Opening Thoughts
Oh no! We suck again!
Gang you wanna talk about a full on disaster. You get outgained 429-250 by a MAC school, you go 3-and-out 6 times against a MAC school, your supposed juggernaut ground attack gains a whopping 72 yards on a MAC school, you force three second half turnovers but gain -7 yards on the ensuing possessions against a MAC school, and you lose 17-10. To a goddamn MAC school. And on top of that you lose your best and third best offensive skill player for the season. We don’t need to belabor
the fact that it’s really hard to imagine a worse outcome.
However, there’s no time to feel sorry for ourselves. It’s Brawl Week, and Pitt awaits. I encourage everybody to take the pain and anguish of last weekend, mix it with the pain and anguish from our last two times playing these mfs on the road, and let every visitor you see know that they’re going to be in a GD hornets nest from sun up to sun down. Fuck the niceties.
WHEN/WHERE
Date: Saturday, September 13, 2025
Kickoff Time: 3:30PM ET
Location: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia
HOW TO WATCH/LISTEN
Channel: ESPN | DirecTV Channel 206 | Dish Channel 140
Announcers: Mark Jones (PBP), Roddy Jones (analyst) and Quint Kessenich (sideline)
Online Streaming: ESPN with a valid cable subscription
Radio: Mountaineer Sports Network from IMG (Radio Affiliates) | Sirius Channel 137, XM Channel 198 & Streaming Channel 952 | WVU Gameday App (Apple | Android)
Radio Announcers: Tony Caridi (PBP), Dwight Wallace (analyst), Jed Drenning (sideline), Andrew Caridi, and John Antonik (Pre/Postgame Show)
Reminder: It is against site policy to post links to illegal streams in the comments.
DEGENERATION STATION
Spread: Pitt -7.5
Moneyline: WVU +220, Pitt -275
Over/Under: 57.5
Big 12 Pulse Check
A horrendous weekend for the conference, and therefore the world! It’s a bizarre world we live in where that first paragraph can be completely truthful and also not describe the worst performance of the weekend, which in fact belongs to Oklahoma State! ICYMI, the Pokes travelled to Eugene, OR (presumably they knew they were there for a football game) and were down 69-0 through three quarters. Joining Mountaineers and Cowboys in mourning are Kansas State, who lost to Army, Arizona State, who got smoked in Starkville, and Kansas, who blew a double-digit lead to lose to rival Mizzou. Updated power rankings in order of who worries me the most:
- Utah
- Texas Tech
- BYU
- TCU
- Kansas
Everybody else stinks!
Know Thy Enemy
- A villain who needs no introduction. You know who they are, you know where they’re from, you know what they eat. And you are what you eat.
- 2025 Record – 2-0 with a couple of decisive wins against bad teams. They haven’t played anybody but they’ve handled their business.
- HC NardDawg – Again, a familiar face and proper villain. No notes.
- OC Kade Bell – Second year man from Western Carolina. The maiden voyage was great until it wasn’t but I actually kinda dig this guy’s scheme.
- DC Randy Bates – A familiar face with a penchant for turning out a formidable front 7.
When They Have the Ball
Players to Watch
- #10 QB Eli Holstein – He’s been OK this year but has never come close to recapturing his form from the last 5 minutes of last year’s game.
- #0 RB Dez Reid – Dude’s electric, a true triple threat in the run/pass/return game.
- WRs #2 Kenny Johnson, #5 they’re Don’t be fooled by corporate asking you to find the differences; they’re the same picture. Not sure any of them is as good as the Hendricks kid last week, but all of these guys are pretty good.
The Numbers
- 9.8 – Percent of Holstein’s passes that have been deep shots. This is very much a short-to-intermediate rhythm passing game.
- 64 – Percent of Holstein’s passes that go between the hashes.
- 38.2 – Holstein’s been pressured on 26% of his dropbacks, posting a 38.2 pass grade in those situations. We need Alley to dial his ass up something special.
The Gameplan
Pitt’s pass heavy (57%, sawft edge) and are one of the few teams on our schedule who wants to go as fast as we do. We saw last week how that can actually work against your team, but it’s up to us to force those quick 3-and-outs and shift where the pressure is applied.
