Editor’s note: Each day, Hogs Haven compiles a collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch with the Commanders, the NFC East, the NFL and sports in general, with a sprinkling of other stuff. Enjoy!
Commanders links
Articles
Last Man Standig
Nick Cross was raised on Washington football; now he’s expected to help fix it
The Commanders didn’t merely add a productive safety in free agency. They added a 24-year-old Maryland native whose style, mentality and athletic profile aligned almost perfectly with the franchise’s “younger and faster” offseason mandate.
Edge defender
Odafe Oweh, signed to a four-year, $96 million deal, and first-round linebacker Sonny Styles headline that movement. Much of Washington’s investment on defense, now directed by first-time coordinator Daronte Jones, came along the front seven. Cross and rotation cornerback Amik Robertson were the main additions on the back end.
Cross was born in Bowie, Maryland, a short drive away from his new home game-day office, Northwest Stadium. The September 2001 birth meant Cross missed the franchise’s glory days, but the emotional investment ran deep from the jump.
“I used to cry when they’d lose,” he said.
Washington, which snagged Cross on a two-year, $14 million free-agent contract, bet on [the local player]. According to Next Gen Stats, Cross tied for the NFL lead among safeties with 33 run stops resulting in unsuccessful offensive plays last season.
Cross played every game over the past two seasons; [he] did not miss a defensive snap for Indianapolis in 2024, then handled 96 percent of snaps this past season, finishing second on the Colts with 120 tackles. The overall stat line — 2.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss and five passes defended — shows the schematic range he brings to a new defense designed to bring consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks from all angles.
“It still hasn’t hit yet that I’m coming home to play in DC,” Cross said.
Bullock’s Film Room
This article is free to read in its entirety
Did Commanders Rookie Minicamp Confirm 3-4 Defense?
[T]oday, I wanted to look at one clip of the defense which confirms a schematic shift for the Commanders. Most beat reporters posted their angle of this clip, but the one I saw first was from 106.7 The Fan.
What interests me more is the schematics of the clip. They don’t have 11 players on the field, but what we do see is the skeleton of a 3-4 defense. You can see they have two edge rushers in rookie fifth round pick Joshua Josephs and second year rusher T.J. Maguranyanga, who made the team as part of the international pathway program last year. Behind them, Sonny Styles lines up next to Devin Harper, a tryout for the camp. You can also see undrafted free agent safety Malik Spencer just behind Styles prior to the snap.
This clip shows some key principles to the 3-4 defense we’re expecting Jones to run. First, you’ll notice both edge rushers are trying to disguise their intentions pre-snap. They both walk back off the ball, telling you they’re playing outside linebackers in a 3-4 rather than staying on the line of scrimmage as 4-3 defensive ends. Then they suddenly walk up to the line of scrimmage just before the snap. As the ball is snapped, the offense doesn’t know if they’re rushing or dropping into coverage. As it turns out, Maguranyanga rushes off the left side of the line while Josephs drops off into coverage, which I’ll talk more about shortly.
While Maguranyanga rushes, the other four players we can see in this clip all drop into zone coverage. This is another core part of the defense. The Vikings were aggressive blitzers last year but they played a lot of zone behind those blitzes and stayed in zone when they only rushed four. Jones shows that he’s bringing that idea here to Washington too. You can see both inside linebackers play hook-curl zones while Josephs sinks back to play the flat on his side and safety Malik Spencer drops down to play the flat zone on the other side of the field.
This is likely to be a basic Cover-3 defense with four underneath zone defenders relatively evenly spaced. But they got there from a 3-4 look by dropping an edge rusher into the flat and have a safety start deep before buzzing up into the flat on the other side. It already is emphasizing the importance of disguising things in this defense. We’ve long anticipated that new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones would be shifting the Commanders to a 3-4 base defense, given the success he had working under Brian Flores in Minnesota where they ran a 3-4 base defense together, but we didn’t know for certain.
This clip confirms they will be using a 3-4. Now, they could and probably will have 4-3 packages built into their defense as well, but when you’re looking at one of the first rookie minicamp practices and they’re doing basic install and drills, the fact they start with a 3-4 look tells you that it’s a core part of this defense, as is the zone coverage and the disguises.
So what does that look like in an actual game, rather than just a handful of players in a practice. Well, let’s look at a clip from the Vikings defense last year.
