Each week, I’ll publish two film-room previews: one focusing on the offense and one on the defense. These are primarily film-based, focusing on the schemes, tendencies, and matchups that could shape Sunday’s game, with all statistics coming from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I also record a video version for Patreon, where I break down the plays in greater detail and where you can further support my work.
I think the Commanders’ defense is a little better than its numbers suggest. The secondary has
some talent, and Daronte Jones can create problems with his pressure packages. However, the lack of a reliable four-man pass rush is killing this defense. For the Eagles, this matchup comes down to whether they can handle the blitz. If they can, there should be opportunities to score.
Pass Defense
The Commanders are allowing around +0.15 EPA per dropback, ranking 26th, but I don’t think that tells the whole story of their secondary. Looking at the individuals, there is more talent here than those results suggest. The problem is getting everyone to play the same coverage correctly while asking them to hold up for too long.
Moving to a new system has brought some predictable communication issues. Some plays each week show defenders with different understandings of how a route should be handled. The red-zone example below looks like Cover 4, but the two sides don’t seem to be operating with the same rules. The underneath defender carries a route on one side, while the cornerback on the other passes a receiver off to nobody.
Those are the opportunities the Eagles need to create and exploit. Motion, changes in formation and route combinations that force defenders to exchange responsibilities should be part of the plan. There are capable coverage players here, but making them communicate and adjust gives you a chance to expose the mistakes. If you just line up and throw isolation routes, I’m not sure the Eagles are good enough to win.
Jones comes from the Brian Flores school of defensive football, and you can see the influence in the disguises and unusual pressure looks. Sometimes it’s fascinating. Sometimes I think they are asking their players to do too much.
The Tampa 2 disguise below is a good example. A cornerback follows the receiver across the formation, suggesting man coverage, before the defense rotates into zone. I like that part! However, Frankie Luvu is lined up over the A gap and then has to become the deep middle defender. That is an enormous amount of ground to cover, especially for someone whose best work comes moving toward the quarterback.
The disguise is supposed to make the quarterback hesitate, but it can also create a difficult assignment for your own defender. The Eagles need to read the movement after the snap and attack the space before that defender can get there. Tanner McKee will have to distinguish the initial picture from the coverage they actually play.
The biggest issue, though, is the pass rush. They simply don’t generate enough pressure with four. The Commanders blitz on 47.4% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league, yet their overall pressure rate is only 34.4%, ranked 18th. That is a lot of extra rushers for a fairly ordinary amount of disruption.
The individual numbers reinforce the film. Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson are the main edge threats, but neither has consistently taken over games by winning his matchup. Daron Payne contributes pressure inside, but this isn’t a front that reliably wrecks the pocket without help. When the initial rush stalls, quarterbacks have time to wait for routes to develop and find the gaps between defenders.
That is why I’m reluctant to blame all the passing production on the secondary. There are coverage mistakes, but there are also snaps when the coverage has done enough, and the quarterback is still standing comfortably in the pocket.
I do think Quan Martin is a weak link when playing deep. His recognition of crossing routes needs to be better, and he can be slow to react and affect the throw. There are opportunities to manipulate his positioning and attack the space around him.
Mike Sainristil has also had a terrible season, but his role has changed. With Trey Amos back, Sainristil played only seven defensive snaps in their last game. The Eagles shouldn’t expect the same opportunities to target him that they had in Week 1. Amos, Rasul Douglas, and Amik Robertson give this secondary a more credible group of corners, and Douglas and Robertson have both shown plenty of good individual coverage.
The Commanders play a lot of two-high coverage, particularly Cover 2 and Cover 4. Their two-high rate is 69.6%, second highest in the league, and they are predominantly a zone defense. That doesn’t mean the Eagles should abandon the idea of throwing vertically. There are opportunities downfield.
The classic Cover 2 hole shot, between the cornerback and the safety along the sideline, has been available. Posts and Go routes have also produced high-value plays against them. The Eagles need to recognize the coverage and take those chances when protection allows.
Again, the pass rush is a huge part of the explanation. In the example below, the Commanders send five, and the quarterback still gets a beautiful pocket. You can debate the spacing in the secondary, but at some point somebody up front has to make the quarterback uncomfortable.
