’re looking at a return before Spring Training ends even if a team does take him.)
Jagger Haynes (Padres): Hasn’t had much, if any, success as a starter in the minors; everyone is assuming he has a future as a potentially-useful reliever, so no reason to wait at this point.
Yujanyer Herrera (Rockies): Not much of a chance anyone takes him because he missed all of 2025 with injuries, but if he didn’t and his 2025 looked like his 2024 and he was left unprotected, he’d be a clear “guy starting in lower minors with good stuff that you could hide in a bullpen for a year, probably” candidate.
Joel Hurtado (Angels): He’s already basically pitching like a reliever (huge two-pitch stuff, blah command), but as a starter. For some reason, his strikeout rates are terrible despite his on-paper stuff. Maybe it’s a pure relief role that turns things around. Maybe it’s getting away from the Angels.
Gerelmi Maldonado (Giants): Okay, he hasn’t even hit High-A yet, but he’s got premium velocity as a starter, which is why I’m putting him on this list. Does any team actually want an extreme fireballer with no roster flexibility, no command, and no anything except a steady diet of triple-digit fastballs? I am guessing no, but we’re casting a wide but not exhaustive net here.
Michael Morales (Mariners). If a team takes Morales, it’s not because they want a diamond in the rough whose stuff might play up enough to get him into the system and develop further in 2027 and beyond. It’s because they just want a fifth starter for the future that they can stash as a mop-up guy in 2026. No one should need this, but it only takes one team to be weird.
Connor Noland (Cubs): He’s a starter with generic results in Triple-A who lacks fastball oomph but has good secondaries. This is like the most generic convert-to-relief-for-one-year candidate I can think of. Since he doesn’t necessarily have walk issues, you’re looking for pure upside with increased per-pitch effort in a relief role.
Jedixson Paez (Red Sox): I encourage you to read Paez’ blurb by Eric Longenhagen here, because no summary will do it justice. He’s a 21-year-old high command, undersize righty who de-emphasizes his fastball in favor of baffling hitters with absolute nonsense. He’s so counter-cultural to “current baseball” that even though he missed most of 2025 with injury and hasn’t pitched above High-A, things could work out great for whichever team commits to max entertainment for a season in using him as a low-stress swingman or mop-up guy.
R.J. Petit (Tigers): It’d be fun if Petit became the Gregor Clegane of pitching, since his listed weight is 300 lbs. He’s generally fared pretty well as a bulk/multi-inning type guy, and had a nice 2025 in the higher levels of the minors. Taking him is basically just an alternative to grabbing a random out-of-options reliever on the waiver wire.
Marcelo Perez (Mariners): The only thing that sticks out is a good curveball and decent control, but maybe that’s enough for a mop-up role. Still, this is a deep “type” and I’d be more interested in some of the other names.
Alimber Santa (Astros): As fun as it would be to add a guy surnamed Santa in December, he also had a really nice time in Double-A in 2025 before struggling in Triple-A. Santa has a starter’s arsenal with a couple of above-average pitches, and those could maybe play up even more in relief.
Tyler Schlaffer (Cubs): On this list because unlike other guys, he’s had decent success as a starter already (albeit no higher than Double-A), so it would be a proactive swap to relief rather than a “Well you’ve probably maxed out as a Quad-A arm unless we try you in relief and see where that takes us.”
Brock Selvidge (Yankees): A lot of the profiles of the guys in this section are fairly similar so it’s hard not to just type the same thing over and over, but Selvidge is another guy where maybe he’s better with a better fastball, and getting him into relief is a way to get there while retaining him for starter duty in later seasons.
Anthony Solometo (Pirates): There may not be that much to cast aspersions on in terms of the Pirates’ minor league pitching development, but Solometo was a pedigreed amateur that got a high signing bonus, and then went through a developmental regression that he hasn’t really broken out of because he keeps getting injured. On the one hand, he might be too injured and require too much work to be a worthwhile pick, but there’s something possibly tantalizing about taking a guy like and seeing if a new environment fixes a bunch in one fell swoop. Probably not.