Commanders Roundtable
Two Washington Commander Rookies Take In NFLPA Rookie Premiere
This past weekend, the NFLPA hosted its annual Rookie Premiere in Los Angeles.
Now in its 32nd year, this event is the premier showcase for the most marketable college athletes who have just gone pro. For three days, 42 of the most highly anticipated additions to the NFL class transitioned from college standouts to marketable pros who will hopefully soon be household names.
Across the weekend, players are put through a crash course of content creation and corporate networking. This includes the famous digital body scans for EA Sports Madden NFL, as well as signing thousands of autographs for Topps trading cards that fans will soon be hoping to pull from packs.
These players are also recorded doing media “hits” for major outlets to broaden their brand, including a special live appearance on the St. Brown Podcast, hosted by NFL veterans Amon-Ra St. Brown and Equanimeous St. Brown.
In addition to the fun marketing opportunities, the union puts the rookies through an essential business orientation. This gives them a crash course on licensing rights and brand equity, while providing knowledge on passive income and long-term investments. It’s essentially a springboard to ensure that these players portray the NFL in a positive light, while making sure they are set up for financial success over the long haul.
Commanders.com
5 things to know about Washington’s 2026 schedule
Early division tests.
Over the last few years, the NFL has tried to save the division games until the end of the season to provide more weekly drama and increase the stakes for playoff-contending teams. The Commanders ended the 2025 season with four consecutive matchups against NFC East opponents, and since 2020, nearly 60% of their division games have come in Week 11 or later.
This year’s schedule will take the opposite approach. By the time the Commanders are done with Week 10, they will have played five of their six NFC East matchups.
Unlike previous years, when the league has tried to evenly disperse the Commanders’ games against the Eagles, the two teams will meet both times by the end of Week 8. For the rematch, the Commanders will have almost two weeks to prepare for the two-time defending division champs. It will be under the lights at home for Sunday Night Football and could have serious playoff implications.
The Commanders will also see the Giants early in the season in Week 5, which will be the team’s second home game at Northwest Stadium. They’ll meet again in Week 10 on Thursday Night Football, marking the first primetime matchup between quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Jaxon Dart.
Five nationally televised games.
Daniels is still viewed as a major attraction by national audiences.
The NFL tried to get as many eyes on the Commanders as possible following Daniels’ record-setting Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, giving them eight nationally televised games in 2025 and scheduling many of their other matchups in the late afternoon window.
The Commanders will have at least five nationally televised games this season, including four in the primetime window.
Each of the primetime games will put the Commanders against teams with high expectations in 2026. The San Francisco 49ers, who they will face on the road during Monday Night Football in Week 6, advanced to the Divisional Round of the playoffs despite the team experiencing multiple injuries. The Eagles have lost several key pieces on defense but are still viewed as the best team in the division. The Giants are hoping for a dramatic improvement in John Harbaugh’s first season as their head coach.
The Commanders’ schedule also features a Monday Night Football rematch with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. During the first matchup in 2024, Daniels completed 21 of his 23 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns, including a game-sealing 27-yard score to Terry McLaurin.
The Athletic (paywall)
Must-watch game for every NFL team during the 2026 regular season
Washington Commanders: vs. Bengals, Week 11
Jayden Daniels’ career breakout game was a “Monday Night Football” win over the Bengals two years ago, when he completed 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and accounted for three total touchdowns — one of which was a go-ahead 27-yard beauty to Terry McLaurin in the final three minutes. This game — another Monday nighter, and the fourth of Washington’s four scheduled primetime games — may not carry the same weight, depending on the records of both teams going in, but the intrigue will almost certainly be there.
The Athletic (paywall)
Ranking the 2026 ‘Monday Night Football’ games
14. Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Commanders (Week 11)
There’s excitement here surrounding the LSU products at QB. In 2024, Joe Burrow was the league’s leading passer, while Jayden Daniels was the magnetic Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, Cincinnati and Washington have been done in by unfortunate injuries and organizational disorder. This Week 11 game will be the Bengals’ third straight national TV feature, and the third in four games for Washington. There could be a litany of chaos around each quarterback, but their combined presence does raise this matchup’s ceiling a bit.
Numbers to know: 38-33. That was the score of the last Burrow-Daniels duel, which indeed went down on “Monday Night Football” in 2024. Burrow threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns in a loss; Daniels had 254 yards, three total scores and just two incompletions in a win.
11. Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (Week 6)
Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan reunite from opposing sidelines. They’re seeking their first Super Bowl breakthroughs after experiencing the 28-3 mega-heartbreak together. It’s a relief to see these two teams meeting up early, given their lack of clean health in recent seasons. San Francisco’s crowds are always popping, and this game will look extra sleek if the hosts rock their all-black uniforms.
Number to know: 33.5, San Francisco’s points per game in its last four “Monday Night Football” appearances. The Niners won three of those four games, and the lone loss was an entertaining 40-34 battle with the Lions in 2024.
ESPN
2026 NFL offseason: Best NFL team fits for 14 free agents
Trevon Diggs, CB
Best team fit: Washington Commanders
Washington could see Diggs as reclamation project, helping him get back to being a true playmaker in the secondary. He has had 20 interceptions in six NFL seasons, including a league high of 11 in 2021.
Under new coordinator Daronte Jones, Diggs can use his man coverage traits and backfield vision to get a jump on the ball in the Commanders’ pressure-heavy scheme. However, he has plenty of availability concerns after spending at least a portion of the past three seasons on injured reserve.
Podcasts & videos
“I Wanted To Be Here” | Commanders’ 7th-Round Pick Athan Kaliakmanis | Raise Hail With The Rookies
Greg Cosell breaks down the Commanders’ offseason | John Keim Report
NFC East links
Bleeding Green Nation
Opponent writers predict the Eagles’ 2026 record
We tracked down writers who cover the teams of Philly’s 2026 opponents to see their week-by-week picks and how they had the Eagles games playing out.
Week 18 vs. New York Giants
“I have my doubts as to how well the Eagles will hold together without Jeff Stoutland coaching the offensive and with A.J. Brown — eventually — departing. Asking Saquon Barkley to create more yards for himself and shoulder more of the load could lead to injuries by the second week of 2027. It’d be foolish to expect any game in the NFC East to be “easy” and the Giants could be trying to return to prominence just as the NFC East returns to being the NFC BEAST and the best division in football. But I’m going pick the Giants to finally sweep the Eagles. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is for a ticket to the playoffs and perhaps even the NFC East title itself… Or if that “TBD” winds up being a primetime game. Pick – Giants (10-7).“
EAGLES LOSE: 8-9
SOME THOUGHTS
- Guessing you didn’t expect to see the Eagles with a losing record. Of course, it’s not shocking to see these writers (most of which are fans of the teams they cover) take their favorite team to beat the Eagles. With few exceptions (such as the Cards SB Nation site predicting Arizona to win just four games), fans tend to be optimistic at this time of year and lean towards taking the over.
- The plurality of voters in this BGN community poll have the Eagles going 12-5. The majority of Eagles media personality predictions I’ve seen (including mine) have the Birds going 11-6. Opponent writers have the Eagles going 8-9. If we average out these three, we come out to 10.3 wins. That’s effectively the Eagles’ over/under win total at 10.5 games.
Blogging the Boys
10 bold predictions for the Dallas Cowboys in 2026
2. NFC East Champions
We predict the Cowboys finish with a 4-2 record in the NFC East division, splitting games with the Eagles and Commanders and sweeping the Giants. As NFC East Champions, they would be in position for a potentially strong playoff run.
3. Super Bowl Contender
After already predicting the Cowboys finish with a 11-6 regular-season record and winning the NFC East division, predicting them to be a serious Super Bowl contender is only fitting. With one of the league’s best offenses and an expected defensive improvement, this team could be dangerous in the playoffs.
4. Top 15 Defense
A Top 15 defense? That’s quite a jump from being arguably the worst defense in the league a season ago, but that’s exactly what we are predicting. First-time DC Christian Parker’s versatile 3-4 scheme and the players he’s added should upgrade the Cowboys defense by leaps and bounds from last year.
Big Blue View
New York Giants mailbag
Matt Hawthorn asks: I’m excited by the possibilities on defense following this year’s draft and free agency acquisitions. However, my lingering concern is that we all had similar hopes this time last year following the Abdul Carter pick and the subsequent talk of potential NASCAR packages. Sexy Dexy has left. Arvell Reese, DJ Reader and Shelby Harris have been brought in. Should we have higher expectations of our defense for the 2026 season based on current personel?