This defense is at its best when it blitzes. Extra pressure gives them a better chance to disrupt the play before the coverage is stretched. If I were in the Commanders’ defensive meeting this week, I would plan to blitz the hell out of the Eagles. I would make this offense prove it can identify the pressure and consistently get the ball to the right place. Given the Eagles’ problems answering pressure this season, I would be stunned if the Commanders didn’t lean heavily into that approach. I think we see a 50%+ blitz rate. This will not be like the Cowboys game.
Expect overloads and defenders dropping from unexpected places. An edge defender showing rush can become an underneath coverage player, while a linebacker or defensive back replaces him. The offensive line, quarterback, and receivers need to understand the same answer. Getting the protection right is only part of the job if nobody is available for McKee to throw to.
I want quick options that give McKee somewhere to go immediately when the defense brings more than the protection can handle. Empty can also help clarify the picture and spread the pressure threats out, as long as the ball comes out on time. The Eagles can’t keep responding to pressure by reducing the route options and hoping the remaining receivers eventually get open.
One player I would be particularly careful around in the middle is Sonny Styles. Everyone gets excited watching Frankie Luvu blitz, but Styles is the defender who really caught my attention in coverage. His range is outstanding for a linebacker, and he already shows an impressive understanding of the routes developing around him.
He can threaten pressure near the line, recover into coverage, and get underneath a throw that initially looks available. He isn’t simply dropping to a landmark and waiting. He can relate to the receiver, recognize the next threat, and close a window. Some of it is ridiculous for a rookie. It really helps this defense.
If the Eagles want to attack the middle, I would rather make Luvu defend those routes. He can be drawn toward an underneath receiver, leaving room for a deeper crosser behind him. Dallas Goedert could have opportunities there, but McKee needs to know where Styles is before releasing the ball. A window that looks open at first may not stay open for long.
Run Defense
Their run defense is stronger than the headline EPA ranking suggests. They rank 20th in EPA allowed per rush, which makes this look like another defense the Eagles should run through. However, opposing running backs have managed only 465 yards on 121 carries, averaging 3.84 yards per carry. That is solid conventional run defense.
Daron Payne is a major reason why. He is an outstanding run defender who can make it difficult to create movement inside. Their heavier fronts also cover interior blockers and restrict the combinations an offensive line wants to use. The Eagles will have to earn their yards rather than assume that a two-high look automatically gives them an easy running opportunity.
Kinlaw’s knee injury is worth monitoring because losing him would affect that interior rotation. But even if he is unavailable, I wouldn’t suddenly treat this as a soft run defense.
The biggest reason the overall rushing figures look worse is quarterback scrambles. They have allowed 132 yards on 17 scrambles, with those plays producing +1.102 EPA per attempt and an 88% success rate. That is a significant problem, but it isn’t one the Eagles can exploit in the same way with McKee. It also connects to their pass rush. If the pressure loses its lanes and the underneath defenders have dropped into coverage, a mobile quarterback can escape into space.
There are still ways to attack their conventional run defense. I saw plenty of cutback opportunities when defenders overran the initial direction of the play. Whoever is starting at running back needs to recognize when there is room to cutback. Their aggression can work against them when they lose control of their fits.
Inside zone looks more promising than repeatedly trying to stretch this defense with outside zone. They have allowed 5.53 yards per carry on inside zone runs, compared with 3.36 yards per carry on outside zone runs. For the Eagles, I would build on the more direct running concepts that looked better against the Cowboys and look for those cutbacks, rather than going back to outside zone.
Styles’ range doesn’t mean he always finishes. He misses a lot of tackles and isn’t as good against the run as he is in pass coverage. The Eagles can earn yards if they get their backs into space, but getting through the front is the hard part.
Final Thoughts
I don’t think this is a particularly good defense overall, but I do think it is better than a quick look at the passing and rushing rankings suggests. The corners are more credible with Amos back but the four-man rush is the weakness that keeps putting the rest of the unit in difficult situations.
The Commanders’ game plan should be obvious to predict. They will bring pressure repeatedly and make the Eagles solve it. That is where this matchup will be decided. If McKee gets clear answers, the protection handles the exchanges, and the receivers are available quickly, the Eagles should be fine. There are downfield opportunities when they get a clean pocket, and the defense’s disguises can leave space to attack.
The Eagles need a passing plan that punishes the blitz. They showed some offensive improvement last week, but this is a different test. Make the Commanders pay for bringing extra rushers, and force them back toward the four-man rush that has let them down all season.
Thank you for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you would like to support me further, please check out my Patreon here!
