Arizona is just 10-15 here in June and have lost 6 of 8. But they’re 6-0 against the Giants this season with a +22 run differential. It hasn’t been a fair matchup, but if the Giants really are on a minor upswing (12-12 in June), then this should be a competitive series.
The Diamondbacks were 31-24 after sweeping the Giants in Arizona just about a month ago, and were 10th in runs scored and 16th in team ERA (far lower in both categories if you go to the analytics). Corbin Carroll (158 wRC+), Nolan
Arenado (123), Ildemaro Vargas (122), and Ketel Marte (120) led the charge with the bats while they got by on the pitching side thanks to Michael Soroka (1.6 fWAR, 2.87 FIP) and Eduardo Rodriguez (1.1 fWAR, 3.73 FIP). But that sweep is when the seasons started to reverse for both teams.
Arizona is 10-18 since the sweep while the Giants are 13-14. While Michael Soroka’s great Comeback Player of the Year-type season was continuing apace (4 starts, 2.57 ERA/3.10 FIP, +0.5 fWAR) until 10 days ago when he found himself on the IL. Eduardo Rodriguez has sort of soft-landed from being above average to average with a 2.20 ERA over his last 5 starts (28.2 IP) betrayed by a 4.81 FIP (5.33 xERA). Meanwhile, Ryne Nelson, Merrill Kelly, and Zac Gallen are a combined -1.5 fWAR over this stretch with a combined 7.08 ERA in 89 innings (16 starts combined). Simply put: three of the worst starters in the sport, making Arizona’s rotation one of the worst since they last swept the Giants.
But it’s not just the pitching that has lost its rattle. The Diamondbacks’ lineup has scored the second-fewest runs in MLB over the past 30 days (95), trailing only the Guards (91). Their offensive leaders through May 27th have all declined: Corbin Carroll (117 wRC+) and Ketel Marte (106) are still above average, but certainly not hitting at elite levels. Nolan Arenado (36) and Ildemaro Vargas (1 wRC+) have fallen off a cliff.
The Giants were looking like a lineup that had finally gotten on a roll, but for all their big wins, their 133 runs scored since May 28th is just 15th in MLB. Analytically, they’ve still been the best offense (126 wRC+ — 1st) and compared to Arizona’s putrid performance (80 wRC+), an absolute juggernaut. The only Giants (min 5 PA) who haven’t been better than league average over the last 30 days: Willy Adames (93 wRC+), Daniel Susac (47), Drew Cavanaugh (42), Eric Haase (28), and Buddy Kennedy (-53 and who was traded to the Mariners).
So, the Giants have this series locked up, right?
Well, you know, as dominant as Logan Webb and Robbie Ray have been, the rest of the Giants are still really easy to hit. Over the past 30 days, they’re 13-14 with a 4.51 team ERA. That’s 21st in MLB. Their +1.7 fWAR is 20th. Remarkably, the Giants have been one of the worst groundball teams in the sport, with a 40.2% groundball rate (19th). Now, on the season ,they’re holding firm at 44.4% (5th in MLB), and that’s where they want to be. It’s just interesting to note that they haven’t been getting as many groundballs this past month. To show you just how much of a groundball franchise they’ve been: the groundball/flyball data started being recorded in 2002, but since that time, the Giants have had a pitching staff with a groundball rate below 42% just twice: 2020 (38.8%) and 2008 (39.2%). So, hopefully, this is just a blip created by Logan Webb being on the IL.
Who: San Francisco Giants (35-48) at Arizona Diamondbacks (41-42)
Where: Chase Field | Phoenix, Arizona
When: Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday at 6:40pm PT
National broadcasts: None
Projected starters
Monday: Tyler Mahle (RHP 1-7, 5.49 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP 6-2, 2.27 ERA)
Tuesday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-7, 4.07 ERA) vs. TBD
Wednesday: Trevor McDonald (RHP 2-6, 4.94 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (RHP 3-7, 6.15 ERA)
Players to watch
Diamondbacks
Geraldo Perdomo: Last year’s breakout (7.1 fWAR) had a .672 OPS through the last sweep of the Giants, but since then, he’s hit .286/.397/.408 (.805 OPS) in 28 games. He and his teammates spent the weekend being swept by the Rays, but he had a great series, going 6-for-11 with a double and a homer. He’s been sluggish at home, though (.659 OPS) and he’s just 5-for-22 against the Giants in 2026.
Paul Sewald & Kevin Ginkel: Arizona’s bullpen has been bad here in June (5.00 ERA in 81 IP, +0.1 fWAR), though not nearly as bad as the Giants’ has been (5.95 ERA in 78.2 IP, -0.4 fWAR). And that’s because their closer and primary setup dude have performed as well as any pitcher in either role possibly could. Ginkel is 2-0 with a pair of holds this month, but his 2.16 ERA is exposed by a 5.98 FIP. Still, he’s managed to perform in leverage spots, with a +0.34 Win Probability Added. Sewald picked up two saves in that sweep of the Giants but he was a little rickety: a 3.72 ERA / 3.93 FIP; but, in June, he’s 1-0 with 4 saves and, despite a 4.70 ERA, a solid 3.23 FIP and +0.35 WPA. These guys are get-to-able if the Giants’ hitters are on their game, but right now they’re both pitching very well.
LuJames Groover: He was drafted in 2023 and is known for his plate discipline (.392 OBP in the minors), but look, all I care about is that his name is LuJames Groover, because that’s a cool name, but it also makes me think of MacGruber.
Giants
Bryce Eldridge: A potentially great hitter against a bad pitching staff? Yes, please.
Heliot Ramos: A middle of the order slugger combing back from injury against a bad pitching staff? Thank you!
Landen Roupp: He’s 0-6 with a 5.12 ERA (3.08 FIP) in his last 10 starts (51 IP). The Giants are 0-10 in those starts.
Prediction time
Since I haven’t mentioned them yet, I will predict that Pavin Smith and Tommy Troy will annoy the Giants at least once in this three game series.