Ed says: Matt, you should certainly have higher expectations. First, the biggest lingering question entering last season was whether or not Shane Bowen was the right defensive coordinator to maximize the strengths the Giants had last season. We learned that, as we suspected, he was not.
You have a more aggressive, creative defensive coordinator now in Dennard Wilson. You have an accomplished head coach who will be heavily involved in the defense. You don’t have Dexter Lawrence, but you have a deeper defensive line rotation. You have young players in Arvell Reese and Colton Hood to be excited about.
Maybe we overestimated the potential of the defense a year ago, but I still maintain that it under-achieved. The Giants were in the bottom 25 percent in many defensive categories last season, and worst in the league in run defense, giving up 5.3 yards per rushing attempt.
You won’t hear any “top 10 defense” talk from me this time around. I can’t imagine, though, that the 2026 Giants won’t be better on that side of the ball.
Here’s the [DL] scorecard:
- Subtractions: Dexter Lawrence, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, D.J. Davidson, Elijah Chatman
- Additions: D.J. Reader, Shelby Harris, Leki Fotu, Sam Roberts, Zacch Pickens, Bobby Jamison-Travis
- Holdovers: Roy Robertson-Harris, Darius Alexander, Chauncey Golston (I list him here because the Giants list him as a defensive lineman and not an outside linebacker)
There isn’t a star player in that group, but there is the potential to have a deep, capable group where there really isn’t a drop off no matter who is on the field.
As for Thibodeaux, the Giants continue to say they are not trying to trade him. I believe them. If there was a team out there that would offer them a second-round pick, that is a trade I know they would accept. That’s more than they could hope to get as a compensatory selection should Thibodeaux leave in free agency, so they would have to do that.
The defensive line is deeper. No, there is not a single player as talented as Dexter Lawrence. The Giants will have to replace him in the aggregate. They have added D.J. Reader, Shelby Harris, Leki Fotu, Jacch Pickens, Sam Roberts, and Bobby Jamison-Travis to a group that already had Darius Alexander, Roy Robertson-Harris, and Chauncey Golston. As for Reader, from the people I have talked to about him and Nick Falato’s film study, I would say he has probably lost some pass rush juice, but he remains a quality run defender. His one real job with the Giants? Defend the run.
NFL.com
Eli Manning: Father ‘didn’t like the idea’ of forcing a trade from Chargers during 2004 NFL Draft
A new tidbit Manning relayed was that it was his decision, not his father, Archie, meddling.
“My parents really weren’t supportive,” Manning said of his decision to reject the Chargers. “My dad didn’t like the idea. He came to my defense and supported me after everything was going down…. Afterward, he took the brunt of a lot of the criticism. People were saying, ‘You played in New Orleans. All those years you didn’t win. So you are trying to dictate where your son is going.’ He just kind of bit his tongue and said, ‘This is what Eli wants to do. I support him.’ He kind of did some media to save me from taking all the hits.”
Manning also noted that the Cleveland, who held the No. 7 pick, considered trading for his services, but the QB’s agent, Tom Condon, nixed that idea as well.
In the end, it all worked out for Manning, who won a pair of Super Bowl MVPs for the Giants.
The new sliver of news from this is that Archie backed his son and never let on for more than two decades that he disagreed with Eli’s initial decision. That’s fathering.
NFL league links
Articles
ESPN
NFL owners to vote Nashville as Super Bowl LXIV host
Nashville is expected to be named host of Super Bowl LXIV in 2030 by the NFL owners, who will vote for the city on Tuesday during the spring league meeting, sources told the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo.
This would be the first time the Music City would host the Super Bowl with the event showcasing the Titans’ new stadium, which is expected to open in 2027.
Super Bowl LXI is set for SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on Feb. 14, 2027. The event will air on ESPN with a simulcast on ABC and stream on the ESPN App and NFL+ on mobile.
In 2028, the Super Bowl will be played at Atlanta’s Mercedez-Benz Stadium, home of the Falcons.
And in March, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that NFL owners are expected to select Las Vegas as the host city for Super Bowl LXIII following the 2028 season.
The two-day NFL spring league meeting will kick off on May 19 in Orlando, Florida.
The Athletic (paywall)
Brendan Sorsby could be the biggest supplemental draft entry in years — what the NFL thinks of him
Sorsby would greatly benefit from a strong 2026 season, and he was set up to thrive with Texas Tech’s big-money roster. That’s now in jeopardy, as Sorsby has taken an indefinite leave of absence to enter a residential treatment program for a gambling addiction.
