It’s back to the division for the Falcons, who play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the first time in 2026. They’ve lost to the Panthers and beaten the Saints already, but a win here gets Atlanta to 4-4 and puts the hapless Bucs down at 2-6, a hole that will be tough for them to climb out of even in the dismal NFC South. That would be a good time.
The question is whether the Falcons will. The Bucs have been finding their footing a bit, with two wins and one overtime loss in the last three weeks against
the Cowboys, Steelers, and Panthers. The Tampa Bay defense is rounding into form as an aggressive, problem-causing unit, dragging a poor offense behind them. If Tampa can force multiple turnovers and get the ground game going, they have a genuine shot in this one. If not, the Falcons could give us a very fun afternoon.
Here’s what you need to know about the game ahead.
Team rankings
On paper, the Buccaneers are not really that much worse than Atlanta. Their passing game is abysmal, but the defense has been good and improving quickly, they run the ball well, and they’ve forced plenty of turnovers. I wouldn’t say Tampa Bay is good, but if they can drag their passing game up to passable, they’ll probably hang around in the division.
Atlanta, meanwhile, is better than its numbers but also inconsistent enough that those numbers can seem like a true reflection of where they’re at. The passing game is league average at worst, the ground game is effective, and the defense has been solid much of the season. It’s just about finding a way to string together quality performances of the caliber they managed against Green Bay, New Orleans, and San Francisco.
How the Bucs have changed in 2026
A fateful decision this offseason was the hiring of Zac Robinson to run the offense after he flamed out in Atlanta. Robinson knows how to put together a compelling run game and has gotten a lot out of Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell, but the passing attack has utterly cratered with Baker Mayfield, injured Baker Mayfield, and rookie Jalon Daniels. You can’t put all of their failures on Robinson, but our criticisms of his passing attacks are carrying over to Tampa Bay.
The Bucs went shopping for Alex Anzalone at linebacker, A’Shawn Robinson for their defensive line, Al-Quadin Muhammad off the edge, and…well, not much else. It was a fairly quiet offseason with an emphasis on defense, which was a little striking after they lost Mike Evans. They also invested their first two picks in the defense, adding linebacker Josiah Trotter and edge Rueben Bain Jr., with promising receiver Ted Hurst their only major addition on offense. This was a team that believed it had outsized defensive needs but a stable offense; that’s not how things have really worked out.
Critically, Tampa Bay also caved and gave Baker Mayfield a contract extension just in time for him to turn into a pumpkin. Mayfield’s numbers were still quite solid but took a nosedive in 2025, and now he’s been either injured or a shadow of himself. You hate to see it*.
*I do not, in fact, hate to see it.
What to know about Week 8
This is a classic letdown matchup that the Falcons must be cautious of. You have a divisional rival that has struggled to this point, but divisional matchups are always a little crazy. The Falcons are riding high after knocking off the undefeated 49ers, but so is Tampa Bay, which dominated Carolina despite a complete lack of a functional passing attack. That should make Atlanta wary and likely will.
We’ll start with the obvious caveat: The Buccaneers have not been able to pass in 2026. Mayfield has started four games and has labored in nearly all of them, throwing for just three touchdowns and two interceptions, absorbing 13 sacks, and playing poorly under pressure, with a measly 4.6 yards per attempt average when the heat is close by. Last week in his return from injury, he threw the ball just 11 times for 64 yards, and his mobility seems to be limited as he’s recovering. There’s talent here—Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Cade Otten among them—but Otten’s been quiet, Egbuka has not quite emerged as a difference-making talent, and Godwin is now 30 and has slowed somewhat. Mike Evans is gone, and predictably, the loss of a future Hall of Famer and ageless wonder has indeed slowed this group.
Even if Mayfield and company bounce back somewhat, this is a more pedestrian group than many of the offenses Atlanta has faced. The bigger danger is on the ground, where Bucky Irving and (to a much lesser extent) Kenneth Gainwell have been superb. Irving is a dangerous, slashing runner who is thriving in Robinson’s scheme, and the Falcons have struggled in two of the past three weeks to contain capable runners in Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry. They’ll want to make the Bucs one dimensional by getting an early lead and shutting down Irving in the first two quarters, but that’s easier said than done.
Presuming there are no colossal screwups from a defense that largely impressed against a much better team, the Falcons should be able to hold the Bucs to 20 or fewer points. The question concerns whether their offense will be up to the task of overcoming a Bucs defense that very quietly has only allowed more than 17 points once in the past month, has held opposing passing games under 250 yards in all but one game, and has only allowed one team to rush for more than 100 yards against them. Most concerning is the habit of creating turnovers, as the Bucs have eight in their past three games and an ability to create pressure, something Michael Penix Jr. has struggled with more than just about any other quarterback in the NFL.
Compounding the problem is the fact that Bijan has consistently struggled to get going against the Bucs run defense, with his career high of 93 yards against them coming late last year and no other games above 63 yards. The Falcons survived a pedestrian day from Bijan (by his lofty standards, at least) against the 49ers, but if the Bucs can get that done again and impact Penix, it could be a long afternoon for this offense.
The formula is simple enough: Force Mayfield to beat you by bottling up Irving, keep Penix clean and in rhythm, and don’t become one-dimensional. This is a very winnable game against a diminished team, but the Falcons have stumbled many times in the recent past coming off a big win against an inferior opponent. It’s time to buck the trend.
