Am I getting ahead of myself talking about the playoffs on August 1st? Maybe. The Braves likely need to win 90 games to enter the postseason tournament. So they need another 25 wins across the next 52 games to get there. Atlanta has plenty of time to mess this up, but the good people over at Fangraphs have the Braves playoff odds at 99 percent. So we should cross our fingers, I guess. But I don’t think this talk is completely out of school. It’s like announcers talking about a no-hitter. I’m not sure
the Braves active roster is paying attention to what we’re saying over here. So…
The starting pitchers for your NL East leading (presently by 8 games) Atlanta Braves have accumulated 5.9 WAR this season. Collectively, they’re 23rd in WAR entering the games on Friday. Individually, 10-time All-Star Chris Sale and 2023 All-Star Bryce Elder have 85% percent of that total. Eleven other Braves starting pitchers have combined for 0.9 WAR. Right now, there has been no movement in the Braves trade market. This has been the quietest trade deadline that I can ever remember. Now, an absence of rumors doesn’t a dereliction of duty on the part of the Braves. It just means that we haven’t heard anything.
So for now, the Braves have who they have. What Atlanta does have is a significant drop-off from best pitcher to second-best pitcher. Chris Sale is elite, and it feels childish to demand that the Braves have a second possible future Hall of Famer on staff. But it does beg the question about who is best of the rest. And also, how would you structure your pitchers right now? Let’s assume the Braves get AJ Smith-Shawver back permanently, and Spencer Schwellenbach can provide a small number of innings. So assuming that we freeze the roster’s effectiveness right now (meaning how good they are good is how good they are in October, here’s what I think they may handle the first seven innings of each game of a 3-game series. This is a guess of what they might do, not necessarily what they should do.
Game 1: Chris Sale
Game 2: Bryce Elder for 18 batters, then Grant Holmes
Game 3: AJ Smith-Shawver until he’s in trouble, then Reynaldo Lopez, then Martin Perez
I think Weiss would use the bullpen for recover an inning, if necessary. But I’m listing your bulk pitchers here. They would likely put Spencer Schwellenbach in the bullpen, along with Spencer Strider if he is available. Will the Braves acquire someone? Are we rolling with Bryce Elder, Game 2 starter? It’s what it looks like at this point. Bryce Elder on a roll is good, so it could work out. Bad Bryce Elder would be bad, clearly.
