We’re already a week into the college basketball season. Given that we haven’t seen too many games, it’s hard to form concrete takeaways, but the league has avoided disaster up to this point and notched a really good win when Tom Izzo and Michigan State took down John Calipari and Arkansas in East Lansing.
Here’s the first few games of next week’s slate, set to tip off on Monday:
Maine Black Bears at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Time/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET on BTN
- KenPom Spread: Knights by 19
“Rebuild” is a dramatic term in sports, so I’m gonna call what Rutgers has going on a “reload.” The Scarlet Knights’ would-be
dream season with two lottery picks on the roster ended disastrously when they missed the NCAA Tournament entirely.
Even in their down years Rutgers has had a tough, hard-nosed defense that’s allowed it to play games on Steve Pikiell’s terms. The Scarlet Knights had KenPom’s fifth most efficient defense in the country in 2023-24 in spite of the overall losing record. The hope was that Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey could breathe life into a moribund offense, but the defense fell off in the process. Rutgers’ defense fell all the way to 116th nationally, the first time the Knights have ever been on the wrong side of 100.
Now Pikiell has to rebuild that defensive culture with a brand new group. Things look to be on the right track after holding Rider to 53, but the momentum has to keep up.
Maine is winless on the season with 10+ point losses to George Washington and Stony Brook. The Black Bears’ offense has been remarkably poor. If Rutgers is gonna get back to being itself, it’ll need to make an example out of a bad offense. Make this the kind of score that gets posted at halftime and makes you go “wow.”
Cleveland State Vikings at Northwestern Wildcats
- Time/TV: 8:30 p.m. ET on BTN
- KenPom Spread: ‘Cats by 17
Northwestern is interesting because, like Rutgers, the Wildcats are also transitioning to a new era. Gone are the defining players of the past few NCAA Tournament teams like Boo Buie, Brooks Barnhizer, Ty Berry and Matthew Nicholson.
This is Nick Martinelli’s team now and he’s looked excellent, averaging 18.5 points across the Wildcats’ first two contests. Jayden Reid, a transfer from USF, has taken the reins at point guard and put up solid performances across the first two gimme games as well. Cincinnati transfer Arrinten Page, starting at center, is a few boards away from averaging a double-double.
There’s not much more to remark on other than the need for the ‘Cats to keep this going. Cleveland State is a tad more formidable than Northwestern’s first two opponents, but is ultimately still the type of team that should be mostly put away with ten minutes to go in the second half.
West Georgia Wolves at UCLA Bruins
- Time/TV: 10 p.m. ET on B1G+
- KenPom Spread:
UCLA has looked shaky through its first two buy games. I won’t pretend to be an expert on mid-major basketball, but those performances came against teams in that sweet spot right around the 200s in KenPom that tend to give high-major competition a spook every now and then.
West Georgia, however, is a team I have simply never heard of because it is still in the process of transitioning into Division-I, joining the ASUN just last season and going 6-25. The Wolves traveled to Lincoln to open the season and lost 86-53 to Nebraska. This is not to talk down on a program making the jump, just to describe the kind of team that’ll be in the Pauley Pavilion on Monday night.
If there’s a time for UCLA to get together and firmly put away an opponent, it’s now. The Bruins could do with a convincing win before having to handle Koa Peat and Arizona right after.
