Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, October 24 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium — Charlotte, NC
- Spread: North Texas (-26.5)
- Over/under: 61.5
- All-time series: Charlotte leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: Charlotte 49, North Texas 21 — October 10, 2020
- Current streak: Charlotte, 2 (2019-20)
Setting the scene
Charlotte and North Texas both got the call to transition from Conference USA to the American Conference in 2023. Neither program attained bowl eligibility in years one or two, but there is a vast separation
in year three trajectories. North Texas (6-1, 2-1 American) is eyeing a conference title and dark-horse College Football Playoff appearance, while Charlotte (1-6, 0-4 American) is aiming for its first FBS win.
There will be no shortage of green on the field as the two programs collide for the first time since 2020 in Friday night primetime action.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas is back on track. The Mean Green’s first 5-0 start since 1959 was spoiled in a primetime nationally televised game against ranked South Florida, as their bid for perfection concluded in 63-36 fashion. But Eric Morris’ team showed an impressive sign of maturity by shaking off its first loss and absolutely handling UTSA in 55-17 fashion.
North Texas now owns the nation’s top scoring offense at 45.0 points per game, and the offense has a more-than-worthy leader in Drew Mestemaker. Mestemaker’s story is well-documented at this point — he never started a game between ninth grade and the 2024 First Responder Bowl but immediate shined. This year, he is more than a feel-good story. He’s a force as a passer, delivering pro-level throws on the regular. Mestemaker exhibits a ratio of 17 touchdowns delivered to three interceptions thrown, and all three interceptions occurred in the lone defeat to South Florida. He averages 266 yards on a 66.7 completion rate, keeping North Texas’ aerial offense rolling at all times.
Mestemaker doesn’t have a favorite target. Wyatt Young, Cameron Dorner, and Miles Coleman all share somewhat identical season stat-lines, ranging between 25-30 catches for 320-396 yards. Coleman missed the UTSA game due to injury and his status remains questionable heading into Week 9. However, that absence allowed Young to step into the spotlight, and he is fresh off a 102-yard, 3-touchdown outburst against the Roadrunners.
The skill position savants extend to the running back room. Perhaps the team’s most pleasant surprise in 2025 is the stardom of true freshman tailback Caleb Hawkins. Hawkins is fresh off his second 130+ rushing performance in a 3-game span, and he averages an impressive 6.7 yards per carry. Residing in an air raid based offense, Hawkins is often utilized in the receiving game too, hauling in eight receptions last week to nearly produce a 100-100 game as a rusher and receiver.
The other positive development guiding this North Texas run is the vast improvement of the defense. The Mean Green are a turnover machine, forcing an FBS-best 17 takeaways on the season. North Texas’ run defense is still vulnerable at times, but the frequent turnover production and a stellar passing defense help mask lapses against the ground game. There is supreme talent within this linebacking corps, where Shane Whitter, Trey Fields, and Ethan Wesloski rank as the top three tacklers — combining for 11 tackles for loss and three interceptions.
Charlotte 49ers outlook
Tim Albin’s first season at Charlotte is one of serious adversity. Not only are his 49ers 1-6 bereft of a single FBS victory, but athletic director Mike Hill was recently fired and the team is incredibly banged up. Charlotte’s latest availability report listed 12 players out for the season and six additional bodies out for last week’s 49-14 thrashing at the hands of Temple. Among those injuries include starting quarterback Conner Harrell (season), starting running Henry Rutledge (season), star wide receiver E. Jai Mason (game), and its top offensive lineman Jonny King (game).
Thus, Charlotte must find emerging talent within its available crop of players. One involves settling on a quarterback. The 49ers have alternated between Grayson Loftis and Zach Wilcke at quarterback, and the cycling may continue until one delivers a standout performance. Loftis started the Temple game and produced 108 yards on a 10-of-22 showing, while Wilcke started the prior outing at Army, generating 42 yards on an 8-of-14 performance. Although the numbers haven’t been there since Harrell’s season ending injury, the passing game is the strength of the 49ers’ offense. Given the lack of healthy options at receiver, Javen Nicholas (34 receptions, 354 yards) has taken over as the premier No. 1 to bolster the aerial game.
Charlotte is also trying to unearth a rushing attack after ranking 119th nationally in yards per game through Week 8. Rod Gainey Jr. was the focal point of the run game earlier in the year, but Jake Davids and Cameren Smith are increasing their reps as Charlotte looks for a working solution to improve upon 3.1 yards per carry.
If the 128th-ranked scoring offense wasn’t enough to overcome, Charlotte also sports the 127th-ranked scoring defense. Two of the last three conference opponents put up 49+ on the 49ers which exhibit a third-to-last FBS ranking in stopping the run. Charlotte isn’t generating stops consistently, and it isn’t producing takeaways as a substitute either — picking off two passes and recovering four fumbles through seven outings. Strong safety Ja’Qurious Conley has been the best at contributing to this effort with an interception, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery, and 39 tackles in a stellar individual campaign. But creating turnovers starts with pressure, and Charlotte only has six sacks all season. With the d-line not getting to the quarterback, the 49ers hope to dial up some Reid Williford linebacker blitzes to muddy up the game against an elite North Texas offense.
Prediction
This one is going to be a blowout. As the injuries and losses rack up for Charlotte, things might get worse before they get better. The 49er faithful are still showing up in support, but homefield advantage won’t prevail against a North Texas team that keeps decimating its competition. The Mean Green will be up 14-0 after their first two possessions and will clinch a seventh victory — essentially securing their first winning season since 2018.
Prediction: North Texas 52, Charlotte 10
