Louisville under Jeff Brohm has spent the money to establish itself as a contender in the ACC on an annual basis, and the Cardinals have won at least nine games in each of the last three seasons. They have leaned heavily on the portal to sustain that success, and this offseason was no exception: they brought in over 30 transfers, and have their fourth different starting quarterback in as many years.
Brohm has done well to massage all of that turnover into a successful program, especially on the offensive
side. The Cards’ offense took a bit of a step back last season, though, and it was fair to wonder how Lincoln Kienholz, who spent years as a reserve at Ohio State, would adjust to being a full-time starter at quarterback for the first time.
And Kienholz wasn’t very good in the first half of his first game, but has been impressive pretty much from then onward. It helps that he has one of the country’s most explosive backfields, but Kienholz adds an extra dimension himself with his ability to make things happen outside the pocket.
Louisville has been a bit chaotic in general because its offensive line has issues, but it has been on the country’s most explosive offenses, which tends to paper over down-to-down problems. The line has had its problems blocking up on straight run plays, but Louisville has two home-run hitters at running back in Keyjuan Brown and Isaac Brown, which really helps a lot. The Cardinals are leaning on those guys a bit more than they did last season.
Things tend to go really well or really badly for Louisville’s offense: Louisville ranks among the nation’s worst in havoc rate allowed—it gets a lot of runs stuffed—and when teams do get the Cards to a third down, it tends to be a long third down. Louisville’s late-down success rate also isn’t great. When you can put Kienholz in obvious passing situations and also keep him in the pocket, he can look mediocre.
The hard part is doing that on a consistent basis. NC State’s defense has done a terrible job in limiting explosive plays this season—passing plays, running plays, you name it. Not many FBS teams have been worse than NC State in this regard. Hey, you get what you don’t pay for. Can they figure out a way to change that this week, even if Kienholz doesn’t play? I wouldn’t count on it.
Louisville’s defense has been nearly as bad, though, and its secondary is both banged-up and mistake-prone, which provides CJ Bailey and the Pack an opportunity to perhaps stretch the field for once. The Cards are hemorrhaging explosives as often as State, both on the ground and through the air. Louisville has allowed four pass plays over 60 yards this season (you’re gonna want to read that link), and NC State’s offense has only one over 30. Something’s got to give!
This has the potential to be a chaotic game with a bunch of stupid nonsense college football crap, which is annoying but also the only way to live. Louisville has been extremely fortunate to turn the ball over only once this season, and it is among the most penalized teams in the country. If CJ Bailey can manage not to turn the ball over for an entire 60 minutes, and a couple breaks go in State’s direction, hey, who knows. It’s probably going to be dumb, though.
