Oh boy. Here we go.
Be honest, if there was on preview you were most looking forward to it’s this one, if only for what you might think I’m going to say.
But LSU hasn’t been very good for the last four years under Matt McMahon. Ironically enough, last year was their best season per the analytics, as the Tigers finished 61st in KenPom. But in three of the four seasons under McMahon, LSU only won 3 conference games (or less). In his second year they were 9-9, but barely inside the top 100 of analytics and
easily missed the NCAA Tournament.
To be frank, McMahon was put behind the eight ball by the previous coaching staff and administration, and then never quite figured out what lane he wanted to play in with his roster building. The indecisiveness of it clipped his wings, and it led to four pretty miserable seasons in Baton Rouge.
So why not turn to the guy who put you into that mess to begin with?
Previous SEC Previews:
- 12. Auburn Tigers, 7-11
- 13. Georgia Bulldogs: 6-12
- 14.South Carolina Gamecocks, 4-14
- 15. Ole Miss Rebels: 4-14
- 16. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-15
LSU Tigers
- Last season: 15 – 17 (3-15 in conference) #61
- The Masses Prediction: 11th in conference
- SEC Media: 14th
- Analytics Average: 14th in conference, 49th overall
HEAD COACH: Will Wade | 1st Season, 0-0
For all the bravado he tries to exhibit, the moment the lights shone in his eyes following the news of his rule breaking hit the presses, Will Wade melted like white chocolate on blacktop in the midst of a Louisiana August.
When the FBI handed over their nonsense case of all these coaches pay for play schemes, trying to tie it into a weird case of defrauding state colleges, Wade disappeared into the shadows like Homer Simpson vanishing into the bushes in the well-known gif. The NCAA eventually handed down a show cause, and we all got to forget about Will Wade for a while. In the aftermath, Wade could have become a champion for NIL and paying players. Sure, he broke the rules, but the rules were already broken and were harming the welfare of the players. It’s an easy argument to make. But he didn’t stand up. He disappeared.
He waited out his show cause, took a gig at McNeese, boosted by some LSU money men who gave him an elite roster building level of NIL in the Southland, and predictably, spending way more than anyone else, he won a bunch of games. But the competition stepped up when he went to NC State last year, and the gunslinging image fell flat when his roster fell apart down the stretch, losing six of their last seven regular season games to barely squeak into the NCAA Tournament.
LSU fans are clinging to the way things played out on the court during his first run, when he was beating lesser rosters with his assembled talent paid for by circumventing NCAA laws. Regardless of whether you felt those laws were right, or even just, they were on the books. And there were good coaches who played by those rules, and Wade did not. But the reality of the on-court product at LSU from 2017 to 2022— is it was pretty mediocre. They had one really good season in 2019 when they went 16-2 in league play, but it was also the year a 16-16 South Carolina team went 11-7 in conference. The late game luck was strongly in their favor as they went 5-1 in overtime games, and that doesn’t include a game winning tip in at Kentucky that was a clear goal tend. The rest of the run was solid if unspectacular.
The reality is Wade isn’t a good enough coach to win without a significant talent advantage. And his first attempt to build a roster was meant to thumb his nose at the NCAA and its rules, but his roster is still FAR from being complete. I’m skeptical this second run is as popular with LSU fans as they remember the first run being.
It’s been an interesting decade. Johnny Jones is the coach responsible for the results of 2016-17, and he’s back on the bench as an assistant coach under Wade. Wade took over the next season in 17-18, then McMahon was cleaning things up by 2022-23.
Whatever you might say, and there’s plenty, LSU is rarely boring. Maybe that’s why they really fired McMahon, it was less that he lost too many games and more that he just was kind of dull.
LOST PRODUCTION
16th in % minutes, 100% | 16th in % points, 100% | 16th in % possessions, 100%
Everyone is gone.
