How much do good bullpens correlate with winning teams in 2026? St Louis Cardinal fans want to know…

I was already leaning towards writing about this before the Brewers series, but after last night’s game, it really hammered the point home. So, through the lens of my own bullpen rankings, I will compare which teams are really thriving with a light’s out, effective bullpen, and which teams are bleeding wins because of theirs. In 2026, baseball continues to evolve, and I have a feeling that bullpens are more important than ever. It could end up that I reveal teams wasting resources on amazing bullpens,

or maybe all the best teams will have the best bullpens; we shall see…

I’m going to do this in an odd sort of way, using something I am going to call Correlation Points. I am looking at team reliever stats on fangraphs, with a variety of different stats, including rate stats and fWAR.

There are 12 teams with a bullpen ERA under 4, and those teams are actually 3.8 ERA or lower. The rest of MLB is over 4 ERA. There are 10 MLB bullpens with an ERA 4.0-4.5. Then, the worst, most neglected bullpens are over 4.50 ERA, with only a handful of MLB bullpens performing at 5.0 ERA or worse. I am using a three tier system, assigning 3 CP (correlation points, remember?) to tier 1 teams, 1.5 CP to the mid-tier teams, and .5 CP to the worst teams. But wait, what about the absolutely elite bullpens? Don’t they mean something? Only 4 MLB bullpens have an ERA under 3.5. I’ll go ahead and assign those teams 3.5 CP. It ended up convenient that by my ratings sytem, the 4 best bullpens weighed out the 4 worse bullpens as the outliers. Instead of half a CP, the 4 worst get absolutely no Correlation Points. And that’s how I’m doing ERA.

Including xERA is a way to include a balance to the flukiness of ERA. I’ll again be assigning 3 CP to teams with a rate under 4.0. No bonus points this time because the teams are more tightly packed. In this case, the middle teams with an xERA under 4.40 will get 2 CP, and the worst bullpens of MLB will get .5 CP.

And then of course, you should look at it from a Fielding Independent Pitching perspective, normalizing and leveling the playing field when it comes to fielding/defense masking the effectiveness of a bullpen. I’ll use the same system for xERA here. Under 4.0 FIP = 3 CP. Mid teams get 2 CP, and the worst bullpens only get .5 CP. I’m going to skip using xFIP because you don’t want your bullpen giving up a lot of home runs and then trying to normalize that.

And because it’s good if your bullpen can eat a bunch of innings while also performing well, I’ll simply be using fWAR totals as correlation points, so the most valuable bullpens by counting stat WAR will have quite an effect on my Correlation Points system. But not all winning bullpens are used frequently, so I want to level that playing field by not just using fWAR. I want to see what teams have good bullpens across the board.

After I totaled the Bullpen Correlation Points, I listed teams’ Winning Percentage and then assigned Record Correlation Points, mirroring the Bullpen CP totals but assigning according to record. I was then able to tell what percentage of teams records match up with the performance of their 2026 bullpen.

Tiering MLB Bullpens

Tiers by ERA

• Elite Tier: Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers
• Top Tier
  SEA
  NYM
  SDP
  MIA
  TEX
  CLE
  TOR
  LAD
• Mid Tier
  CHC
  DET
  ARI
  CHW
  STL
  BAL
  PHI
  HOU
  TBR
  PIT
• Bad Bullpens
  SFG
  LAA
  CIN
  COL
• Dumpster Fire
  ATH
  WSN
  KCR
  MIN

Tiers by xERA

• Top Tier
  NYY
  SDP
  PHI
  MIL
  ATL
  LAD
  NYM
  MIA
  TOR
  DET
  BAL
• Mid Tier
  HOU
  BOS
  CLE
  ARI
  TEX
  SEA
  LAA
  CHW
  ATH
  PIT
  SFG
• Bottom Tier
  TBR
  MIN
  COL
  CHC
  STL
  KCR
  WSN
  CIN

Tiering Bullpens by FIP

• Top Tier
  SEA
  ATL
  PHI
  NYY
  LAD
  MIL
  MIA
  NYM
  BOS
  SDP
  CLE
  TOR
  BAL
• Mid Tier
  ARI
  TEX
  DET
  STL
  CHW
  PIT
  COL
  SFG
• Bottom Tier
  HOU
  ATH
  LAA
  TBR
  MIN
  CHC
  WSN
  CIN
  KCR

Just to give you an idea on how these rankings can fluctuate depending on what stat we are using. Notice how the Cardinals bullpen is either mid-tier, or bottom tier by xERA. Compare and contrast teams, if you’d like.

Now, for the Bullpen Correlation Points! The more CP, the better the bullpen across all categories, also including bullpen fWAR.