He is under investigation by the NCAA for allegedly betting on Indiana football games in 2022 while he was a redshirt freshman for the team. And Sorsby, who spent the past two seasons at Cincinnati, is the subject of an integrity investigation by Ohio gambling officials.
Sorsby has retained renowned lawyer Jeffrey Kessler for a potential eligibility battle if he attempts to play another college season.
“This is a player who is in the conversation for the top two rounds next year in the draft,” an executive said. “He’s one of the guys who (scouts) were excited to evaluate. They were excited (about) this year and saw steady progression.”
Sorsby is a physically gifted passer with a strong arm, and he’s mobile enough to extend plays. Multiple evaluators who spoke to The Athletic (they were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor in discussing a prospect who is not yet draft-eligible) believe it is plausible Sorsby would have been drafted ahead of Ty Simpson, who went No. 13 to the Los Angeles Rams, if he was part of the 2026 class. Evaluators want to see Sorsby improve his efficiency, decision-making and accuracy.
Discussion topics
Sharp Football Analysis
2026 NFL Schedule Rest Disparity: Teams Helped & Hurt
Last year, I made sure to give the NFL its flowers when they reversed a trend of producing unfair schedules by improving on several key factors in 2025.
Unfortunately, it turns out the evil dollar has won in 2026.
The 2026 NFL schedule is the least equitable in NFL history across most key metrics.
Let’s outline five of these metrics right now, from net rest edge to general rest advantage, and note the unfavorably historic nature of the 2026 schedule:
1. Net Rest Edge:
Last year, the largest net rest edge was +13 days.
It was an improvement over 2024 (+16 days) but was still the #5 largest net rest edge since 2000.
I have access to the last 36 years of NFL schedule data (dating back to 1990).
This year, the largest net rest edge is +15 days (Bears).
It ranks as the #2 largest net rest edge since 1990.
2. Net Rest Disadvantage:
Last year, the largest net rest disadvantage was -19 days, which was the #9 largest of the last 26 years (since 2000).
This year, the largest net rest disadvantage is -24 days (Chargers).
It ranks as the #4 largest since 1990, #2 largest since 2000, and #1 largest since 2013.
3. Net Rest Delta:
Last year, there was a 32-day swing in rest edge between the best (+13) and worst (-19) teams, the #7 largest delta for any NFL season since 2000.
This year, the delta is 39 days between the best (+15) and worst (-24) teams.
It ranks as the largest delta for any NFL season since 2000 (27 years).
4. Games with 3+ rest day advantage:
Last year, there were 61 games played where one team had 3+ days of rest advantage, the #4 most in NFL history.
This year, there are 69 such games.
It ranks as the most games in any NFL season in history.
5. Games with any rest advantage:
Last year, there were 101 games played out of 272 (37%) where one team had a rest advantage over its opponent, tied for the most in NFL history.
This year, there will be 110 games played out of 272 (40%) where one team has a rest advantage over its opponent.
It ranks as the most games in any NFL season in history.
The reason the schedule is more unfair in these regards is because the NFL has doubled down on two key beliefs, as expressed in public statements after announcing the schedule:
- The NFL believes that rest disparity does not matter at all.
- The NFL’s priority is to put the games that will get the most viewership in prime windows to sell them for the most money possible.
It is that simple for them.
Before we dig deeper, I do want to ensure I present both sides of the case for the 2026 schedule.
In 2026, the NFL did a GREAT job of eliminating three games in 10 days, reducing four games in 17 days to only one such situation, reducing negated bye weeks, and reducing the number of games played after a road Sunday night or Monday night game.
These are all things that factor into player health and safety as well as rest edges for teams.
So, while there are some significant concerns with the direction of the schedule, there were also some strides taken in certain areas, including player health, which cannot be overlooked and deserves to be commended.
With that said, let’s dig into what the data is for 2026 and why I believe having a fair schedule from a rest perspective is more important in the NFL than in any other sport.
Last year, there were three teams with over seven days of negative net rest (-8 or worse).
- Raiders won 3 games
- Commanders won 5 games
- Saints won 6 games
That’s an average of 4.7 wins per team.
Obviously, net rest does not explain all of the successes or failures for these teams.
