As the All-Star confetti settles, the Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in a place that feels… familiar.
The sixth seed.
If you’re a Wolves fan, that number probably triggers two completely different emotions at once. On one hand, last year’s sixth seed turned into a Western Conference Finals run. On the other, that path was sprinkled with just enough good fortune that you’d be lying if you said you’d want to try that roulette spin again.
Let’s revisit it.
Last season, the Wolves slid into the six
spot and drew the three-seeded Lakers. That Lakers team had the star wattage with LeBron James and Luka Doncic at the top, but underneath? Tissue paper. Minnesota’s depth swallowed them whole in five games. Then the basketball gods handed the Wolves another break: the seventh-seeded Warriors upset Houston, giving Minnesota home court in the second round. And just when things started getting interesting, Steph Curry’s hamstring tapped out in Game 1 and never came back.
That’s how you punch your ticket to the Western Conference Finals.
And then Oklahoma City reminded everyone what the top of the mountain actually feels like. The Thunder didn’t just beat the Wolves. They took their lunch money and asked if they wanted a receipt.
So yes, the sixth seed “worked” last year. But if you’re serious about winning the West, actually winning it, you don’t sit around waiting for dominoes to fall in your favor. Especially not if you’re the Timberwolves, a franchise that historically hasn’t exactly been the league’s lucky charm.
This team should be looking more like the 2023-24 version, the one that flirted with the one seed all season and ended up grabbing the three. That positioning mattered. It gave them the Suns in Round 1, a matchup they handled with authority. It set up that heavyweight, seven-game slugfest with Nikola Jokic and Denver. It gave them control over their path. That’s the blueprint.
And here’s the good news: the three seed isn’t some fantasy. It’s 1.5 games away.
That’s it.
The Western Conference isn’t going to open a red carpet for Minnesota no matter which seed they grab. There’s no easy road. But the remaining schedule? It’s manageable. The Wolves have already fought most of their heavy battles. They’ve got one game left against OKC. One against Denver (the same Denver that’s beaten them three times, which should be circled in Sharpie). Two more with Houston, who suddenly look less like a juggernaut and more like a team dealing with internal chaos. Then single matchups with the Lakers and Suns, who the Wolves should take seriously after dropping their two previous games to both teams. Out East? Two games against the conference-leading Pistons and one against the Celtics.
That’s nine tough games out of the final 26.
Let’s be conservative. If you penciled those nine in as losses, which, by the way, you absolutely shouldn’t, that still leaves the possibility of going 17–9 down the stretch. That might be enough for the three seed on its own. If they split those marquee matchups instead of folding, suddenly you’re talking about a team with real momentum and real positioning leverage.
Because make no mistake: this isn’t about aesthetics. It’s about math. The three seed means home court in Round 1. It potentially means an inexperienced Spurs team in Round 2. It likely keeps you on the opposite side of the bracket from OKC and Denver until the Conference Finals.
There is no easy path out West. But there is a smarter path. And right now, the only thing standing between Minnesota and that path is… Minnesota.
We’ve seen the two versions of this team all year. The locked-in Wolves who swarmed OKC and looked like a championship-caliber machine. And the other Wolves, the ones who sleepwalk through first halves, play optional defense, settle for isolation hero ball, and try to flip the switch with six minutes left.
The maddening fourth-quarter meltdowns. The porous perimeter defense. The lazy closeouts. The careless turnovers that turn into transition layups the other way. The “we’ll turn it on when we have to” mentality that sometimes works and sometimes explodes in their faces.
That’s the real opponent.
The roster is more complete now. Ayo Dosunmu shores up the backcourt in a way the Wolves desperately needed. The core that’s gone to back-to-back Conference Finals is intact. Anthony Edwards is ascending into the league’s upper echelon. Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels. This is a team with legitimate depth and versatility.
There is no excuse.
Short of Nikola Jokic personally morphing into a basketball Thanos and snapping half of his opponents out of existence, there’s no reason Minnesota shouldn’t finish at least third. The schedule is favorable. The talent is there. The blueprint exists.
This is about character now.
It’s about whether they’re content being the fun team that can beat anybody on a Tuesday but can’t string together professional, focused basketball for two straight weeks. Or whether they want to be the team that squeezes every ounce of equity out of February and March so April becomes about execution, not survival.
At times this season, it’s felt like the Wolves have been waiting for the playoffs to start before taking things seriously. Like the regular season is some long pregame warmup. That’s a dangerous game in this conference. Two months from now, they’ll be lacing up for Game 1 of a playoff series. The tone for that series, and potentially the entire run, will be set by what happens over these final 26 games.
The three seed is sitting there. It’s not theoretical. It’s not some 10-game miracle streak away. It’s right in front of them. The only question is whether they want it badly enough to go grab it. Because if they don’t, and they end up fourth, fifth, or worse, they won’t be able to blame bad luck. They won’t be able to blame the bracket. They’ll only have to look in the mirror.
It’s time to lace up the work boots. Time to stop playing with their food. Time to treat every sleepy Tuesday in March like it matters.
Because it does.
The three seed isn’t going to chase Minnesota.
Minnesota has to chase it.
