UNC’s defense hopes to take big steps forward this season, despite the turnover. Last season saw seven starters depart, six by graduation and one by transfer. Four more players with significant roles also transferred. Back to front, that’s four starting defensive backs, both starting linebackers plus the first guy off the bench. and a starting defensive lineman plus three of the first fours guys off the bench.
That’s half the two deep moving on from a defense that flashed in a couple of games but
fell apart in several others. After reviewing defensive position groups for this upcoming season, both departing personnel and the players who need to step into those shoes, how might these returning players and new additions help address last season’s biggest weakness?
Before turning to solutions, let’s take a moment to identify the main problem. That discussion starts with UNC’s performance on a down by down basis. Spoiler: UNC’s defense gave itself a lot of chances to get off the field, but it was one of the worst in college football in cashing in those chances.
UNC on first downs allowed 5.28 yards per play, which, without adjusting for opponent strength, was good for 38th in the country. Still, on average, UNC opponents faced a 2nd and five, which would be “ahead of the chains.” That leaves teams three downs to get five yards.
UNC on second downs allowed 4.27 yards per play, which ranked 6th nationally. Even against a weak set of offenses*, that’s excellent. Still, on average, UNC opponents faced a 3rd and 1. That’s two downs to get one yard.
That would seem to suggest UNC faced a lot of third downs last season, and it did. Opposing offenses ran 170 third down plays against UNC; only two other ACC teams (Stanford and FSU) and five other P4 teams faced more during the regular season. All of them posted losing records except for Kansas State, who finished 6-6, and Notre Dame, who finished 10-2.
Still, it’s ok to face a ton of third downs if you win enough of them. Notre Dame finished 35th nationally in stuffing 3rd downs. UNC, unfortunately, finished 104th.
Why was UNC so bad at getting off the field?
Start with third and short (and then fourth and short). On third downs facing three yards or less, UNC’s rush defense allowed opponents to convert 78% of the time, which ranked 127th nationally. On top of that failure rate, opponents who did come up short on third down usually tried again on fourth, where they enjoyed even more success. UNC faced 21 fourth down rushing attempts, which was 5th-most in the country, and allowed 16 first downs and one touchdown, which ranked 134th (out of 136) in the country.
Nowhere was that more evident than the Duke and NC State games, two teams with bad defenses but good offenses. The two of them combined to go 9 for 10 on 4th downs, which accomplished two goals. First, that success rate dramatically improved their scoring efficiency, logging 10 touchdowns and a field goal on 15 total possessions (not including end of half kneel-downs). Second, and more importantly, it created a massive time of possession advantage for those two teams, keeping their defenses off the field. Nine new sets of downs equals 36 more plays to work with. With a 40 second play clock for most plays, that’s as much as 24 minutes of extra possession time for the opponent. In reality, State and Duke held the ball 18 more minutes than UNC across those two games.
Say what you will about the offense, but UNC’s offense by that point had finally decided to feature Jordan Shipp and to stop asking Gio to make more than one or two reads. In those two games, those adjustments resulted in 5.9 yards per play and zero turnovers when UNC and Lopez had the ball. Not great, or even good, but serviceable. Both Duke and State clearly wrote into their game plans “use four downs whenever possible, because UNC can’t stop people on 3rd or 4th and short.” It worked spectacularly for them.
Things weren’t much better for the pass defense on third and fourth down in passing situations. The position group review for defensive backs covers this in more detail, so, in summary, just know that on clear passing situations (3rd and four or more), the pass defense finished 66th in allowing third downs via the pass. On 4th down attempts, the pass defense ranked 99th.
Add to all that UNC finishing 106th in first downs allowed via penalty. All told, UNC finished 83rd in opponent first downs per game by rush, pass, or penalty, and that’s not an opponent or pace adjusted stat. UNC faced some of the nation’s worst offenses last season, on top of slowing games down as much as possible, yet somehow the defense still ended up one of the worst P4 units in allowing first downs.
