Over the last three and a half seasons, Jalen Brunson has become one of the premier players in the league. He’s a three-time All-Star who has made the All-NBA Second Team twice, is constantly heralded as one of the best scorers in the league, and he’s coming off a Clutch Player of the Year Award. But maybe the biggest reason he’s earned the respect as one of the league’s finest is his consistency.
Brunson, like every other player to ever grace a basketball court, has off games. Missed shots, bad decision-making,
ugly process on the offensive end, and bad defense, even for his standards, those things all happen from time to time. But Brunson, maybe more so than any other player in the league, has also developed the reputation of bouncing back and doing so emphatically.
Whenever Brunson has the rare, and uncharacteristic stinker of a game, more often than not, the point guard and leader of the Knicks answers back by not only getting back on track, but playing some of his best basketball. But over the last few weeks, that hasn’t necessarily been the case.
Brunson has still put up very respectable numbers overall, but when compared to his usual numbers, which is a pretty high bar, he’s underperformed. Over his past 13 games, Brunson is averaging 21.7PPG while shooting 44.1% from the field, which are both noticeably lower than the 27.4PPG on 47% shooting he was averaging prior. Not only that, but his turnovers per game have also seen a slight uptick, as they have gone from 2.2 turnovers per game to 2.8. This minor but still non-insignificant difference in play and numbers has led Knicks fans to voice concern, while others have voiced outright disappointment and even condemnation.
Which begs the question: Should Knicks fans be worried? Short answer, no. And here’s why.
While Brunson has come down to earth and has looked surprisingly human over the last few weeks, Brunson’s dip in production can be explained by a change in his role/responsibilities and how opponents have defended the Knicks. This isn’t just about a player simply experiencing a decline in production due to poor play.
Now, Brunson himself would surely be the first one to tell you that he hasn’t played up to par, and that he can, and should play better. But over the last few weeks, Brunson has shifted some of his focus, which has sacrificed some of his usual scoring numbers for the betterment of the team. The point guard has upped his defensive intensity, which has coincided with the recent improvement of the team’s defense, and he’s opted, either by choice or by the way defenses are playing him, to be a bit more of a playmaker than he was to start the season.
Brunson started the season averaging 20.8 field goal attempts per game over his first 49 games. But over his aforementioned—and recent—13-game stretch, those numbers have gone down drastically to just 16.9 attempts per game. And his assists have gone up from 6.1APG to 8.0APG during that span as well. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that defenses, especially the very good ones, have continued to force Josh Hart to make plays, either as a scorer or a passer, and put extra pressure on Brunson to get rid of the ball. Some of it also seems like a choice by him, and or by head coach Mike Brown, as he’s shifted to getting guys involved a bit more often.
There are still some red flags to be wary of. Outside of Wednesday night’s Jazz game, in which he really only played one good half of good Brunson-like basketball, he’s lacked the IT factor that he so often provides, and we’ve seen Brunson struggle a bit more than Knicks fans are accustomed to seeing. He’s looked maybe half a step slow, a bit more hesitant on drives, still falters at times when tasked with being more of a playmaker than a scorer (often due to his height, and not inability to read the game), and it’s been close to a month since he’s scored more than 30 points in a game. Furthering that concern is the fact that, as you can see below, Brunson’s numbers have taken quite a dip since injuring his ankle in the first quarter against the Kings on January 14th.
Brunson’s effective field goal percentage overall, rim field goal percentage, short midrange field goal percentage, and the aforementioned points per game have all gone down significantly. It is a smaller sample size, and Brunson and the Knicks have played some very good defensive teams over that stretch, but it’s still worth noting.
That being said, even during that span, it’s not like Brunson hasn’t had good games. He’s had a 31-point game against the 76ers, a 42-point masterpiece on 52% shooting against the Nuggets, a 31-point game on 57% shooting against the Celtics two nights before a 40-point 48% shooting game against the Pacers, and a 33-point game on 60% shooting against one of the best defensive teams in the league, the Pistons.
If fans want to be concerned, it’s more than understandable. At the end of the day, regardless of how good the Knicks look on paper, New York, especially come playoff time, only goes as far as their captain takes them. But it is admittedly somewhat odd seeing just how many fans have turned on maybe the single most important figure in the franchise’s history, especially since some of his statistical decline has come from him doing the very things those fans have wanted more of-defensive effort, and playmaking. He’s not free of flaws, and he, like Patrick Ewing, Carmelo Anthony, and all of the other Knicks legends that came before him, should be called out when underperforming. But the internet has seen a greater-than-usual place for takes about how “he needs to be traded,” “can’t lead this team in the playoffs,” and even how “he’s washed up.”
Overall, though, my trust in Brunson remains. While there are factors to weigh and things to keep an eye on, my worry level about Brunson has yet to reach a high level. What he’s done, and not done most recently, matters, and that shouldn’t be completely downplayed. But over his 314-game sample size as a Knick, Brunson has continued to surprise, overperform, and show up, especially when it matters most. The hope is that between now and the first round of the playoffs, Brunson can get some much-needed rest, continue to sharpen his ability to balance scoring and playmaking, while maintaining some semblance of the defensive improvements we’ve seen, and ultimately get back to the playoff Brunson we know he can be.
