We know the schedule, we’ve circled the games we’re most interested in, and we’ve prepared to slog through some sleep-deprived workdays during that early season stretch of three straight primetime games. Now it’s time to talk about our record predictions, how we think this season will unfold, and what that might mean for 2027.
Read our predictions and then share yours!
Kevin Knight
Record: 7-10
Team MVP: Bijan Robinson
Rookie of the Year: Zachariah Branch
Starting QB at the end of 2026: Michael Penix Jr.
I’m revising
down my previous record prediction by one game. Something about this Falcons team just feels off—not far enough off that I think they’ll plummet to the bottom of the NFC like some, just not quite right. The way this team has been constructed feels like a transitional year to me, and coming away with a top-10 pick in a potentially loaded QB draft would not be the worst case scenario. At the same time, eight wins is all it might take to win this beleaguered NFC South. So even with this relatively pessimistic record prediction, Atlanta is easily within striking distance of winning the division.
I do think we’re likely to see a more consistent and better coached team. The loss of Jalon Walker for the season and James Pearce Jr. for half the season will be too much for the pass rush to overcome. This defense will be aggressive and fundamentally sound, but they’ll give up big plays in pursuit of blitz pressure. Unfortunately, that’s a necessity for this team as constructed. How good they are against the run is probably a make or break factor in determining if this is a good defense, or a merely OK one.
The bigger concern is the offense, which is now being helmed by Cooper Rush for at least a week or two. I’m not quite sure what to expect from him—there’s a chance that he’s actually a better option than Tua Tagovailoa, based on what we’ve seen so far. Once Penix is back in the lineup, I’d expect a much more aggressive attack, and that should open the door for a more successful offense.
Much depends on Bijan Robinson, who is the type of transcendent talent that can completely change the outlook of an offense. It’s possible that Bijan is so good that the QB situation simply isn’t that important, and he carries the team with a legitimate MVP-caliber season. I do think the upgrades at wide receiver will pay dividends, particularly the addition of rookie Zachariah Branch. Atlanta desperately needs a dynamic target in the quick game, and Branch gives them someone who can turn routine touches into explosive plays. With the added emphasis on special teams, Branch and the return game could play a significant role in maximizing opportunities.
This team is being set up for a big QB addition in 2027, unless Michael Penix Jr. can come in and prove that he’s the future. I don’t know how likely that is, or how healthy he’ll be over the coming years. What I do know is that Atlanta will give him every opportunity to prove himself. While 2026 could be difficult to endure, expect the Falcons to be one of the most aggressive teams in free agency and the draft in 2027.
Tre’Shon Diaz
Record: 6-11
Team MVP: Bijan Robinson
Rookie of the Year: Avieon Terrell
Starting QB at the end of 2026: Michael Penix Jr.
It’s a transitional year for the Falcons, and while I do believe in the young talent on this roster, I’m not sure they can overcome the challenges this team will face this year. Going into the season with the belief that multiple quarterbacks will play doesn’t bode well for confidence. On the other side of the ball, the defense will have to prove it can generate pressure with a completely remade EDGE and DL room.
I think this team has enough talent to compete in most of their games this year, but I believe they’ll struggle to finish and close out games. QB play has the greatest influence on this, specifically the play of Michael Penix Jr. If he’s able to get under center by Week 4 and live up to his draft selection, I could see this team flirt with 9 wins, possibly 10. However, if the inconsistent play remains, wins will be tough to come by. This young defensive core should be a bright spot, but with youth comes inexperience, and we should expect some growing pains. This 2026 team isn’t a Super Bowl contender, but they can prove they have a legitimate foundation in place to be one and enter 2027 set up nicely.
Saivion Mixson
Record: 5-12
Team MVP: Bijan Robinson
Rookie of the Year: Zachariah Branch
Starting QB at the end of 2026: Jack Strand
You never want to be the “Debbie Downer” of the group, but I can see this season getting off the rails pretty quickly.
Is there enough talent, especially young talent, to be optimistic about the Falcons’ future? Absolutely.
Do the young players on defense, along with the magic that Jeff Ulbrich was able to wiggle out of last year’s group, loom large in my mind? Absolutely. (2025 Falcons defense finished 14th in EPA/play and 13th in EPA/dropback)
However, with a schedule like ours, that gets difficult in a hurry; it’s easy to see the Falcons heading into the bye week 3-7 (you can choose your favorite three wins) and trying to find themselves amid a mostly horrible division and either the Panthers or Buccaneers have actually grabbed firm control of it.
Like last year’s Browns debacle, head coach Kevin Stefanski could have another tricky quarterback situation go south, as none of the three quarterbacks I expect to see play throughout this season live up to the standard of a consistent starting quarterback in the NFL. A more likely story: Both Penix and Tagovailoa don’t make it through the year and Strand is inevitably thrown in to limp us into next season’s draft lottery, chock-full of potential quarterback prospects.
All in all, I do believe this looks akin to the 2021 Detroit Lions, which stings more because we’ve now hired three head coaches and two general managers in the same span of their revamped image in the Motor City. But they will show the grit and physicality to stay in games, but won’t have enough high-end talent, including at the quarterback position, to finish it out.
Dave Choate
Record: 8-9
Team MVP: Bijan Robinson
Rookie of the Year: Kendal Daniels
Starting QB at the end of 2026: Michael Penix Jr.
You can only be burned so many times, right? The team’s uncertainty at quarterback, attrition at EDGE rusher, and number of new faces on the staff and roster conspire to make me think this will be another in a long line of losing seasons. Do I think this will be a terrible team? Absolutely not. Do I think the chances of everything coming together to propel this team to 10 wins and a playoff berth are high, given their very real roster questions? Also no. But I’m probably one of the more optimistic souls here, as I often am.
The hope is that by the end of this year, the Falcons know whether they can rely on Penix as their long-term starter, they have their defensive foundation firmly in place, and they’re ready to make noise with plenty of cap space and a nearly full complement of picks in 2027. I’d love to be surprised–and if Penix can live up to his considerable promise and get in the lineup soon, perhaps I will be–but I think this team will not arrive as a true contender in 2026. I do think they’ll be a more cohesive team than they have been in recent years, however, and that eight wins are within their grasp if that happens.
If not, well, we’ll be excited to talk about quarterbacks in the spring!