My pick for an injured arm that gets picked and stashed this year
Brandon Birdsell (Cubs): There’s nothing that jumps off the page about Birdsell, and he’s gonna miss most, if not all, of 2026 recovering from elbow surgery. But for whatever reason, teams take these sorts of guys here and there, and I figure Birdsell makes sense if you’re hoping a Cubs roster crunch in the fall of 2026 lets you keep him post-rehab. Another guy in the same vein, but probably less interesting, is the Nationals’ Tyler Stuart.
Relief-ish arms
Douglas Orellana (Mets): He’s basically McCullers-ing (mostly throwing breaking pitches) as a reliever already, and it’s pretty fun, and worked really really well until he got to Triple-A and fell apart. And if you’re not having fun, why are you even in the Rule 5 Draft room in the first place?
Peyton Pallette (White Sox): He wasn’t thrilling as a pure-play reliever in Triple-A in the latter portion of 2025, unlike his success at Double-A, but he fits the profile and a team might find him more interesting than Enyel De Los Santos 2.0 (or 3.0 or 7.0 or whatever).
Francis Pena (Padres): Dominated minor league hitters until Triple-A. Kind of a weird profile where the stuff seems better on paper than in practice. Could benefit from a change of scenery to see if stuff clicks elsewhere. The upside on “clicking” is high because the stuff seems so impressive, at least until he plays against high-minors hitters.
Eric Reyzelman (Yankees): If you read about Reyzelman’s story and profile, they’re pretty insane. He’s had one of the most unorthodox paths to pro baseball, which I’m not going to recap here because it’s so long and twisty, but here you go. (I also have a soft spot for Reyzelman because, me being 14 years older than him aside, our bios read really similarly in a lot of ways, except he actually had the drive and perseverance to eventually be good at baseball.) Why is he unprotected? Because he spent the whole year at Triple-A and was terrible. I don’t know if he ever gets taken or even makes it to the majors, but I’m rooting for him wherever he plays.
Tyler Schweitzer (White Sox): Somewhat similar to Burkhalter, except that the White Sox definitively moved him back to relief (he was a reliever in college, like Burkhalter) after his 2025 promotion to Triple-A went poorly. Taking Schweitzer would basically be doubling down on what’s already happened in this regard.
Utility infielders
Cameron Cauley (Rangers): Doesn’t really belong in this category since he’s a bit weird — huge speed and fielding upside, and the potential for massive power… but unrealized as yet. Teams usually have all tools, little performance fourth/fifth outfielders because all you need to do is run fast and run into one here and there to be worth rostering; Cauley seems less like a surehanded utility infielder and more like the baseball equivalent of a Thanatos Gambit. I’m hoping someone takes him and gives him a lot of run because it would be really fascinating to see what he can do at the majors, and sooner rather than later.
Danny de Andrade (Twins): Kind of the composite utility infielder, probably not taken since he hasn’t played above High-A. He fields okay, hits okay, you get the idea. The other guys in this section are all better at something (and have played above High-A), but de Andrade is probably better than them at other stuff, too.
Cooper Kinney (Rays): He doesn’t do anything all that well but he’s versatile-ish defensively and could be okay offensively. Many utility infielder types are slap hitters, but Kinney has at least okay power. His hitting at Double-A was pretty meh (league average line); if not, he may not have gone unprotected. If a team wants a utility infielder that isn’t a guy on the waiver wire or $1 million MLB deal bucket right now, he’s out there.
Noah Miller (Dodgers): Look, from what I can tell, Miller is basically just Rule 5 Nick Allen. He likely can’t hit, he hasn’t hit, and he’s not gonna risk the rare non-outs he makes on the bases, either, even though his bat-to-ball skills are okay. He just has no power at all. But he defends pretty well! Is anyone in the market for league-minimum Nick Allen? Maybe!
Javi Vaz (Royals): A very weird and counter-zeitgeist profile, of a guy who’s fast but doesn’t field well, and is basically like “Walmart Luis Arraez” at the plate. If you like guys who basically always walk more than they strike out, he’s your Rule 5 guy. On the flip side, he’s basically repeated Double-A twice now and done worse each time than his first go-around, so… I mean yeah he’s unprotected for a reason.