LSU leaned into experience through the portal last year and it raised their floor, but did nothing for winning basketball games. They were sunk when Dedan Thomas, Jr, their projected starting point guard, was lost for the season with an injury. They were 12-1 in the non-conference with Thomas leading the way, but his injury clipped him during the first five SEC games and the Tigers went 1-4. He tried playing against Florida and Arkansas, but they lost those games as well. With Thomas they had put themselves into the NCAA Tournament conversation, and without him they quickly fell out of it.
He’s going to suit up for Houston this season, and anyone with remaining eligibility is going to be wearing a new uniform as well. Max Mackinnon, Marquel Sutton, Pablo Tamba, and Rashad King all spent their last eligibility. And Michael Nwoko (Xavier), Jalen Reed (Michigan), Robert Miller (Miami), and Jalen Reece (Texas A&M) will all finish theirs elsewhere.
Through most of the fall, LSU had four players listed on their online roster. That number is now up to 10 as of this writing. We’re going to start with who is known to be ready to play this season, and it’s those guys, three of which are walk ons. If they run into any problems, I guess they can hold open tryouts and just play with a random walk on level player in the 5th spot. But the SEC has TV timeslots to fill.
Wade didn’t welcome back anyone from McMahon’s last roster, so it’s all brand new. The guys we know are eligible are all transfers. The best one is probably Mouhamed Dioubate, the former big wing forward from Alabama and Kentucky. Dioubate isn’t a big time scorer, or much of a creator, but he’s a sound basketball player who can defend, rebound, and he’s capable of finishing plays. He’s never been much of a shooter, but he’s a guy who definitely knows who he is and makes his team better because of it.
Michigan State’s backup point guard, Divine Ugochukwu also transferred in. He didn’t see the floor much playing behind Jeremy Fears. But when he was on the floor he was pretty solid. His assist rate could be higher, but he does a solid job taking care of the ball, and began to shoot the ball better last season. Kansas State transfer Abdi Bashir, Jr. brings in some elite level shooting. But I’m not sure why everyone keeps trying out Austin Nuñez, he couldn’t get on the floor two years ago at Ole Miss, or three years ago at Arizona State, and then played poorly last year at UTSA. But he’s back in the SEC now.
The rest of the roster is a mix of 5th year players and former international professionals. The 5th year guys seem the most likely to be able to play this year and LSU has gotten commitments from some good ones. Donovan Dent was one of the top transfers a season ago after being the Mountain West player of the year at New Mexico. His production was a little less consistent playing for Mick Cronin, but he was still one of the better point guards in the Big 10 last year. He’s best in the open floor where he’s able to attack from all angles, and let his playmaking and passing take over.
Skyy Clark has been well-travelled, but seemed to find a home at UCLA as Dent’s back court mate last season. He had his best season shooting the basketball and fit well off the ball.
Then there’s the international players, Wade’s attempt to build a professional level roster in Baton Rouge already took a hit when Israeli point guard Yam Madar went back to Israel to play next season after committing to LSU as a 25-year-old player. Wade is also supporting RJ Luis who has almost no shot to play this season after signing a G-League deal following his entry into the 2025 NBA Draft class. And then Brazilian forward Marcio Santos stepped away after struggling to get eligible.
But they’re still efforting with four international signees who have yet to be cleared, like Brice Dessert, a 23-year-old French player with 7 years of pro basketball in different European leagues, most recently in Turkey. He’s a big and physical forward with good feet and the strength to finish around the rim. Saliou Niang is a 22-year-old high upside Italian and Senegalese wing who was drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2025 NBA Draft, and has played in the top Italian league since 2023.
Michael Ružić is the one guy who might have the clearest path towards eligibility (he has since been cleared). First off, he’s not a seasoned veteran; he’s still 19. He has played in the top Spanish league since 2023, and has come on more recently. His upside is there as a skilled stretch four. He’s not super athletic but plays with good pace and could be a solid contributor early on.
