In Chaim Bloom’s end-of-season press conference, he was firm on his stance that the Cardinals would not take any shortcuts in building a team that could contend for division titles and World Series championships. Watching the Cubs get swept out of the playoffs in two games was quite enjoyable, but was also a good reminder of how silly the current playoff structure is. But whatever. Those are the rules, so the only way to avoid the fake playoffs and get a real series is to win the division with a top-two
record in the league.
Building a team that can compete for a division title is not a theoretical target. The Brewers happen to play in the NL Central with the Cardinals, so the path to reaching this goal runs through Milwaukee. If your goal is to beat another baseball team in a baseball game, a critical component of the exercise is to have better baseball players on your team. Unfortunately for us Cardinals fans, the Brewers have had really excellent baseball players over the last few years.
Today, I am going to go position by position and diagnose which franchise has the edge in 2027 and long term. For this exercise, I am focused entirely on players already within the respective organizations. This is not an argument for or against the Cardinals acquiring outside help, but rather just a snapshot of the current talent pools. When I am thinking about the long-term outlook of a position, I am mostly focused on the current major league roster and upper-level prospects. Both the Cardinals and Brewers have super deep and talented farm systems, but it is too early to start making plans around Trevor Condon or Ricki Moneys. Finally, this post got pretty long, so this will only cover the position-player side of things.
The Brewers posted a team FanGraphs WAR of 26.1 this season, outclassing the Cardinals’ 15.6 WAR. Let’s dive right in and get to work.
For space, not all players are listed, so the player total will not equal the positional total. Def is the FanGraphs defensive value plus positional adjustment.
Catcher
The Brewers had a significant edge on the Cardinals during the 2026 season thanks to the excellent all-around play of William Contreras and a surprisingly effective offensive season from Gary Sanchez.
The catcher position looks to be one of the more tenuous ones for Milwaukee moving forward. Contreras is under contract for only one more season and seems like a prime candidate to be traded in the offseason. Sanchez will be 34 next season and is not under team control (mutual option). The Brewers have two organizational top-30 prospects at the catcher position in Jefferson Quero and Marco Dinges. Quero was previously a top-100 prospect at some outlets, but had a down 2026 season with a below-average Triple-A batting line. He looks like a poor man’s Jimmy Crooks to me. Dinges is a power/bat-first prospect with only 58 Double-A plate appearances and does not project as a starting-caliber player.
The Cardinals are primed to give Bernal the starting job with Crooks or Pages serving as the backup and Ivan Herrera as the third catcher. Of course, Rainiel Rodriguez may factor in at some point in 2027. With all the comments from the front office about getting Rodriguez positional versatility, I am starting to think that he is more likely to break in as a corner infielder. This makes sense to me for a couple of reasons. The obvious one is the depth of options at the catcher position. The other reason is that he might simply be outhitting the catcher position. There is a real chance that he is a top-10 hitter in MLB and a potential cornerstone for the franchise for the next decade. Do you really want to risk the wear-and-tear of the catcher position on a bat that elite? I am not sure I do.
With or without Rodriguez behind the plate, the Cardinals should have a big edge over the Brewers over the next three seasons. William Contreras has declined by WAR the last three seasons and is getting to the older side for a catcher going into his age-29 season. Still, he is a stud and Bernal is more upside than a guarantee, so the Brewers get a slight edge for 2027.
2027: Brewers, slight edge
Long term: Cardinals, big edge
First Base
The Brewers produced the best first-base offensive output in baseball with the platoon of Bauers (career 88 wRC+ coming into the year) and Vaughn (career 102 wRC+ coming into the year).
Give the Brewers as much credit as you want for the production they got out of these two, but this level of performance is almost certainly unsustainable. Bauers is a free agent and Vaughn has one more year of team control. The Brewers do have an enviable amount of upper-minors corner bats on the way. Andrew Fischer hit 48 home runs between High-A and Double-A. He may stick at third base, but was given time at first as well. He looks like an extreme version of Joshua Baez, if you can imagine that, with a 33% strikeout rate and 37% whiff rate. Blake Burke hit 30 home runs in Double-A as a 23-year-old and Luke Adams cracked out a 149 wRC+ as a 22-year-old in Triple-A. None of these prospects are considered top-100, but all three have a chance to be problems in the future.