But it certainly has an impact.
[In 2026] we have three total teams playing one or fewer games with a rest disadvantage all season:
1 – Commanders, Cowboys
0 – Titans
To have both the Commanders and Cowboys competing against the Eagles in the NFC East, while the Eagles have five games with a rest disadvantage, and both the Commanders and Cowboys have just one such game?
That seems unfair.
This will be one obstacle for the Eagles to overcome in 2026, and Philly has historically struggled when receiving less rest than their opponent.
Since 2015, when playing at 3+ days of rest disadvantage, the Eagles are 7-14-1 SU and ATS, recording -36.4% ROI.
They are 3-5 SU and 2-6-1 ATS since 2020, with -52.3% ROI.
That ranks as the #3 worst mark in the NFL over that span.
The teams most hurt by the NFL schedule makers in 2026:
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Miami Dolphins
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Kansas City Chiefs
The teams most helped by the NFL schedule makers in 2026:
- Chicago Bears
- Dallas Cowboys
- Tennessee Titans
- Arizona Cardinals
- Seattle Seahawks
ESPN
NFL says it’s following fan interest with midweek games
The NFL enjoyed a 10% jump in ratings last season, with the 18.7 million viewers per game representing the second-highest average since the data began being tracked in 1988. That has emboldened the NFL to push the limits of traditional scheduling.
“Every one of our [broadcast] partners was up,” Schroeder said of the 2025 season. “So I think as we look at balancing the collective distribution of our games, we think there’s opportunities to build on that in a selective way. And we’ve seen when we do that, our fans tune in and watch it.”
Thanksgiving week will feature games on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday. And the league believes it has maximized Christmas week with one game on Christmas Eve, three games on Christmas, a sizable Sunday slate and a Monday night matchup.
“We’re probably stretched about as thinly as we can go that week,” said Mike North, NFL vice president of broadcasting planning. “… We’re making a conscious decision to stay strong, be big in those windows. Fans vote with their remotes. They’ve shown us an interest in watching NFL games on Christmas.”
ESPN
If the Aaron Rodgers offense didn’t work in 2025, why did the Steeelers re-sign him?
the Steelers’ passing game was poor because their quarterback play was poor. At 41 years old, Rodgers’ lack of mobility and inability to take a hit dramatically limited how long the Steelers could drop back on any given play. Rodgers had the quickest time to throw among all quarterbacks last season at 2.71 seconds. He also led the league in percentage of throws that did not travel beyond the line of scrimmage … at 32.5%. That’s basically a third of all his attempts!
Rodgers has always been — and remains — a lightning-fast decision-maker. It’s one of the reasons why the ball got out so fast. But he’s relying on quick game more than he ever has before, as 54% of his throws were out in under 2.5 seconds last season according to Next Gen Stats’ numbers, his highest single-season mark since 2017 (an injury-shortened year).
More important than what is there — an overabundance of short, quick throws — is what isn’t there. Prime Rodgers was a spectacular creator. He could uncork a deep ball on the move with alacrity. He could slip tackles with quick feet and surprising toughness. But he simply cannot do this anymore. Rodgers threw on the run on only 11% of his pass attempts last season, per Next Gen Stats. From 2016 to 2022 (that is, pre-Achilles injury) he was moving on 16% of his attempts. His average distance traveled per dropback (5.7 yards) and average speed on a given dropback (3.75 mph) are both single-season lows for him over the past 10 years. He can’t really move anymore.
Because Rodgers can’t move well, he can’t respond to pressure well. Those magical play extensions are gone. They’ve all been replaced by quick dump-offs or panicked heaves to one-on-one targets downfield. Rodgers’ success rate of 19% on pressured dropbacks last year was the worst single-season mark of his career. His off-target rate when pressured — a whopping 41.9% — was the fourth-worst mark for any quarterback over the past five years. Rodgers is getting the ball out fast because he cannot stand to sit in the pocket for a millisecond longer than necessary.
All too often last season, Rodgers’ film looked like this. He makes the right read here, finding Gainwell out of the backfield with leverage on the linebacker. It’s third-and-6, and Gainwell has to get to the 4-yard line to convert. That might have been tough, but a timely and accurate throw could get him there. Instead, Rodgers wilts away from the incoming hit, which hugely impacts his accuracy. The ball sails, and it’s fourth down.
