The college football season is ripping by us. Teams are starting to have their bye weeks, and our overall feel for the class is beginning to shift and take shape. This week, I’ll update our quarterback
tiers and share some updated season stat totals for our field of signal callers.
But first…
Riser of the Week
Dante Moore
The result: Oregon 30 — Penn State 24
Game stats: 29-39 (74.4%), 248 yards, 3 TDs, 3 Big Time Throws, 1 Turnover Worthy Plays, 5.9 ADoT, 0 sacks
10 rushes, 35 yards, 3.5 ypc, 1 fumble
Season stats: 100-134 (74.6%), 1,210 yards, 14 TDs, 1 Int, 10 BTT, 2 TWP, 8.6 ADoT, 1 sack
23 rushes, 131 yards, 5.7 YPC, 0 TD, 1 fumble
The floodgates have officially opened for the Dante Moore QB1 discussions. There was no bigger game last weekend in terms of Top-10 opponents squaring off, an insane crowd environment during a Penn State “white out” game, and potential first-round quarterbacks. This summer, when all we had to work off of was a handful of ugly games with UCLA, one of our biggest questions about Moore was how he would handle pressure. Early in the season, he hasn’t faced a ton of it, facing pressure on only 21.3% of his dropbacks, and only one sack on the season. Oregon looked like the better team for most of the night against Penn State, but some wonky outcomes — a missed field goal, a false start on a fourth and short, a scramble at the sticks on fourth down coming up just short — allowed the Nittany Lions to stick around and force overtime.
So how did Moore respond with a hostile home crowd going nuts and a free rusher in his face during double overtime?
Chills.
I will note that Moore did follow this up with an interception on the two-point conversion that doesn’t show up in his box score, but it’s hard to come away from his performance as anything other than impressed. Penn State’s defense was focused on keeping the lid on Oregon’s passing game for most of the night, and Moore took what the defense gave him.
Moore’s mobility was also on full display in this game. He had nearly as many rushing attempts (10) against Penn State as he did in his previous games (13), and while Moore isn’t the type of quarterback that will generate many explosive runs, he turned a handful of short scrambles on high-leverage downs into first downs. In other instances, he used it to buy time and create opportunities to move the ball downfield.
Here was my other favorite throw on the night.
I’ve already heard chatter this week on podcasts and across social media that not only is Moore getting consideration as the best quarterback in college football, but he’s entering the QB1 conversation for the draft. I’ll pump the brakes on that a bit, as this is Moore’s first year as a starter, and analysts like Todd McShay have gone on record saying sources with Moore’s camp entered this season with the intention to go back to school next fall. But if Oregon continues to play this well and some of the other hopefuls in this class falter, it isn’t too crazy to believe the temptation to declare might grow.
Not bad for a guy who received the fewest votes (4) in our summer QB Dating Game series.
I’ll wrap this week’s riser section up with these videos of Moore after the game. For all the poise and cold-bloodedness he showed on the field against Penn State, after the game it was clear how much this all means to him, and how much his teammates and staff want to win for this kid.
Updated Tiers
We’re roughly a third of the way through the season, which feels like as good a time as any to update our quarterback tiers. Let’s start with a look at the season totals for our field of quarterback contenders.
Stats alone are not enough to tell the whole story, of course, but they are a piece of the puzzle and they can help contextualize some of the narratives surrounding these passers. We’ll dive further with our new updated tiers below.
Day 1 Tier
- LaNorris Sellers
- John Mateer
- Dante Moore
- Fernando Mendoza
- Garrett Nussmeier
Oh, how things have changed since this summer. Of our final five finalists from the QB Dating Game series, I’m only convinced that two of them are still flirting with the first round of the 2026 draft.
LaNorris Sellers tops this list, mainly because he has the physical tools that I have a hard time seeing NFL teams pass up. South Carolina as a whole isn’t as good as they were in 2024, and Sellers seems like even more of a one-man show than he did a year ago. There’s no such thing as a draft prospect without flaws, but we’ve seen Caleb Williams get drafted first overall after a down year at USC, and Cam Ward went 1.01 despite questions about his game translating to the NFL. Sellers’ big arm, sack-breaking ability, and powerful running style sure look the part of a quarterback that NFL teams would vault up their boards. While I personally would like Sellers to get one more year of college experience, declaring for the draft might be too tempting in a class that doesn’t have a clear frontrunner ahead of him.
I’ve previously compared Mateer’s playstyle to the backyard stylings of Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Patrick Mahomes. Each of those men were first-round selections, and Mayfield and Murray went first overall. If Mateer can return in a few weeks from hand surgery and pick up where he left off, he can stamp his ticket for Day 1 of the draft.
Nussmeier has fallen a bit from where he started the season, but he still has some impressive throws on his tape. LSU’s defense is national championship caliber, so if the Tigers can rebound from their loss to Ole Miss, he should have plenty of big game moments to bolster his resume. Having a father who’s the offensive coordinator for a quarterback-needy team, in the same state to boot, certainly doesn’t hurt either.
We’ve already touched on Moore a bit. He likely would be a first-rounder if the draft were today, but it remains to be seen if he’ll return to school or come out, and there are a lot of challenging games left for him to navigate.
Mendoza is another trendy name that’s been steadily building buzz. Indiana’s offense struggled to put up points against Iowa this past weekend, but managed to come away with the win. Mendoza has a live arm and enough mobility to create behind the line of scrimmage. Indiana has increased his RPO usage and other one-read concepts, so it’ll be tough to answer how well he processes the whole field come draft season. Be that as it may, if he plays to the level he has so far and makes a playoff appearance, I think his first-round status will be assured.
