It’s our first ranking following the trade deadline where the San Francisco Giants unloaded two key relievers. On the one hand, it sort of worked out. Somehow, the bullpen improved. Their 4.09 ERA in July (15th in MLB) dropped to 3.69 (10th) and they gained +0.2 fWAR in value; but, the month ended with the loss of Randy Rodriguez, so, was it really a good month?
On the whole… sure, why not? The Giants climbed back into the Wild Card race in part because they went 14-14, a rare winning month since
2016, and we have to admit that this reconfigured bullpen had something to do with it. Given that his arm troubles led to a terrible month (6.35 ERA / 6.32 FIP in 5.1 IP, -0.68 Win Probability Added), I’m omitting Randy Rodríguez from the power rankings for the rest of the season. Hopefully, he’ll read some good books during his recovery and rehab and we can start thinking about him in the Giants bullpen sometime into 2027. Farewell, Randy, and get well soon!
10. Carson Seymour | July: 7th | August stats: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, -0.34 WPA
Seymour entered August having allowed 4 home runs in just 9 MLB innings. By August 15th, that tally had swelled to 6 home runs in 16 innings. He had a 4.50 ERA but a 7.64 FIP. But then, he allowed just 1 run (not a homer) in his next three appearances (5.2 IP) and suddenly, I think the Giants thought they had another arm, to the point that he got a spot start last Saturday against the Orioles. He gave up 2 home runs in 3 innings and has allowed 8 in 24.2 IP this season. That’s… uh… concerning. But, to be clear, that 32% HR/FB rate is not the worst in MLB. Atlanta’s Austin Cox is #1 with a 33.3% HR/FB rate (9 in 21.1 IP). And that’s with one of the lower flyball rates on batted balls (32.1% – in the top 1/3 of MLB — minimum 20 IP).
He’s not hitting corners with any of his pitches. A lotta meatballs. Hard to trust him at this point. The good news with relievers is that this can all turn on a dime. His 50% groundball rate thanks to his 96+ mph sinker is a solid starting point. He needs to work on his breaking pitches, though, as the low spin slider (2,069 rpm) doesn’t fit the typical profile of a successful pitcher. So, he’s got some work to do, especially in the area of trust.
9. Tristan Beck | July: 8th | August stats: 16.2 IP, 6.48 ERA, -0.14 WPA
I am a Beck Booster in that I am rooting very hard for him to emerge as the go-to swingman / multi-inning reliever in the bullpen. He definitely has some competition with Keaton Winn’s return and he’s looked a little shaky overall since being called up in July… BUT! In August, he pumped up his strikeout rate a bit — 22.2% isn’t great, but compared to 17.6% on the season it’s a marked improvement — and squashed his walk rate — 5.6% against 72 batters faced compared to 7.6% on the season.
Now, admittedly, he had two blowups in the month. His first appearance against the Mets in New York came when they were down 7-3. He entered in the 7th and they lost 12-6. His last appearance of the month came against the Orioles in that embarrassing 11-1 loss in game two of the series. He entered in the 4th with the team down 4-1 and would allow 4 runs over the next 3.2 IP. So, he hasn’t really settled into my hoped-for role, but he has been solid enough, lowering his FIP to 3.97 despite all those runs allowed (a reminder that FIP is basically a tracker of the three true outcomes: walks, home runs, and strikeouts).
8. Spencer Bivens | July: 9th | August stats: 16 IP 3.38 ERA, -0.07 WPA
Bivens doesn’t dazzle and he isn’t a go-to arm when the game is on the line, but what he does do is soak up innings when a game is out of reach. On the other hand, he had a really nice bounceback month after a disappointing July, and in the two leverage spots he had for the month, he succeeded (even though both wound up being losses): he got an 8th inning hold in Pittsburgh; and, despite walking in a run, managed to strand two other runners on base in San Diego.
It’s the up and down journey of a reliever in any given season, but he’s at least earned enough trust to no longer be considered the worst option in the bullpen.
7. Christian Koss | July: n/a | August stats: 3 IP 0.00 ERA +0.00 WPA
Well, look, my belief is that a position player qualifies for this list upon their second relief appearance, and here we see Christian Koss added three to the one he already had under his belt from April. A funny aside: the Giants were outscored 30-2 in the combined scores of the games in which he appearaed. No strikeouts and 3 hits allowed, but he didn’t make matters worse. That’s one trustworthy position player who can pitch!
6. Keaton Winn| July: 4th | August stats: 10.2 IP 6.75 ERA +0.04 WPA
Just three appearances, but Winn has worked hard to come back from arm troubles and 5 strikeouts against just 1 walk in 4 IP is a very cool sign of things to come — if he can stay healthy. He logged one multi-inning appearance in the month and kicked off September with another: a scoreless appearance in Colorado. I’m putting him a bit high on this list despite the small sample size because Winn is easy to hype.
5. Joey Lucchesi | July: 4th | August stats: 10.2 IP 6.75 ERA -0.36 WPA
He really pitched his way into the coaching staff’s good graces and they really saw him as a go-to guy. It didn’t quite work out that way in August. On the other hand — though, this is not to imply that he had something to do with it — since the Giants turned things around and got back on the winning track, he’s been dominant. In his final 4 August appearances, he allowed just 4 baserunners out of 16 faced in 4 innings (2 hits, 2 walks). Can his churve help the Giants achieve a winning season?
4. Joel Peguero | July: n/a | August stats: 6 IP, 0.00 ERA, +0.13 WPA
It’s very tough to rank a player with scant innings very high on a trust ranking, and this is especially high for a journeyman minor leaguer finally getting his shot at the big leagues. But that’s the state of this Giants bullpen in transition. With a one-month sample and just one month left in the season, we’re playing fast and loose with the concept of “trust.”
That said, watching a guy throw 100+ mph fastballs is a fast way to earn trust in the big leagues.
And I declare that having a sharp breaking ball to pair with that velocity makes you extremely dangerous and very trustworthy in a small sample.
3. Matt Gage | July: 6th| August stats: 12.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, -0.41 WPA
Too high of a ranking, given the level of trust Bob Melvin has placed in him? I think so. In 13 appearances, he appeared in 4 high-pressure situations (based on Baseball Reference’s average Leverage Index) and in 3 of them he wound up giving up hits or runs. He had a very solid month overall — a 2.51 FIP to go with that ERA — but he hasn’t pitched his way into revered status. The Giants might not have a replacement for Erik Miller here. This is almost certainly too high a spot on the month, but Gage has been a solid contributor since the Giants picked him up, and if he’s used in lower leverage situations, he plays as quite trustworthy.
2. José Buttó | July: n/a | August stats: 11.1 IP 2.38 ERA +0.23 WPA
It would appear the Giants are simply asking Butto to throw his slider more. Since joining the team, he’s upped it to 38.9% and his four-seamer is second at 36.8%. With the Mets, his arsenal was more balance: 29% 4-seam, 27.3% slider, 19% sinker, 16% changeup, 8.7% sweeper.
The tweak has worked out great. Butto has moved himself into the transitioning bullpen’s inner circle. Hopefully, his inherent Metsiness doesn’t spillover into the Giants’ efforts to have a great September.
1. Ryan Walker | July: 5th | August stats: 9.2 IP 0.93 ERA +0.71 WPA
You’d like to imagine that “Ryan Walker will return to his dominant closer role” was all part of the plan to purge the bullpen at the trade deadline, but this was by no means a guarantee of coming to fruition. For the moment, Ryan Walker is back, and the Giants have a strong chance of securing a win because of him.
Is the bullpen actually good? Maybe!
