Basketball experts and fans are universally picking the Spurs as the team most likely to make the leap from the lottery to a 2026 playoff participant. Many reasons support this, including another season of improvement from Victor Wembanyama, a full year of Victor on the floor with De’Arron Fox, talented young guards Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and a true back-up 5 in Luke Kornet.
However, for the Spurs to make the playoffs this season, at least one of last year’s playoff participants must drop
off. But when I look around the good teams in the Western Conference, I ask myself – did they actually all get better? I would feel a lot better about the Spurs’ chances of leaping into the playoffs if the team played in the Eastern Conference, where top teams like the Celtics, Pacers, and Bucks suffered injuries that will remove some of their best players from the roster this year. Indeed, the Bucks removed Damian Lillard from their roster forever by doing that strange “cut and extend” thing. The Celtics lost Jayson Tatum and traded away Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Pacers lost two starters – Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to free agency. All three teams will surely take a big step backward.
Not so in the West, especially when we look at the top five teams from last season. Let’s start at the top with the Oklahoma City Thunder. While the Thunder’s off-season did not result in any significant new players, they will have two players returning from injury – Jaylin Williams and Nikola Topic. Of course, the Thunder do not need to get better. They had a historically dominant regular season and were surely seasoned by a much tougher run through the playoffs than anyone expected. So even though the Thunder do not need to be better this season than last, they probably will be.
Last year’s second place team, the Rockets, added a generational talent in Kevin Durant. While KD’s generation might be the previous one, he remained extremely effective, averaging 27 points per game, shooting 43% from three and 53% overall. And he did that while playing with the dysfunctional Phoenix Suns. KD must be thrilled to be back in Texas, playing with a well-coached contender surrounded by young talent. The Rockets also added the versatile Dorian Finney-Smith, a good defender who shot 41% from three. The Rockets lost young talent in Jalen Green and Cam Whitmore and toughness in Dillon Brooks, but getting KD, if he can stay healthy, clearly constitutes a short-term gain for the 2025-26 Rockets.
Living in Los Angeles, I know that the LA teams’ fans are excited about the off-seasons of the Lakers (3rd place last year) and the Clippers (5th place, but with the same 50-32 record). The Lakers replaced Jaxon Hayes at center with Deandre Ayton. Even though Ayton has been a huge disappointment since his encouraging early years with the Suns, he is still an upgrade over Hayes. (Anyone would be.) The Lakers also added toughness in Marcus Smart, who can’t defend like he used to, but he is still better than the other Laker perimeter defenders – defenders who no longer include Finney-Smith.
The Lakers’ biggest gain might come from a loss: the 20+ pounds purportedly lost by Luka Doncic. If a heavy Luka could average 28-8-8, imagine what a slimmer, faster Luca can do. (Restaurants and bars in Manhattan Beach are cutting back on staff on Lakers off-nights.)
The Clippers essentially made a three for one trade. They lost Norman Powell, who should have made the All-Star team last season and has gotten better every year, but they gained Bradley Beal, John Collins, and Brook Lopez. While the exchange did not make the Clippers any younger (stars James Harden and Kawhi Leonard also got a year older, as we all did), the Clips know they are in a short window anyway. I don’t expect to see any drop-off for the team this season, and they have a realistic shot at being better. Of course, Harden and the Clippers will fold again in the playoffs, but we are just talking about the regular season.
Like the Clippers, the Nuggets (who were also 50-32 last season) pulled off the equivalent of a three for one deal. They shipped the enigmatic (and overpaid) Michael Porter, Jr. for a guy who is probably as good as him and is certainly cheaper – Cam Johnson. So you don’t have to look it up, MPJ averaged 18-7-2 while shooting 40% from three. Johnson averaged 19-4-3 for the Nets (and didn’t have Joker dropping dimes to him). Cam’s salary is $17 million (!) less than MPJ’s “max contract” (don’t get me started). The money the Nuggets saved from that trade allowed them to bring back Bruce Brown, a crucial component of the Nuggets’ championship team. They also traded the player who used to be Dario Saric for an actual back-up center in Jonas Valanciunas. Not only did the Nuggets get many more letters in the alphabet onto their team, but having Valanciunas means they no longer have to fill the non-Joker minutes with the player who used to be DeAndre Jordan.
Those five teams won 50 or more games, 16 or more wins than the Spurs’ 34. The next three Western Conference teams, Minnesota, Golden State, and Memphis, won 49, 48, and 48, respectively. Damn, the West was loaded last year. Thankfully, those three teams did not do much to improve themselves over the off-season. While the Warriors picked up Jimmy Butler during the season, their off-season has been defined by the hazy status of Jonathan Kuminga, the best young player on the team. If the Warriors lose Kuminga – or his situation becomes a distraction – the W’s may drop back a bit. The Grizzlies lost key player Desmond Bane for a bunch of draft picks that won’t help them this season. They also have to hope that Ja Morant keeps his suspensions and games lost to injury to less than 20 games. (I am taking the over.) The T’Wolves lost key reserve Nickeil Alexander-Walker to the Heat – a salary cap casualty – and didn’t add anyone.
I started this by asking if all the good teams in the West got better. After sifting through all of the additions and subtractions, I believe that the top five teams probably did improve. Dallas adding Cooper Flagg probably makes them better than they were at the end of the season (they lost in the Play-In Tournament after finishing 39-43), but not as good as they were when they had heavy Luka. (Luka was injured and only played 22 games for the Mavs in 2024-25.) The other Play-In loser, the Sacramento Kings, have become the Kings again – not terrible but definitely not good. Same old Kings.
As a reminder, the top six teams in the conference make the playoffs, while teams in the 7-10 slots need to win a Play-In game or two to make it into the final eight. While the 2025-26 Spurs cannot realistically expect to challenge the top five from last year, they can set their sights on the next three, along with Play-In losers Mavs and Kings.
Let’s aim for that 6-spot. And maybe face the Clippers in Round One. Does that sound about right?
