The Los Angeles Rams’ passing game has been buck average so far in 2026. They are middle of the pack in several key metrics from Pro Football Focus (PFF):
- Success rate: 48.4% (17th)
- Completion rate: 66.1% (17th)
- Passer rating: 100.60 (12th)
There are some silver linings. LA is still explosive through the air. They need to become more efficient on a play-by-play basis.
- Yards per attempt: 8.4 (7th)
- Explosive pass rate: 18.6% (8th)
- Pressure rate over expectation: -3.2% (9th)
- Pressure rate: 30.6% (8th)
In terms of the Rams’ leading man, Matthew Stafford individually ranks as PFF’s 22nd quarterback in offensive grade. The veteran has earned a positive grade on 12.4% of his plays, which puts him 30th of the 41 quarterbacks
to drop back so far this season. Negative plays comprise 8.8% of his total and that is good for 20th of 41.
In defense of Stafford, both he and the Rams offense overall were inept in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers. LA was able to bounce back in a big way in their encore performance against the New York Giants. The real test comes in the next three weeks versus the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills. The Denver and Philly defenses are formidable. The Rams will need to outscore the Bills in Week 5.
There is no sense in prematurely saying this offense is in trouble or not as good as last year. It’s still early. A rough opening performance is skewing numbers and a larger sample size is required.
Still, there are some concerning passing game trends for the Rams that cannot be ignored. We must continue to check in and track these metrics in order to gauge whether improvement exists or is being sustained.
These are the parts of Stafford’s game I would be concerned about moving forward:
- Turnover-worthy play rate: 4.8% (3.3% in 2025)
- Big-time throw rate: 3.3% (7.7% in 2025)
- Big-time throw to turnover-worthy ratio: 0.67 (2.23 in 2025)
- Attempts 20+ yards: 3/7 for 114 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 2 BTT, 2 TWP, 55.2 pass grade
- Attempts 10-19 yards: 10/16 for 184 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0 BTT, 1 TWP, 73.8 pass grade
- Attempts 0-9 yards: 19/24 for 144 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 BTT, 0 TWP, 59.7 pass grade
Sean McVay and Stafford are going to live and die by the deep ball. So far they have mostly died when targeting this area of the field. This is an area of the offense that needs immediate improvement, although it could in part be a defect of the receiving group. LA’s pass catchers lack long speed in the aggregate. They could struggle in this facet all season unless someone like Terrance Ferguson steps up consistently.
LA’s bread and butter will always be over the middle of the field. It’s encouraging to see positive and consistent production in this area. The offense won’t function without it.
But more concerning is Stafford’s performance in the short area of the field. Defenses in 2026 will prioritize taking away the explosive play. They want to force opposing quarterbacks to remain patient and take the underneath pass. Whether the Rams and Stafford can remain disciplined remains to be seen—sometimes their aggressiveness gets the best of them.
Out of 24 throws inside ten yards, the Rams have only gained six first downs. This also underscores their recent struggles on third and fourth down. Their best bet is to pick up a new set of downs on the ground, and that makes them one dimensional.
Of course, LA played their second game without star receiver Puka Nacua. It’s uncertain whether Nacua will return in Week 3. He’s battling a unique injury that could threaten his longer term health if not properly managed.
We will continue to check in on these metrics for Stafford and the Rams in the season’s early going. The offense hasn’t been good enough through two weeks in order to offset the loss of Myles Garrett and a slower start on defense.
Can Stafford and the Rams rise to the occasion to keep pace with the Broncos, Eagles, and Bills in the coming weeks?
