The NBA Draft is right around the corner and the Dallas Mavericks will have at least two picks later this month. If you’ve read our first installment of Trade Talk, you know what it is we’re doing, but if not, the approach is simple. I curate a few trades from the variety of options we consider as a staff at Mavs Moneyball, then we bring them to our readers to join us in the debate.
Our current scenario is a big swing that MMB’s Bryan Porter put forth, where the Mavs take on a great player along with
his massive contract and injury history, but replenish the cupboard in one fell swoop.
The trade proposal
The Mavericks send out P.J. Washington, Klay Thompson and Daniel Gafford in return for Joel Embiid, the 76ers 2026 first round pick (#22), 2028 first round pick (by way of the Los Angeles Clippers) and 2029 first round pick (top eight protected).
The discussion
Mike: Hoo-weee! You might give readers Anthony Davis PTSD with this trade proposal, given Embiid’s injury history. Amazingly, Ebiid is averages 32 games played per season over the past three years, which is about as many games as Davis accumulated in a Mavs’ uniform, so there is that.
While the notion of Embiid might initially be a head-turner, there’s actually quite a lot of value in this proposal. This is a single-shot move that replenishes the absolute dearth of Mavs’ picks over the next few years. Is that the crux of this proposal to you, or do you see Embiid as a value-add to the team?
Bryan: If the Davis trade came with this many picks, there might not have been caskets in front of the AAC. The picks are the point and restocking our barren asset chest is the crux of the deal as you said. However, over his last 25 games this season (including the seven playoff games he played against Boston and New York combined) Embiid averaged 28 points, eight rebounds and five assists per game on 53% shooting inside the arc, 37% from deep and 85% at the line with a 49.4% FTr. He averaged 33 minutes per game in that span too, so once he’s ramped up for a season, as long as you can keep him upright he can still give you dominant stretches of play depending on when you need them. Given we wouldn’t need him for more then 28 minutes per game if that, I’d like our chances of keeping him upright for 40 games and a playoff run.
Mike: Yeah, hard to argue that he’s not immediately the best center in Mavericks history (with all due respect to past centers, particularly Tyson Chandler). Just an absolutely dominant force even when he’s at 85% health. Had he played more to this point in his career, he’d be talked about as one of the most dominant big men in history. Unfortunately, in 12 seasons, he has yet to log 500 regular season games! Let that sink in for a minute. Maybe in some weird way that is just what the team needs? If Dallas is all-in for the future, his inconsistent availability may help future draft standing with those newly acquired picks. When he does play, he surely helps take pressure off Cooper Flagg.
Pivoting to the outbound players, Gafford is replaced by Embiid (and hopefully Dereck Lively!), Thompson clearly just doesn’t fit here anymore, and Washington is therefore the biggest loss I would argue. If we keep Naji Marshall, the sting of losing Washington is lessened, and this trade looks better and better. Really, it’s Dallas eating a massive (massive!) contract, but getting picks back in this year’s deep draft as well as future years. My biggest fear is that Embiid’s salary really hampers the team for a couple years though.
Bryan: I agree, that’s why the Sixers would have to shower the Mavericks with picks to entice them to take that salary on. No matter what Embiid has been in the past, giiving up three rotation players for one who likely won’t play 50 games in a season is a difficult ask. Pick #22 in this upcoming draft is fine, not great value but certainly useful. The lightly protected future pick could be something given the wacky, new three-year lottery structure, but the crown jewel would be the unprotected Clippers pick. That’s worth moving Washington for. Gafford isn’t someone to raise a fuss about, especially as his salary gets a bump when his extension kicks in. Klay should want to be on a team closer to contention. Washington will be tough to lose, but the point of the picks is to eventually add cost-controlled replacements for all of these guys and some vets still on the roster (Kyrie, Naji, etc).
Mike: You make a great point about the new wonky draft rules for the next couple of years. I think that’s going to have a major impact on how teams value picks for the next few years and it’s going to be real interesting to see what trades look like. If the protection on the 2029 pick was removed, this deal would be very hard to not at least consider heavily, if not jump at. I think my only hesitation is how much he straps the team’s financial flexibility, but getting draft flexibility in exchange is enticing – picking young cost-controlled guys or trading those picks for a proven player allows Dallas to do a lot more than they can now in terms of draft capital. My jury is still out on this one, but I’m certainly thinking a lot about it. Final word goes to you.
Bryan: The final word is simple: insurance. Before I’d seriously consider this deal, I’m looking through the contract language for any possible games played threshold out I can find and the moment I land on one that shortens this contract by even a year, I’m calling this into the league and letting Embiid know face-to-face that he isn’t finishing in Dallas, but we’ll be happy to have him while he’s here. He’s an all-time player who has given a lot to the game and the growth of it via social media, so I understand the weight of a player like that moving teams for the first time in his career. The least I’d want to do is be honest with him about what this is.
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