Tiering MLB Bullpens with Bullpen Correlation Points

• Elite Tier: Atlanta, Milwaukee, San Diego! All are among the best across the board using all major stat categories. The cream of the bullpen crop.
• Top Tier: only a small step down. If your favorite thing in baseball is a very effective bullpen to shut things down for the starting pitcher or just keep you in the game, you might want to be a fan of the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets, Marlins, or Phillies, if that’s your thing (a second favorite team, of course!)
• Mid Tier: The mid bullpens are ones like the Red Sox, Guardians, Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Pirates, Rockies, or Astros. These ‘pens get the job done well enough. You might have noticed, none of these teams are among the very best in Winning %. The best you can hope for in this mid tier is a team like the Mariners, or Guardians, two teams who have the same record just above .500. Which is good enough in their divisions, strangely enough.
• Bottom Tier: The Cardinals bullpen is the best of the bottom tier, but what has weighed them down a bit is their low fWAR total. They are probably a more mid tier team, hopefully, but for now I’ll just have to rank them as among the bottom of the bullpens. The Giants, Angels, first place Rays, Athletics, Cubs, Twins, and Reds join them. The Reds of course have a much worse bullpen than the Cardinals, but let this be a cautionary tale that the Cardinals deserve some bullpen help!
• Dumpster Fires: The Nationals and Royals bullpens are just dumpsters filled with napalm on a hot summer day. Fans of these teams must turn off the TV once the starter is out, unless they are up by 7+ runs or something.

And now for the fun part! Do bullpens really matter a lot? How much do bullpens correlate with a team’s winning percentage? Bullpens after all are almost like bench players, in many ways. The pitchers don’t play as much overall, and are a bit of a hodge podge motley crew of journeymen and prospects. What I found may surprise!

• I was surprised to find SEVEN teams had a DIRECT correlation between their record and bullpen. By that I mean their bullpen correlation points exactly matched their ranking according to their winning percentage.
• 11 teams had either a direct or a very strong correlation between bullpen effectiveness and wins and losses.
• Over half the teams had a close correlation between bullpen and winning. That’s sort of impressive, all things considered.
• 21 teams had some correlation between their bullpen’s goodness and their record. I think that says a bullpen is pretty important.
• Only three teams appeared to have really no correlation between their bullpen and their win/loss record. Can you guess who they are? The Mets really damn good bullpen cannot save them from whatever is happening in NY… while the Cubs and especially the Rays cannot be dragged down by a bad bullpen. I don’t want to see how good the Cubs would be with a bullpen.
• The Cardinals are another team that is outplaying its bullpen, saved by defense and some hitting. There is only a weak correlation between the team’s bullpen and its record. The flip side of the coin is the Padres having an absolute top tier bullpen, while playing under .500 baseball. One of the best bullpens cannot save them. Same with over half of the AL East: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles are floundering despite effective bullpens.
• Teams with a direct correlation between bullpen effectiveness and record: Brewers elite ‘pen means a top tier team (while they do everything well), Marlins bullpen making them a contender, Rangers and Diamondbacks midrange bullpens making them around .500, and the Athletics bottom tier bullpen keeping them towards the lower reaches of MLB.
• I don’t think the Braves would be as good as they are without a top tier bullpen. Playoff ready teams the Dodgers and Yankees have bullpens that are not preventing them from winning many games.
• The Mets should probably trade away most of their bullpen to make their team better but I have no idea how they could do that.

Given how tough a bullpen can be to pin down, I think 21 teams having some kind of correlation between their record and their bullpen is interesting enough to draw a conclusion that maybe teams shouldn’t skimp on their reliever corps. A good to elite bullpen is very difficult to assemble, but there is some evidence that you shouldn’t blow off the assembly of it. Sure, you will have freak teams like the Rays that can win a lot despite an ineffective bullpen (and to a much lesser extent, the Cardinals), but overall bullpens might be a little underrated.

