The Basics
Team: Virginia Cavaliers
Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
Enrollment: 17,901
Head Coach: Tony Elliot (19-24)
Record: 8-1 (5-0)
Wins: Coastal Carolina, W&M, Stanford, FSU, UL, WSU, UNC, Cal
Losses: NC State
Transfer portal rank: 26th (3 4-stars, 27 3-stars)
After a tough game against the Noles last weekend, the Deacs do not get much of a break as they head to Charlottesville to take on an 8-1 Virginia team that is currently unbeaten in conference play and has their sights set on the ACC Championship Game. With their win over Cal last weekend, the Hoos have moved up to 12th in the current AP poll, making them the highest ranked team in the ACC. Wake Forest definitely has their work cut out for them this weekend if they are going to bounce back from that blowout loss to Florida State and pull of a road upset against the Cavs.
Offense
Points per game: 36.4 (18th)
Yards per game: 439.0 (27th)
Run/pass split: 54/46
Rush yards per game: 186.7 (34th)
Pass yards per game: 252.3 (45th)
3rd down conversions: 50% (16th)
Sacks allowed per game: 1.44 (39th)
Turnovers per game: 0.7 (7th)
This may be the most all-around complete team Wake has played all season–the Cavs are top 50 in almost every statistical category and can beat teams relying on the pass or the run. Through the air, quarterback Chandler Morris is completing 67% of his passes this season for 2,069 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He is very confident and poised in the pocket, and he has pinpoint accuracy that allows him to put the ball on a dime in tough spots down the field. He doesn’t have the biggest arm Wake has faced this season, but he has enough to make downfield shots a concern for the Deacs.
Despite only running the ball 48 times in 9 games, Morris has over 200 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground this year. He is very fast for a quarterback, but at 6-0, 190lbs, he is not going to be difficult to bring down. He will probably not take off running unless there is a huge lane of open grass in front of him.
Morris has a trio of very good receivers to throw to in Trell Harris, Jahmal Edrine and Cameron Ross. Combined, the 3 have accounted for 104 receptions for 1,358 yards and 7 touchdowns this season. Harris, the 6-0 senior, is probably the biggest threat down the field. He has great hands and comes up with some spectacular catches on 50-50 balls.
Cameron Ross is more of a Greg Dortch type YAC threat from the slot. He is very fast and is also a big-time special teams player. In their 9 games this season, Ross is averaging 38.5 yards per kick return and 10.1 yards per punt return. Virginia is currently the best team in the ACC on kick return.
On the ground, UVA relies heavily on NC Central transfer J’Mari Taylor, who is leading the ACC in rushing attempts. He has run the ball 150 times this season for 686 yards (4.6 ypc) and 11 touchdowns, so despite getting the ball more than every other back in the conference, he is still just 6th in the ACC in yards per game at 76.2. At 5-9, 204 pounds, he is not the most physical back the Deacs have played this season, but he has scored a touchdown in 7 of UVA’s 9 games this season. His 11 touchdowns are 2nd in the ACC (behind Haynes King) and tied for 5th in the nation.
Defense
Points allowed per game: 22.2 (52nd)
Yards allowed per game: 342.8 (45th)
Rush yards allowed per game: 110.0 (26th)
Pass yards allowed per game: 231.8 (88th)
3rd down defense: 29% (7th)
Sacks per game: 2.56 (27th)
Turnovers Forced per game: 1.8 (25th)
On defense, the matchup is pretty unfavorable for the Deacs, as the Hoos are pretty solid against the run and weaker against the pass this season. We saw a similar matchup last weekend against Florida State, and that obviously did not go well for Wake. The Deacs are just simply not competent enough passing the ball for it to matter whether or not a team can defend the pass or not, so Wake is once again going to have to rely almost solely on the run again this weekend.
The bad news is that only 2 teams have rushed for over 150 yards against Virginia this season. The good news is that those 2 games were against NC State and Florida State–games that UVA lost and won in OT respectively. That means if Wake can get Demond Claiborne going against the Cavs, without holding, history says they should have a good shot at pulling off the upset.
That will be easier said than done against a Virginia defensive line that has been pretty dominant this season. Between DE Mitchell Melton, DT Daniel Rickert, DT Jacob Holmes, DE Fisher Camac, and DE Cazeem Moore, the main guys on the UVA line have combined for 114 tackles, 22 tackles for loss, and 16.5 sacks. The Deacs played a similarly talented defensive line a couple of weeks ago against SMU–the results were 13 total points and 85 rushing yards on 35 carries. If Wake has a performance like that on Saturday, we will probably see a repeat of the Florida State game.
The other big name on the Virginia defense is Jr. linebacker Kam Robinson. Robinson is a do-it-all backer who has accounted for 54 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 pick sixes, and a fumble recovery this season. He creates havoc everywhere on the field and is now a semifinalist (1 of 12) for the Butkus Award honoring the best linebacker in the nation. This is a guy Wake needs to locate on every play, because he has the ability to completely change the game from the defensive side of the ball.
Virginia is 8-1 this season and highly ranked, but they have been flirting with a loss for several weeks now. In the last 3 weeks, the Hoos have had close calls against Washington State (2 point win), UNC (1 point win), and Cal (pick 6 on the final play to win by 10)—that’s 3 wins by basically a combined 6 points over teams that are not very good this season. Wake looked really bad last week, but this is a winnable game if the Deacs can bounce back and run the ball effectively. It’s time to find out what this team is made of.
Go Deacs!
