America’s team, Miami (OH) is 31-0. Enough said? Not really, as Akron is as deadly of a spoiler as an undefeated time might face along the way.
MACtion gets rolling Thursday with, you guessed it, Miami taking on Frank Martin and UMass. Let’s get into it:
MAC Tournament Bracket
Miami Ohio (1)
Our RedHawks. 31 and OH. There is arguably no better team nationally
at creating paint pressure from all five spots on the court, and they’re similarly elite at creating kick-out triples off that pressure. Peter Suder and Luke Skaljac form the nation’s best PNR duo, while Antwone Woolfolk, Brant Byers, and Eian Elmer cut and shoot off the ball. All that said, the interior defense can be weak at times (even if it’s stronger than last year behind Woolfolk), and nine of their wins came either by one possession or in overtime, signaling some potential close-game regression in a very competitive top-half of the MAC.
Akron (2)
Miami’s offense is deadly, but the Zips are just as lethal. They’re an unreal drive-and-kick offense with elite spacing, especially thanks to five-man Amani Lyles (41% from 3). The main difference between Miami and Akron is that the Zips can really play defense, leading the MAC in turnover rate and 2-point shooting allowed.
Kent State (3)
While the MAC’s top two teams are more skilled offenses predicated on spacing and shooting, Kent State’s offense is the exact opposite. The Flashes are bulldozers, leading the league in offensive rebounding and free-throw rate behind a two-man wrecking crew frontcourt comprised of Delrecco Gillespie and Rob Whaley.
Toledo (4)
Toledo funnels plenty of its offense through the post, with the guards cutting and shooting off that action — overall, it’s an effective, balanced offense with four double-digit scorers. But the Rockets’ interior defense is dreadful, and they can’t rebound.
Bowling Green (5)
The Falcons rebound everything and push the ball, spending a ton of time trying to get to the rim in transition. Guard Javontae Campbell is a fun watch, averaging 19/5/5 with three steals per game while scoring 1.2 PPP in transition (71st percentile) on high volume (five possessions per game, 93rd percentile).
Ohio (6)
Jackson Paveltzke is a stud as a bigger point guard. The Bobs are very good at posting and cutting. They’re not good at rebounding, and they foul too often. However, they ran a -6% 3-point delta in conference play, so some positive regression could help spur an upset bid against Kent State in the first round.
Buffalo (7)
The Bulls were an uber-fun guard-heavy squad before Daniel Freitag went down. Ryan Sabol can make everything, but they’re likely cooked without his running mate.
Massachusetts (8)
UMass doesn’t do much well, but the Minutemen were among the nation’s unluckiest teams this year, losing seven games either by one possession or in overtime. I’m the world’s biggest Marcus Banks fan, as he’s a total microwave 3-point shooter — he had two 30-point games and two more 29-point games this season.
Quick MAC Tournament Thoughts
The top of the MAC was historically strong this season. The quality of the offensive play among the top four seeds was so incredibly high, making this conference a high-quality watch this season.
As such, I suspect this will be a relatively chalky tournament. If I had to pick one first-round upset, I’d pick Ohio over Kent State, but the frontcourt mismatch in that game might be too much for the Bobs.
Ultimately, I see Miami and Akron meeting in the final. But I actually see the Zips flipping the script and taking down the undefeated Hawks in the final. I genuinely think Akron is the best team in the MAC, and I believe its quality defensive play will be the difference, while Miami is due to lose a close game eventually.
Afterwards, the #TwoBidMAC campaign begins…
Official (Wrong) Tournament Champ Prediction: Akron over Miami, 86-83