How does UNC get better at getting off the field?
Here’s where an analysis like this runs into the danger of attempting to tell Bill Belichick how to run a defense. That seems foolish. Instead, let’s look at the personnel UNC has for 2026 and try to surmise how Bill and Steve Belichick might try to approach the problem.
Run Defense, short yardage, defensive tackle: UNC retained its two primary defensive tackles, Isaiah Johnson and Leroy Jackson. However, most programs try to rotate as many as six guys at those two tackle spots over the course of the season, and the depth here remains unproven after CJ Mims (Texas AM) and D’Antre Robinson (Oregon) transferred. That leaves Xavier Lewis, a walk-on freshman last season who played situationally (mostly on passing downs), several developmental players who didn’t see the field last season, and the incoming freshmen recruits. Johnson and Jackson should be fine, but that assumes the reserves can hold their own and keep Johnson and Jackson from wearing down during games or over the course of the season. Can the guys behind Johnson and Jackson make the necessary impact on the line of scrimmage?
Run Defense, short yardage, linebacker: All other things being equal, a Belichick defense wants defensive tackles to absorb blocks and allow linebackers to a clear path to the running back. Last season, the defensive line largely did its job on that front, but UNC’s linebackers, especially Khmori House, ended up being driven backwards by the likes of Anderson Castle (5’11”, 220) or Will Wilson (6’1”, 230). To solve that problem, UNC recruited via the portal Peyton Seelman from FCS Richmond and Derek McDonald from Syracuse.
Seelman’s strengths seem to be anticipation and hustle, a guy who’s always in the right position. The only potential downside would be the tape, which tends to show Seelman absorbing contact more often than delivering a blow. McDonald, a 6th year guy at 6’4”, 240, has both the experience to make the right reads and the mass to stop running backs in their tracks. The trick for McDonald will be staying healthy after missing most of last season with an injury. It should also be noted that McDonald gets credit for 97 tackles across 41 games in his career, while Andrew Simpson, the player’s he’s replacing, had 62 last season alone. Can these two guys stop runners in their tracks and keep them from moving chains better than last year’s duo?
Pass defense, 3rd and 4 or more: Last season, UNC was 96th in passes defended and in a 12-way tie at 105th in interceptions. Long story short, UNC’s coverage guys didn’t make many plays on the ball but were more proficient at getting guys on the ground after the catch. Again: this was a defense that got to face five QBs with lower ratings than Gio Lopez and didn’t face a top 25 offense (per F+) all season. That was with four seniors at corner and safety, two of which got invitations to NFL camps. This year’s schedule gets much tougher, and the defensive backs get much younger.
Part of the equation here moves back up front, where UNC badly needs either Jaylen Harvey, transfer from Penn State, or Donovan Hoilette, transfer from Richmond, to provide pressure off the edge opposite Melkart Abou Jaoude. After MAJ’s breakout against Virginia and Stanford last season, teams tended to slide protection towards him, and no one on UNC’s roster seemed capable of making teams pay for that. Forcing opposing QBs to make quicker decisions would go a long way towards helping the defensive backs.
Behind that pass rush, UNC will need Jaiden Patterson and whoever starts opposite him at the other corner to play tighter coverage than two guys who got invited to try out for the NFL – without drawing penalties, it must be noted. The safeties will have to be better than last year’s solid starters, Will Hardy and Gavin Gibson. Kaleb Cost and Ade Willie will have to hold up at nickel when teams try to isolate them against burners.
If all that coming together sounds like a tall order, it is. It can be done, but just as the offense has so many questions marks, UNC defensive coaches will need to find a way to stitch all these guys together into a sum exceeding the total of their parts. If UNC’s defense can take a big step forward in getting off the field and giving the ball back to the offense, the prospects for a successful season take a big step forward as well.
* The easiest collection of offenses UNC’s faced since at least 2007, per FEI, which is far back as that data goes. More context: five of the 12 QBs UNC faced last season finished with lower QBRs than Gio Lopez.