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1992 Music Part 2

So last week I ran out of time and only got through 15 of the 30 (non heavy metal) albums I had selected for review. I am nearly out of time this week, but I will howl at the moon a bit tonight and reveal 15 more! Night owl here…

• Medicine – ‘Shot Forth Self Living’ I would describe Medicine as USA’s answer to the UK’s My Bloody Valentine, even more distorted and over the top but different, in some ways also more mellow. A shoegaze genre classic from the band that would later appear on the Crow soundtrack and gain many more fans.
• Boredoms – ‘Wow2’ the Boredoms (perhaps one of the most uniquely captivating bands of all time, or at least from Japan) also released the more well known ‘Pop Tatari’ in 1992, but I have enjoyed Wow2 even more! You cannot go wrong either way if you love avant garde rock, experimental music, and weirdo punk.
• Lush – ‘Spooky’ another album of shoegazer goodness, but also a bit dreampop and even goth or punk at times, the UK’s Lush made a splash in 1992 with Spooky, a really fun but dark album. Top song picks: Tiny Smiles, Superblast!, Laura, and Starlust.
• Gang Starr – ‘Daily Operation’ all time hiphop classic, file somewhere between conscientious rap and gangster rap, with strong hiphop production elements. Guru and Premier at their best!
• Thinking Plague – ‘In This Life’ totally mental, super advanced prog rock of the highest order. Only a few preview tracks on their bandcamp, so you’re just going to have to buy this one. I did years ago, and trust me, it’s worth it!
• Pete Rock & CL Smooth – ‘Mecca and the Soul Brother’ stumbled across this excellent early 90s hiphop album and I think you should listen to it. It’s certainly going into my hiphop collection!
• Ruins – ‘Burning Stone’ another highly original band from Japan, the contrast between Ruins and the Boredoms being that Ruins was a duo on this album, and are much more tightly controlled and focused on the music genre known to humans as Zeuhl. A band like no other. I have had the fortune of seeing them multiple times in Chicago. Flat out astounding!
• Stone Temple Pilots – ‘Core’ I had this tape before they blew up, and before anyone else I knew. They were being promoted at some mall record store, on an end cap. They were opening for Megadeth so I gave it a try, and loved it! And they were even better live. That didn’t matter to the Megadeth fans though, they booed at the end. I thought it was funny, and it was my first concert. STP’s debut album!
• Meat Beat Manifesto – ‘Satyricon’ Jack Dangers and MBM began to move away from noisy industrial hiphop party music to something a bit more nuanced… However, this album still retains much of that early Meat Beat Manifesto energy and is perhaps their most signature release, bridging the band into new sonic territories.
• Frontline Assembly – ‘Tactical Neural Implant’ similar to MBM, Frontline Assembly delivered an all time industrial dance classic in 1992, all the while being more futuristic sounding than just about anyone else at the time outside of NIN and Skinny Puppy.
• Showbiz and A.G. – ‘Runaway Slave’ and another classic hiphop release from 1992! Definitely adding this one to my hiphop collection as well.
• Thinking Fellers Union Local 282 – ‘Mother Of All Saints’ I may end up moving this up the list further some day *same goes for Showbiz and AG* but for now, let me just say I’m intrigued and I want to hear more! Bandcamp link, go buy a lesser known bands tunes! Good stuff.
• High Rise – ‘Dispersion’ Japan really exploded onto the scene in 1992 at least in my mind, with releases by the Boredoms and Ruins, but High Rise may have been the most impressive in the intensity department, taking psyche rock to new levels and loudness, soloing all over the place with no fucks given. One of the louder live shows I have scene, incredible. The most in-your-face stoner rock possible. (bandcamp)
• Naked City – ‘Grand Guignol’ and ‘Leng Tch’e’ bandcamp and youtube links, respectively. I couldn’t choose just one album from 1992 Naked City by John Zorn. Grand Guignol includes covers of 20th century avant classical composers while Leng Tch’e is a longform sludge metal/drone release. Neither sound alike or like the previous Naked City album. All three albums completely necessary.
• Steven Jesse Bernstein – ‘Prison’ little known “rapper” Bernstein reminds us of one of the roots of hiphop here, spoken word and beat poetry to a sampler collage. A piece of art melding a uniquely crafted vision, and one of the hidden gems I’ve unearthed doing this project. You won’t even remotely understand what I’m talking about until you hear this masterpiece.
• Ween – ‘Pure Guava’ part of Ween’s early evolution into what they would later become, I’d describe this as one of my favorite Ween albums but I pretty like all of them, so I’m not sure what to say other than that Ween occupy their own corner of the music world and this is them becoming who they are.
• Screaming Trees – ‘Sweet Oblivion’ and to round out my 1992 picks for music listening, I don’t think any list about 1992 is complete without Sweet Oblivion. Stacked with classic songs that conjure up that time period rather effectively. Music as time machine, no need to invent one. I could listen to the song “Nearly Lost You There” every day of the week. “Dollar Bill” is another classic track. The whole album is stacked, really.

And last but not least I actually have the complete 1992 (non heavy metal) playlist ready! Link here

1992 Heavy Metal Playlist next week! At some point I’ll just list a bunch of years youtube playlists.

Thanks for reading all that, if you did! You rock. Special all star break edition next week… stay tuned.