Gilad Levy, a 24-year-old Israeli who spent this last season in Spain, has been described as tall, and a basketball player.
Honestly, this is a train wreck. There are 11 players listed, and the majority of these players have questionable eligibility. Will Wade did this on purpose, thinking he was smarter than everyone. And even if all of these players get their eligibility, this roster and its depth is… fine. This is a possible NCAA Tournament team, but mostly due to the fact that Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark are pretty danged good, and both led a UCLA team to the NCAA Tournament last season.
But that UCLA roster was better than this one is by a good amount, and that squad earned a 7 seed.
So yes 11 players, but Jordan Bender is an unranked recruit, despite being the son of a former NBA player. Austin Nuñez has been questionable at best at each high major stop. Gilad Levy is tall, but far from an impact player. So now you’re down to 8 guys, which is a good rotation for most teams. But so much relies upon Saliou Niang and Brice Dessert getting cleared.
Forget the 5th years, even I’m assuming most of the 5th year guys who are challenging things in court will win their eligibility. But Wade has been saved by Dent and Clark. Without those two this roster would be completely doomed.
It might still be.
The big bad gunslinging gangster Will Wade scheduled nine quad four games at home. Playing Gonzaga and Houston on the road should be a big challenge, and the Acrisure series is a confusing pod-based series where LSU will face both SMU and Arizona State. SMU may be a tournament team, and ASU is helmed by Randy Bennett so I would expect a quick turnaround. Then they get Wake Forest at home in the ACC-SEC Challenge, and Wake has failed to make the tournament in every year under Steve Forbes. But they’ve always been pretty good. LSU can afford to lose both Houston and Gonzaga games, as long as they at least split the Acrisure series, and do not lose at home to Wake.
Opening at home against South Carolina is as much of a soft entry as exists in the SEC. But man, the next seven games… all likely tournament teams, 4 on the road. Just don’t lose them all. The home and homes are Auburn, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. That’s not easy, but not wildly difficult. A 3-3 record there is possible. Plus, you get Texas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Florida at the PMAC. There are chances to notch signature wins. Of the road games, I think LSU is likely marking Mississippi State, Georgia, and Oklahoma as games they can win. If you can win 5 at home, and 3 on the road, I think you can make the NCAA Tournament.
THE RULING
So much of LSU’s season is hinging on court case victories, and NCAA leniency on international clearances. Honestly, if I were an LSU basketball fan I’d be furious that my head coach thought he was just smarter than everyone else, and put together a roster of question marks.
There are 15 other coaches in the SEC, and 15 other rosters with maybe one or two question marks, and LSU is dealing with 6 out of 11 spots. They’ve already lost Yam Madar and Marcio Santos, both players committed to LSU and then gave up when they saw the uphill battle to playing basketball this season.
From a basketball perspective it’s really hard to gauge a roster you don’t have any idea what it will look like. Even this record projection is like gambling, just randomly guessing who might and who might not play this season for the LSU Tigers. We’re days away from real games that count being played, and the official LSU roster has barely enough players to field a rotation. More than that may be practicing, but that doesn’t matter.
As a rule, I don’t think players who have earned a paycheck to play basketball in Europe for more than four seasons should ever sniff NCAA competition.
If that were the rule, Dessert would be out. Levy would be out. But the NCAA seems to be taking a different approach, and there have been many players already who have called it quits. So how can we accurately analyze LSU’s roster?
I’ll assume everyone is eligible, and still think Will Wade isn’t a good enough coach to take the existing talent to a top 25 level ranking. If they’re all playing, this looks like a possible tournament team. But it doesn’t look like a SEC challenger.
My Results: LSU Tigers — 11th in Conference, 7-11
About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections.
If you’d like to submit your picks, click here for the Google Form we used. If you want to know your results,send me an email.
Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.
The projections: This is new! In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.
GLOSSARY
* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player
GP – Games Played
%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury
%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.
ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.
BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.
PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.
PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.
For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.
