For awhile now, the eight-team field for the 2026 WNBA playoffs has been unofficially set.
A post-All-Star slide by the Dallas Wings, with seven losses in nine games, combined with the persistence and pluckiness of the Portland Fire, however, did (slightly) open the door for Portland to replace Dallas in the top eight.
With two wins in a row, the Wings have stabilized, giving them the opportunity to officially book their playoff bid over those visiting Fire on Tuesday evening (8 p.m. ET, NBA TV).
On
Sunday, both the New York Liberty and Washington Mystics secured their playoff fates. The Mystics’ win over the Fire, which required a 14-point comeback and career-high 31 points from Shakira Austin, sent the Liberty into the playoffs; their Saturday night escape against the Indiana put them into position for the passive clinching. The Fever’s win over the Sky then officially extinguished Chicago’s postseason chances and guaranteed the Mystics a spot in the playoffs.
If Dallas gets the job done on Tuesday, all the pre-playoff drama will be contained to shifts up and down the top eight, and how such shakeups will determine first-round matchups.
While the Minnesota Lynx have a firm hold on the No. 1 overall seed, with a four-game lead despite Monday night’s loss to the Golden State Valkyries, every other team’s fate can change, and possibly significantly, between now and the end of the regular season. Presuming the Wings are in, the current first-round pairings would be:
- No. 1-seed Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 8-seed Dallas Wings
- No. 2-seed Golden State Valkyries vs. No. 7-seed Washington Mystics
- No. 3-seed Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 6-seed New York Liberty
- No. 4-seed Atlanta Dream vs. No. 5-seed Indiana Fever
Which teams should be happy with this set up? Which teams should be angling for a different first-round foe? And which opponent should certain teams strive to avoid at all costs?
Today, let’s take a quick look at the most likely matchup preferences for the current top-four seeds. Tomorrow, we’ll finish out the playoff field.
No. 1-seed Minnesota Lynx (31-8)
As the No. 1 seed with just eight losses on the season, and with two certified superstars capable of MVP-caliber play in Napheesa Collier and Olivia Miles, the Lynx should fear no first-round opponent.
However, they would likely prefer to see the Wings stick into the No. 8 seed, rather than have them leap the Mystics and send DC into the No. 8 spot. While Minnesota has dominated Dallas, sweeping the season series 4-0 with ease, they’ve best tested by Washington, with the Mystics even taking a game off the Lynx in Target Center.
Size and physicality, especially on the glass, stand as the Lynx’s biggest weaknesses, and those areas, in contrast, are where the Mystics thrive.
Yet, last Friday night, the Lynx earn eda 2-1 season series-clinching win over the Mystics in DC, despite losing the rebounding battle and not having the services of Collier, who was out for rest. Minnesota’s superior shotmaking overcame Washington’s rebounding and free throw advantages. But if the shots fall short in the playoffs, things could get tricky for the Lynx in a Mystics matchup.
No. 2-seed Golden State Valkyries (26-11)
The Valkyries, as things currently stand, are slated to have to confront all the challenges that come with the Mystics’ size and physicality.
Although they are responsible for holding the Mystics to an absolutely anemic 49-point outing in early July, the other two Golden State-Washington matchups, both held in San Francisco, were much more tightly-contested, with the fact that DC stole a game in Ballhalla confirming that Mystics are probably the most fearsome lower seed for any higher-seeded team.
While the final game between the two teams will be played this Thursday, the Liberty, at least thus far, haven’t given the Valkyries too much trouble. With another win in Barclays, Golden State would enter a series against New York with confidence, despite the Liberty’s championship pedigree. Golden State’s best-in-the-league ability to induce poor shooting nights against opponents has particularly shined against New York.
Yet, just like the Lynx, the Wings have to be the preferred opponent for the Valkyries. They swept the season series 3-0, flexing their defensive prowess by keeping Paige Bueckers in check in all three games.
No. 3-seed Las Vegas Aces (26-13)
The Aces, however, are the higher seed that do not want to see the Wings on the other side. Dallas won the first three of the four matchups between the two teams, lighting up Vegas for 90 or more points in all three victories.
Considering it took a near-miracle for the Aces to get one win off the Indiana Fever, on top of the trouble they had putting away the injured Fever in last season’s second round, Vegas likely would prefer to avoid that matchup.
They also probably wouldn’t be thrilled to see New York stick in the No. 6 seed. Despite their overall uninspiring season, the Liberty have performed particularly well against the Aces. But how much better would a first-round matchup with the Mystics be? Vegas did win the season series 2-1, recently notching two-straight home wins over DC. However, the Mystics, like the Liberty, have an excess of interior size to throw at A’ja Wilson.
Conversely, Vegas has been quite comfortable against Golden State and Atlanta. An uneven Aces defense has succeeded in shutting down the Valkyries, and while the Dream finally defeated the Aces in their most-recent matchup, snapping Vegas’ streak of six-straight win, the Aces, and A’ja in particular, have owned Atlanta.
No. 4-seed Atlanta Dream (25-13)
So, we know Atlanta wants to avoid Vegas.
Golden State should also be a no-go for Atlanta. Although the Dream seem like they should be suited to matchup well against the Valkyries, as both teams are defense-first squads that can struggle to generate good offense for 40 minutes, a 3-0 season series sweep by the Valks suggests the Dream would be better off avoiding a first-round trek to Ballhalla.
The Wings, once again, emerge as the preferred opponent. The tendency toward stagnancy that can afflict the Atlanta offense did not occur against defensively-suspect Dallas, as the Dream swept the season series 3-0. The Dream, led by Rhyne Howard, also have succeeded in stifling Bueckers.
However, a first-round rematch with Indiana seems inevitable. Although the Fever certainly are not the Dream’s most preferred opponent, Atlanta has performed well against Indy, and the opportunity for revenge after last season’s first-round upset should provide extra motivation.
It’s probably not surprising that most teams, maybe with the exception of the Aces, would prefer to play the No. 8 seed. Despite this ignominious status, this season still should be seen as a success for the Wings, even they experience a first-round playoff exit.
However, I wouldn’t be eager to bet against Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale. In a best-of-three first round, one signature game from Paige and an unconscious night from Arike would be enough to eliminate a higher seed.
I think Dallas, despite their matchup disadvantages against most of the higher seeds, could still be dangerous. Do you agree?
Could the Wings prove to be a tough-than-expected out in the postseason? Might they even pull off an upset?
Zack Ward just wrote about the Lynx’s championship ambitions in light of the disappointments they experienced in 2024 and 2025. Could Minnesota-native Paige deliver another postseason dagger to her homestate team?