Powerful corner bats
Victor Arias (Blue Jays): Another “massive lefty power, not much else to recommend” bat. He made it to Double-A but scuffled there, but you’re drafting him in the Rule 5 for moonshots from the left side and not much else.
Miguel Bleis (Red Sox): Massive raw power, all sorts of injury history, a spray profile that looks like Isaac Paredes. Can also play center, which makes him more interesting than a generic powerful corner bat. Was probably unprotected because he was terrible after promotion to Double-A last year.
Gavin Conticello (Diamondbacks): He’s a lefty hitter with pop that can play at the corners. That’s about it. Some of those guys have gone on to be pretty successful Rule 5 picks. He’s only going to turn 23 midseason next year, and unlike a lot of “powerful corner bat” guys left unprotected, he doesn’t have glaring inability-to-walk/too-many-strikeouts issues.
Blaze Jordan (Cardinals): I had Jordan mentioned before and he wasn’t taken, and then was traded for Steven Matz at last year’s Trade Deadline. Afterwards, he had an absolutely miserable few months in Triple-A for the Cardinals, but he’s generally hit everywhere else. There’s some weird stuff in his profile because he’s not a guy with that much power for all his swing-and-miss, but he also seems to run a lower strikeout rate than his whiff rate suggests. That could be an opportunity for improvement somewhere, though if no one took him previously, not sure why anyone would do so now after his late-season post-trade collapse.
Izaac Pacheco (Tigers): This is all about pedigree and power, as Pacheco was a relatively high draft pick with a relatively big bonus who is stuck at High-A, but demolished it in 2025. He kind of reminds me of Juan Francisco, but Francisco wasn’t really a useful major leaguer either, so…
Kala’i Rosario (Twins): Destroys lefties, can’t hit righties nearly as well, prodigious power, strikes out a ton already and he’s only in Double-A. Surprisingly good defense and throwing arm for the profile. Probably not taken because no one wants to throw a guy like this into the short side of a platoon, but that’s really his use case. Still, kind of a fun idea.
T.J. Rumfield (Yankees): Okay, he’s not really “powerful” but I didn’t have anywhere else to put him. He’s a hit-over-power first base bat, and that’s definitely a weird profile, but there’s not a lot to dream on here, just a guy who can probably hit pretty well at first base. Ryan Noda was a recent Rule 5 pick that gave his team a 2 WAR season at first base, though his profile was more tilted towards power — a team may try to replicate that with Rumfield, though it’s important to remember that Noda crashed and burned after that solid rookie season.
Fourth/fifth outfielders
Allan Castro (Red Sox): He’s fast, can play center, has good raw power, and didn’t struggle in Double-A last year. In fact, he’s rarely struggled in the minors. Scouting reports suggest he won’t be able to keep up with better pitching at higher levels and in the majors, but we’re talking a Rule 5 selection to hang out on the bench and pinch-run here and there.
Gavin Cross (Royals): Speed, power, and pedigree — but not much success. Cross has kind of stalled out at Double-A and he probably lacks the hit tool/plate discipline to succeed in the majors, but he hits a fair bit of homers and gets a fair bit of steals, and was the ninth overall pick once upon a time… He tried to be more aggressive at the plate in 2025 and it backfired on him, so this is very much a “change of scenery” option.
Carlos Jorge (Reds): Converted from an infielder, he’s exceedingly fast and steals a lot of bases, and has a hitting profile that’s a little different from many power-only fourth outfielder types. On the flip side, though, he’s another guy that hasn’t played above High-A.
Samuel Zavala (White Sox): It might feel a little weird to take a 21-year-old that hasn’t played above High-A, but again, you can get a guy that shouldn’t have any issues being a rarely-used bench guy into your system this way. He’s fast, walks a ton (largely because he just stands there at the plate, though it could be worse), and hasn’t really flamed out performance-wise at any level yet.
