We have been doing this for a few years now: looking at the top free agents, using the contract Ben Clemens suggests he’ll get, and asking whether you would like the Jays to give him that contract. This year, the lockout makes it a little more complicated.
Number one on both Keith Law and Ben Clemens’ list of top free agents is, of course, Tarik Skubal. Skubal turns 30 on the 20th of this month. He won the AL Cy Young in 2024 and 2025 (this year he split time between the AL and NL). He had a terrific
2026 season: a 2.72 ERA in 26 starts, a 12-7 record, 186 strikeouts in 158.2 innings, and just 27 walks.
Career, he is 66-44 with a 3.02 ERA and a 22.7 bWAR.
The only downside is his injury history. Three elbow surgeries since college, one this past season. But then, he’s made 88 starts in the last three seasons.
Keith Law said:
Skubal is the obvious star of this free-agent class, a No. 1 starter on any club when he’s healthy, although we didn’t see that version of Skubal as much in 2026 as we did in 2024 and 2025, when he won back-to-back Cy Young Awards and was worth 6+ WAR each season (using either version of WAR). He can show three plus pitches — his upper-90s four-seamer, wipeout changeup with excellent arm speed and some fading action, and a slider that plays above its “shape,” due in part to its velocity, up to 92-93. He’s posted walk rates below 5 percent in four straight seasons, consistently limits hard contact, and doesn’t let hitters pull the ball in the air that much, so his BABIPs have come in better than league average in every year of his career — he’s at .281 overall and has never allowed a BABIP of .300 in any season, which is Clayton Kershaw-level pitching.
Clemens:
Skubal is the obvious star of this free-agent class, a No. 1 starter on any club when he’s healthy, although we didn’t see that version of Skubal as much in 2026 as we did in 2024 and 2025, when he won back-to-back Cy Young Awards and was worth 6+ WAR each season (using either version of WAR). He can show three plus pitches — his upper-90s four-seamer, wipeout changeup with excellent arm speed and some fading action, and a slider that plays above its “shape,” due in part to its velocity, up to 92-93. He’s posted walk rates below 5 percent in four straight seasons, consistently limits hard contact, and doesn’t let hitters pull the ball in the air that much, so his BABIPs have come in better than league average in every year of his career — he’s at .281 overall and has never allowed a BABIP of .300 in any season, which is Clayton Kershaw-level pitching.
Clements figures he will get a 10-year contract at $38 million a year, for a total of $380 million, taking him to his age 39 season.