The Cardinals have Alec Burleson under team control through 2028. If he is around, he will get the vast majority of the playing time for at least the next two seasons. Jack Gurevitch and Deniel Ortiz are a tick behind the Brewers’ trio in prospect pedigree, but both have starter upside at first or third base. The big thing in the Cardinals’ favor is all of that catching depth could spill over into first base with Rodriguez and Bernal already playing the position.
I like the Cardinals’ first-base setup in 2027 and going forward. The Brewers have enough prospect depth to make it interesting, but the Cardinals have the best player in Burleson, solid prospect depth with Ortiz and Gurevitch, and the leftover catchers to fill in as needed.
2027: Cardinals, big edge
Long term: Cardinals, slight edge
Second Base
Turang has improved every season of his career and put up borderline MVP-caliber numbers in 2026.
Both teams are set at second base for the foreseeable future. I am guessing that when the 2027 player projections are released, Turang and Wetherholt will be within a half win of one another. Turang is under team control for three more years while Wetherholt is locked in with the Cardinals for eight more seasons. Between these two players, you would much rather have Wetherholt going forward just because of the contract situation. Things are more complicated when you start looking at the minor league depth. The Brewers have a bunch of middle-infield prospects on the way that could slide over to second base. Still, assuming that baseball’s number one prospect, Jesus Made, sticks at shortstop, none of them would be projected to outperform JJ.
2027: Even
Long term: Cardinals, slight edge
Third Base
Joey Ortiz played like prime Nolan Arenado across 50 games, and the Cardinals went a full season without an answer at the hot corner.
Ortiz is not a prototypical third baseman, but he has had excellent production at the position over the last three seasons. With Cooper Pratt in as the primary shortstop until the prospects arrive, I assume Ortiz is going to get the majority of his playing time at third. He is under team control for three more seasons. If either of the aforementioned Andrew Fischer or Luke Adams can make it work defensively, they could challenge for playing time as early as next season as well. Jett Williams is a former top-100 prospect who played plenty of third base in Triple-A, but he had a down season offensively and looks like a utility bat moving forward.
You know all the names that are in play for the Cardinals. If the season started tomorrow, we would get some combination of Saggese and Blaze Jordan. Jesus Baez might start making top-100 prospect lists this offseason and is the most obvious potential fit in the upper-minors. Gurevitch and Ortiz could also be in the discussion at some point, but neither is the type of prospect you pencil in. This is where I start to get excited thinking about whether Rainiel Rodriguez could handle third defensively. If my theory is correct that he might be hitting his way off of the catcher position, it would be a huge deal if he could play third base rather than DH and first.
Neither team has an obvious long-term stud at the position, but the Brewers have a much higher floor with Ortiz. Jesus Made could also be an option at third if his defense does not surpass that of the incumbent shortstop, Cooper Pratt. Luis Pena is the Brewers’ second-best prospect and is ranked in the top-20 on most national lists. He could be their long-term preference at third, but looks like he still has a lot of developing to do. Scouts love Pena because of his tools and the exit velocity numbers he has posted, but he has yet to crack double-digit home runs in a season and has not done much offensively above Low-A. He is only 19 and has already made it to Double-A, but until he puts up actual numbers, I will not be too worried about him.
2027: Brewers, big edge
Long term: Brewers, big edge
Shortstop
Even in a down season, Winn provided enough production to comfortably outperform the Brewers’ mix of shortstops.
The Cardinals pretty clearly have a present advantage at the shortstop position. Cooper Pratt is only 22 and put up a really solid season, but he did have some BABIP luck and looks to be more solid than exceptional defensively. While the Cardinals have the advantage today, the Brewers pretty clearly have it moving forward. Jesus Made is the game’s top prospect and could debut as early as next season.
2027: Cardinals, slight edge
Long term: Brewers, slight edge
Left Field
Chourio is still just 22 and is inching dangerously close to superstar status.
Chourio is under team control through 2033 and appears to only be getting better. It is not realistic to project Joshua Baez to match or exceed his production, but it would be a big deal if he could at least close the gap.