The Panthers are at their best when the ball is coming out on time to targets on the move. Mesh, high-low, smash, flood, dagger, mills – all the modern pass concepts are in the bag here. And then there’s Dez Reid, who’s excellent with the ball in his hands but is probably just as effective in the pass game. They have lots of options and they get all of them touches, placing a paramount on situational awareness and contextualizing down and distance with formation and alignment to diagnose who the most likely danger man might be on a playly basis. This is not to imply Pitt is without flaw. The offensive line has been shoddy both on the ground and through the air, they haven’t really been able to run the ball consistently outside of a handful of explosives, and Holstein, despite playing poor competition, has again produced a couple of turnovers and more TWPs than big time throws. I really think Alley can get after this offense and make it difficult for them to move the ball.
When We Have It
Players to Watch
- #95 IDL Frances Brewu
- #44 EDGE Jimmy Scott
- #9 LB Kyle Louis
- #3 LB Rasheem Biles
- #15 CB Rashad Battle
The Numbers
- 51 – Pressures generated by the Pitt defense through two games.
- 22 – TFLs for the Panthers, good for 3rd nationally.
- 77 – Percent rush rate of 1st downs for the Old Gold and Blue.
The Gameplan
Let’s get some uncomfortable truths out of the way – Pitt’s front 6 is good, our offensive line is bad, and we’re now without Jaheim White and Jaden Bray. There’s not enough moonshine in the Blue Lot to make the situation seem anything other than bleak.
The question then is what can we do to have success against them. As we discussed last week, the scheme is the scheme, and I suppose we could always block better (Wannstache™️), but considering that Pitt is top 5 nationally in TFLs and havoc running headfirst into that front feels like a losing strategy. So what wrinkles can we install to keep them guessing?
For starters, I think we have to buck trends, and the first that comes to mind is running the ball on early downs. Through two games we’ve run it on 77% of our first downs, and Pitt knows that. Flipping that script and leaning into the short pass game might be a simple way to keep them off balance and us ahead of the chains. The secondary is a relative weakness for them defensively and getting the ball into our receivers’ hands quickly will help mitigate the pass rush and force those perimeter guys to tackle in space. There’s no sense running on first down when they expect it to then just pass on 2nd or 3rd and long when they expect it. We have to mix it up and sustain some drives this weekend, if only to give a defense a break.
Tangential to this is making Cam Vaughn the focal point of the offense. We thought he was a capital D Dude before the season and through two games he’s done nothing but validate that – guy’s a stud. Pitt will obviously be aware of him so we’ll need to get creative, but we have to give him the platform to shine this weekend. Isolate him in the quick game, put him the slot, give him chances down the field, everything.
Finally, I think there’s a need to take a good hard look in the mirror and ask ourselves what we want from our quarterback(s). If we lean into the strategy outlined above then Nicco is probably the best option. However, if we’re going to insist on running him/them, then I think we need to either A) scrap some of the East/West stuff or B) give more run to Hendo/Brown/Scotty. Nicco is just not quick enough to stretch plays and make something out of nothing. He is, however, in possession of a big ol’ keister, and has proven effective as a runner when we get him downhill. So in the QB run game, we either need to be more North/South or try somebody else.
X-Factor
3rd down % – On both sides of the ball. Offensively, we have to sustain drives to give our defense a breather. Points would be good, too. On the other side of the ball Pitt goes as fast as we do, which makes getting off the field on 3rd down even more critical. If we get them behind the sticks, we have to pay it off and flip the script on them the way Ohio did to us. Winning 3rd downs will go a long way towards winning this game.
Prediction
For the first time since the series revival, I think it’s fair and balanced™️ to say that Pitt is probably better than us. They’ve handled business against lower competition, we haven’t, simple as.
However, this admission is not the same as saying they’re good or unbeatable. The offense has good players and is effective through the air, but the deficiencies up front should allow us to stifle the run, pressure Holstein, and force them into bad situations and bad decisions. The defense is very good at what they’re good at (front 6 havoc) but has given up more points than we have and is otherwise statistically comparable to ours while playing worse opponents. There’s absolutely no reason that we can’t play with and beat these guys. We’ve been better than them for three years and have won once; why can’t we repay the favor to them this year? I think the defense gives Holstein fits, the offense finds just enough success to score some points, and the crowd does the rest. As always – EAT SHIT PITT.
West Virginia 13 — Pitt 9
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