Things were pretty ugly in Iowa City on Saturday. In three quarters, the offense accumulated 118 total yards with zero points on the board and two turnovers. Thankfully, Kaden Wetjen went all Cooper DeJean
and put the team on his back to keep things afloat long enough for Mark Gronowski and company to remember what the hell they were doing.
The Hawkeyes awoke in the fourth quarter and managed 172 yards and 13 points on their final five drives to emerge victorious, 20-17 over the Michigan State Spartans.
It was a brutal performance for those first three quarters and nearly resulted in one of the worst losses of the Kirk Ferentz tenure. Iowa was favored by 17.5 points at kickoff and needed a last second field goal by Drew Stevens to avoid becoming the FIRST conference win for the now 3-8 Spartans.
And yet, as we enter the final week of the college football regular season, Iowa heads to Nebraska as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes opened at -4.5 over on FanDuel Sportsbook in a game with the over/under set at 38.5 total points. The line has already jumped to Iowa -6.5. That gives us an implied final score of Iowa 22.5, Nebraska 16.
If that were to hold true, it would be the largest margin of victory for Iowa since their 28-21 over the Huskers in Lincoln back in 2021. Iowa has won the last two games in the series in dramatic fashion. While Nebraska holds the all-time mark 30-22-3 over the Hawkeyes, they haven’t won at home in this series since 2011. Iowa has won ten of the last 11 in the series overall and 11 of the last 13 dating back to 2013. Four of the last six Iowa wins have come in walk-off fashion.
While Iowa is fresh off a thrilling win despite their lackluster offensive performance for three quarters, the Cornhuskers come into the day on the other end of things. While both teams are 7-4 overall, Nebraska is fresh off a 37-10 drubbing at Penn State, just the second Big Ten win of the season for the Nittany Lions.
The Huskers, of course, are without starting QB Dylan Raiola for the remainder of the season (and potentially longer given his younger brother recently decommitted from Nebraska). In his absence, backup TJ Lateef threw for 187 yards on 21 of 37 passing (57% completion percentage) against PSU. He also scored Nebraska’s lone TD on the ground, rushing for 15 yards on 10 attempts.
While Raiola is known for his Patrick Mahomes impersonation, down tot he mannerisms and pocket escapability, Lateef is more of a pure dual threat QB who can scramble for big gains, but does not have the same accuracy throwing the ball.
Look for the Huskers to lean on the running game and Emmett Johnson, who has had a fantastic season. Johnson is fourth in the nation with 1,234 yards on the ground and 11 TDs. He’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has another 348 yards and 3 receiving TDs. Phil Parker will no doubt be focused on slowing down Johnson and forcing Lateef into mistakes throwing the ball downfield.
On the other side of things, Nebraska is 38th nationally in scoring defense giving up 21.5 points per game while allowing 167 yards per game on the ground, good for 93rd nationally. They’re much better against the pass, giving up just under 139 yards through the air – 2nd in the nation behind only Ohio State. Those combined have the Huskers 20th nationally in total defense, giving up 306 yards per game.
Expect Iowa to lean on the ground game in this on to grind out another low-scoring, tight affair in Lincoln.
Here’s an early look at the details for Friday’s matchup with the Cornhuskers.
Date: Friday, November 28
Time: 11:00 am CT
Matchup: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4, 5-3) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-4, 4-4)
Location: Memorial Stadium – Lincoln, NE
TV: CBS
Early Weather Forecast: mostly sunny with temps in the upper 40s
FanDuel Opening Line: Iowa -6.5, O/U 38.5