2027: Brewers, big edge
Long term: Brewers, big edge
Center Field
The Brewers have a good center fielder and the Cardinals do not.
Mitchell is a high-strikeout guy who has posted a career 115 wRC+ thanks to a .382 career BABIP. He has a volatile profile and is only under contract for two more years. Luis Lara broke out in Triple-A as a 21-year-old, but struggled a bit after being called up. He signed a long-term extension and is under team control for the next ten years with club options. Lara is not a sure thing either, but he should have a reasonably high floor thanks to his speed and contact ability. The next-best prospect in the pipeline is Braylon Payne, who made it to Double-A as a 19-year-old. He has swing-and-miss problems, but a ton of upside with 70-grade speed, plus defensive grades, and above-average power.
This feels like a position in which the Cardinals could quickly close ground, but they are signaling that they are going to stick with Nathan Church to start next season. After that, you are waiting for Josiah Ragsdale, Tai Peete, or one of the teenage prospects to emerge. Despite the relatively uninspiring depth in Milwaukee, I would still give the Brew Crew the edge both now and moving forward.
2027: Brewers, big edge
Long term: Brewers, slight edge
Right Field
Jordan Walker’s solid season was enough to give the Cardinals their first decisive win for the 2026 season.
The Brewers will surely have better production next year with either positive regression from Frelick or putting Lara in right field full time. Still, you would much rather have Walker and his upside than anyone the Brewers are likely to run out over the next few years.
2027: Cardinals, big edge
Long term: Cardinals, big edge
Designated Hitter
Both teams had disappointing seasons from their primary DHs, but at least the Cardinals were not paying theirs $26M.
Yelich is under contract for two more seasons and for once, this control is a disadvantage for the Brewers. He is a good bet to rebound some, but is unlikely to be worth his salary as he enters his age-35 season. The previously mentioned corner-infield prospects could help provide some production in the future. Josh Adamczewski is a top-100 prospect who is seen as one of the best pure hitters in the minors but a below-average defender. He only has 66 games in Double-A and is just 21, so he is probably a few years away from being a major factor.
It is hard to project DH value because you do not know if teams are going to use the position as a rotating way to give guys a day off, or have a mostly full-time DH. Herrera is a good bet to be one of the best DHs in the sport for the next three years of his team control. This, combined with Yelich’s contract, gives the Cardinals the edge now and moving forward.
2027: Cardinals, big edge
Long term: Cardinals, slight edge
Advantage by Position
Takeaways
- The Cardinals could have a huge advantage at the catcher position as early as next season if the Brewers trade Contreras.
- I give the Brewers the edge at the shortstop and third base positions long term, but a lot of that is based on teenage prospects that might be overrated. Made and Pena have not posted numbers in line with their prospect rankings. If they do not live up to the hype, the Brewers will be in trouble.
- The biggest single position advantage now and in the future is Chourio in left field. Unless Baez turns into a 3+ WAR player pretty quickly, this is going to be tough to overcome.
- Outside of Chourio, the Brewers’ outfield is really not scary in the short or long term.
- Christian Yelich is the only bad contract on either team, eating up almost 20% of the Brewers’ payroll. That is a real advantage for the Cardinals.
- Where Rainiel Rodriguez fits in positionally could change the picture a ton.
Alright, so where does this leave us? Based on my assessment, the Cardinals and Brewers should have the same number of positional advantages next season. Turang outperformed his expected stats and likely just put up his career year. Bauers is a free agent. Ortiz, Mitchell, and Vaughn all crushed their projections and are likely to regress. You could see some bounceback from Contreras, Yelich, and Frelick and continued improvement from Chourio, Lara, and Pratt. Any time a team wins 103 games, they are all but guaranteed to have some regression the next season. There is plenty of uncertainty on the Cardinals’ side too. No one knows what Walker will do next. Burleson’s 2026 will be tough to beat. I would expect better seasons from Winn and Herrera. Baez has such a low bar to clear from the left fielders he is replacing that he alone could make up a ton of ground. A full season of Bernal should be a huge improvement too.
We obviously haven’t begun to address the pitching side with this comparison, but on the position-player side, the Cards are a center fielder and third baseman away from being right there.
