Everything is bad! Maybe a (long overdue) change at offensive coordinator will help a little, but the dead cat bounce at quarterback lasted exactly two quarters. Now even that switch seems up in the air, as the Michigan Wolverines try to somehow get to bowl eligibility, which actually is far from guaranteed with three tough games remaining.
First among those is a date with the Oregon Ducks, who shockingly already have three losses — and a lost quarterback — yet are somehow back in the playoff hunt.
Like Kyle Whittingham, Dan Lanning has also made a change at coordinator, and back-to-back ranked wins have the Ducks well positioned for a 9-3 finish with a real shot at the CFP, and even the (final!) Big Ten Championship Game.
Vibes are pretty lopsided heading into Saturday, and this would not be the first time Michigan has faced Oregon after a humiliating defeat. That 2007 contest did not go super well, and the 2026 edition is likely to repeat history, but at this point who knows anything. Frustration has turned to apathy in Ann Arbor, so this weekend really only has upside…right?
Michigan (5-4, 2-4) at No. 16 Oregon (6-3, 4-2)
Date & Time: Saturday, Nov. 14, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
TV/Streaming: FS1
These teams have met once already as conference foes, with the then-No. 1 Ducks earning the win at the Big House over a 5-3 Michigan team that looked pretty rough under Sherrone Moore and Wink Martindale. Davis Warren only threw for 165 yards that game but posted 7.2 YPA and two touchdowns. At best, this program is no better off than it was 24 months ago, and arguably is in worse shape now.
Offense: Deck chairs
Week after week this offense finds new ways to disappoint, but last Saturday really felt like rock bottom. There were no redeeming qualities from the debacle against State, aside from finally breaking the camel’s back, and while the removal of Jason Beck likely helps, how much it will actually improve the No. 126-ranked scoring offense is up for debate.
The Ducks are middle of the pack in points per game and yards per game, and are equally effective against the run and pass. Losing edge Teitum Tuioti is a tough blow, but this defense should still be ok against Michigan without him. Objectively, Oregon’s defense has taken a step back this season, but it might be hitting its stride at the right time.
If the Wolverines struggle to move the ball, it is quite possible Bryce Underwood gets some snaps. To the surprise of no one, the lights have been too bright for Tommy Carr, and the downside of Underwood is no worse than his successor’s. The lingering reason for hope is the run game, as Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter are far too good to be putting up such awful numbers. Beck is gone, and hopefully is the rhino; better play calling is a must.
Defense: Do your job
Whittingham’s only pathway for the rest of the season is turning every game into the 2024 Ohio State win that sees the defense do enough to pull off the low-scoring upset. Even with some annoying moments last weekend, this unit is capable of doing just that. The pressure is immense knowing how much burden it must carry for the offense, but SP+ still considers this a top-three defense.
Oregon replaced an injured Dante Moore with Dylan Raiola, who has been pretty solid thus far with 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions and a 65-percent completion rate on 7.3 YPA. He lit up Northwestern and did well against Ohio State, getting the ball to stud receiver Dakorien Moore. The Ducks are definitely a tricky offense to go against, especially when they feel confident in the passing game.
However, the run game has been much less impressive, in part due to a bad offensive line. Jay Hill will have a chance to overwhelm up front and make Raiola uncomfortable, trusting the secondary to lock up receivers long enough to stall out drives. One thing to watch is fumbles, as Oregon has the second-most losses (10) in the country this season, though that is skewed by the bizarre afternoon against UCLA.
idk
Michigan needs one more win. Before the season started, this weekend was arguably the most obvious loss, then Oregon started looking bad and there was a glimmer of optimism, but since then the teams have gone in opposite directions. With red-hot UCLA up next, is the best chance for victory somehow in Columbus? What even is this season.
I do not expect the Wolverines to win on Saturday, even with Beck gone and Underwood potentially back in. That is unfortunate, as this Oregon team is seemingly as vulnerable as it ever will be, and the Michigan defense has a chance to play fairly evenly on that side of the ball. The same cannot be said for the ground attack, though, which will not take advantage of the Ducks’ front seven like Oklahoma State and Northwestern did.
That leaves us in a weird place where I do not think a blowout is the most likely outcome, but neither is an upset. Oregon has done enough to save its season, while Whittingham has essentially done the opposite, more likely to lose his job after every week. Even a minor resurgence on offense could be enough for a favorable result, but that would be a pretty big surprise.
