The Golden State Warriors face the LA Clippers on Wednesday night, in the first round of the play-in tournament. For the Dubs, the stakes are simple: win and advance, or lose and go home.
Golden State is not the favorite to win, and you can point to any number of reasons why. They were the worse team this year, finishing with a 37-45 record and a -1.0 garbage time-adjusted net rating, compared to 42-40 and +1.4, respectively, for the Clippers. They ended the season with seven losses in their final
eight games, while LAC eight wins in their last 12 games. And in the regular season finale, which fittingly pitted the Warriors against the Clippers, LA prevailed … despite resting Kawhi Leonard, while the Dubs used Steph Curry (but not Draymond Green).
Add in the fact that the game will be played at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, and the Clippers are the clear favorites. But that doesn’t mean the Warriors can’t win. Far from it, in fact. Here are a few different ways that the Dubs can best the Clippers in the best-of-one series.
Steph Curry
That’s it. That’s the entire point. Leonard is healthier and in more rhythm than Curry, but the Warriors still have the most dynamic player on the court, and the one who is capable of taking over a game the most. He’ll be on a minutes restriction, but we all know what he’s capable of during the time he’s on the court. The Warriors are 3-1 when Curry clears 40 points this year, and all three wins are mighty impressive: a home contest against the Denver Nuggets, and two road victories over the San Antonio Spurs.
When the postseason rolls around, the biggest advantage a team can have is to employ the best player in the game or series. Curry is the best player in this game.
Draymond Green locks down Kawhi Leonard
Leonard is an all-time great player, and even at this stage in his career, we’ve seen just how brilliant he can be. But the Clippers, for as well coached as they are, are not the world’s deepest team, and they live and die by Leonard.
The Klaw has scored 40 or more points on five occasions this season, and the Clippers have amassed five blowout victories in those games. He’s been held to 20 points or fewer just seven times, and LA has gone a lowly 1-6 in those contests, including an October loss to the Warriors.
If there’s one thing the Warriors should be focused on, it’s limiting Leonard. And if there’s one person who is up for that job, it’s Draymond Green.
Green’s defense has been erratic at times this year, but when he’s locked in he’s still among the very best in the world, and likely headed for a historic 10th All-Defense selection. If he takes the game and the matchup seriously, he could help keep Leonard in check, and that’s the key to victory for Golden State. The Clippers have become more well-rounded and deep following the James Harden trade, but they’re also more reliant on Leonard. The biggest task of the night will go to Green defending Leonard, and hopefully getting some help in the paint from his bigs.
Play in control, but still freely
I’m not exactly breaking news when I say that the Warriors struggled with turnovers this year, as they finished with the fifth-worst turnovers committed per 100 possessions this season.
The Dubs turned the ball over 16 or more times in exactly half of their games this year, and they went 17-24, compared to 20-21 when they had 15 or fewer turnovers.
Interestingly, the Warriors had a losing record (11-12) when they turned the ball over 12 or fewer times. I might just be getting too granular with the data here, but it would suggest to me that the Warriors are at their best when they take decent care of the ball, but still play free and loose. Their system is always going to result in turnovers, and when they’re at their best, the ball is going to go through someone’s hands a few times as they try to make a great pass. That’s just the cost of playing motion basketball.
In fact, the Warriors had single-digit turnovers on four occasions this year (including once against the Clippers), and lost three of those four games (including the one against LA). The goal has to be playing freely but not carelessly.
Turn rebounds into offense
The Clippers were one of the worst rebounding teams in the league this year. They were just 25th in garbage time-adjusted defensive rebounding, and 23rd in offensive rebounding. That means the Warriors — no great rebounding team — should have an easier time than usual collecting boards.
Golden State has a lot of players — namely Curry and Brandin Podziemski — who love to swoop in from the perimeter to grab a rebound, and push the offense forward. That’s going to be a huge key in this game. The Warriors offense is always at its best when it’s pushing up the court, and LA’s defense is much more vulnerable when they can’t get set, and get Leonard on their preferred matchup.
Neither team is particularly young or fresh, but if the Warriors can play like they are, that will go a long ways.
Run them off the perimeter
LA is one of the best-shooting teams in the league, as they finished seventh in the NBA with a 36.8% mark from deep. But part of why they shoot so well is that they’re selective: they were just 22nd in the league in threes attempted per 100 possessions, a mark that has surely gone down since trading away Harden.
The Clippers can beat you from deep if you let them, but they’re happy to step inside the arc if you ask them to. It would behoove the Warriors to do exactly that, especially since Al Horford and Kristaps Porziņģis — who both provide strong interior defense — are healthy.
And finally…
Catch a few breaks
It’s been a woefully unlucky season for the Warriors. But after four recent championships and six runs to the finals, the Dubs won’t be getting sympathy points from anyone. Still, no matter how talented you are, most teams have to rely on a few shreds of luck to win in the postseason. The Warriors have ridden that luck to parades through the Bay Area, and they’ve seen it capsize their dreams early in the playoffs. In a single-elimination postseason game, a little bit of luck could go a long way.