Risers Tier
- Jayden Maiava
- Carson Beck
- Ty Simpson
- Josh Hoover
I wrote about Maiava last week, and he lost a heartbreaker to Illinois, 34-32. If his running back doesn’t fumble on the first drive of the game as the Trojans were approaching the red zone, USC likely wins the game. Alas, that was not the case, and Maiava also threw his first interception of the season. Early in the third quarter, Maiava failed to notice an Illini linebacker ready to undercut an in-breaking route at the sticks and turned it over. I dont’ think Maiava has reached first-round discussion just yet, but I think he still has the opportunity to get there.
I’m not the biggest believer in Carson Beck, but considering his draft prospects were essentially in the mud following last season, this tier makes the most sense for him. Beck is a streaky passer, but he’s led Miami to a 4-0 start and has looked more decisive with the ball so far this season. A big rivalry game against No. 18 Florida State is on tap for him this weekend. Ultimately, I think when Beck is at his best, he’s a classic Round 2 quarterback talent. If Miami makes a deep run and Beck looks good during it, he could sneak his way into the back half of the first round.
Simpson and Hoover are interesting redshirt juniors that I need to see more of.
Simpson has been with Alabama since 2022 and had to bide his time behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe. Alabama seemed dead in the water after an opening loss to Florida State, where the effort of some of the Tide’s players was brought into question. The Crimson Tide has come back with a vengeance since — plus Florida State has proven better than was believed at the time — and a lot of that has to do with Simpson’s play, who has yet to turn the ball over.
Hoover is in his third year as a starter and is pacing for several career highs, but is coming off his worst game of the year in a 27-24 loss to Arizona State that saw him throw two interceptions. He’s a bit undersized, and I think he’s a guy that still needs to see his receiver get open more than a guy who anticipates it. That said, I also think he’s trending towards a Day 2 pick on the high end of his range of outcomes, and he’s ripped some NFL throws into tight windows this year.
Just Needs One Team To Fall In Love Tier
- Taylen Green
- Sawyer Robertson
- Joey Aguilar
Green has gotten better each year, but he still makes too many risky throws. His coach was just fired in-season, which is never a good omen for a prospect’s draft stock, but there is no denying Green is one of the most dangerous runners in college football. I just don’t see enough polish to warrant a Day 1 passer, but I could see him being a Day 3 pick for a team that wants to see if they can get lucky and develop him.
Robertson continues to put up big yardage and touchdown numbers in Baylor’s Air Raid system, but I’m not sure I see anything beyond a spot starter at the NFL level for him. He’s too inconsistent with his accuracy and can look robotic at times to my eye. That said, some team will want to take a chance with the production and his 6’4 and 220-pound frame.
As for Aguilar, he’s an interesting story. After spending some time in the junior college ranks, he cut his teeth at Appalachian State before becoming the other half of the Tennessee-UCLA transfer saga. He’d committed to UCLA, but when they brought in Nico Iamaleava, Aguilar audibiled and went to Tennessee, where he now leads the SEC in passing. He’s got a good frame and some impressive throws on his tape, but he’s also gotten away with some throws that felt reminiscent to Will Levis. I think he’s got some intriguing traits, but I would be shocked to see him in the first round at this point.
Go Back to School Tier
- Arch Manning
- Aidan Chiles
- Sam Leavitt
Of these three, I’m most excited for Chiles. He’s looking more decisive as a passer and runner this year, but he’s still taking too many sacks, and he needs to clean up the fumbles. I would be surprised to seem him declare this year, frankly, but I think he’s trending positively for the 2027 draft.
Manning will have plenty of opportunities to shake off the early struggles that have seen him take a hit to his draft stock. Over the summer, I preached patience with Manning, and all of that still applies. He’s still in one of the better situations for a developing quarterback, and while I think he definitely needs to go back to school, I’m not ready to write him off after just a handful of starts. I always thought the expectations that he’d immediately be the best quarterback in college football were unfair and unrealistic.
Leavitt I’ve soured quite a bit on. Arizona State’s run last season was magical, and I think Leavitt still has some intriguing traits. But he doesn’t look like a player who’s grown this season and is still more impressive as a runner than he is as a passer.
Look Away Tier
- Cade Klubnik
- Drew Allar
- Nico Iamaleava
I’m not looking bury any of these guys, but the vibes around all three are the worst they could be at the moment. Klubnik looks like he’s pressing and Clemson is one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far. He’s going to have a hard time getting back into first-round discussions.
Iamaleava and the Bruins look like one of the worst teams in the sport, and have yet to win a game.
Allar has also failed to show any growth in his game. He struggles to anticipate throws to playmakers running away from him, and his athletic limitations show themselves against the schools that have a collection of athletic talent that rivals or exceeds Penn State’s roster. That his team consistently limits his role in their game plans should continue to be a big red flag for NFL evaluators.
Bits and bobs
Here are some key matchups to watch this weekend:
- Carson Beck and No. 3 Miami have the game of the week against No. 18 Florida State
- Arch Manning and No. 9 Texas travel to take on Florida
- No. 10 Alabama and Ty Simpson take on No. 16 Vanderbilt and are looking to avenge their 2024 upset loss
- Aidan Chiles and the Spartans take on a feisty Nebraska team
What do you think of these prospects? Have any of them moved up your big board? Let us know in the comments!
