Just a bit short. I think that should probably be the story of this midweek series in San Francisco. I guess literally the Cubs were more than just a bit short. The cumulative score of the series was 21-8. Not close. But, it so often felt in the series that when the Cubs hit the ball, another foot or two would change the outcome and so often when the Giants hit the ball, a few feet would change the outcome. Cub batted balls found gloves and Giant batted balls found holes.
Doesn’t matter if you care
to hear that theory or not. At the end of the day, all that matters it that this Cub team faceplanted just when it looked like they had maybe dusted themselves off. And so, like a broken record, we roll it back. After winning on July 4, the Cubs were 18 over for the first time at 53-35. 46 games, 23-23 since then. Closing in on two months of sideways. Some years, that might have been disaster. This year, it’s not going to matter. This team is a playoff team.
Right now, the question is how much of a silver lining that is. Are we just waiting to see them get bounced in two games to end their season? They’ve got strong pitching and explosive offense. It doesn’t have to be a death march to an early exit. But it might be. I guess it could be worse. You could be a Giants team that has now won five straight against the Brewers and Cubs and their season is going to end well short of the playoffs. Every year there are one or two of those teams who are playing out the string but isn’t interested in being roadkill to the playoff teams.
This one felt like it was winnable, but the Cubs could just never break all the way through. That’s where it felt repetitive with the rest of the series. Even with the lopsided loss Wednesday, the Cubs had the bases loaded twice early and didn’t score a run either time. A couple of opportunities got away Tuesday too. Perhaps, if some of these early opportunities were cashed in, the rest of the game plays differently. Baseball isn’t football. But I long advocated that you gameplan to aggressively jump on a lesser team. A team that hangs around is going to look for the joy of victory. A team that falls behind early might start thinking about what plans are like after the game.
In this one, the Cubs had runners on first and third with one out (after scoring their first run) and hit into a double play. In the third, they had a strikeout/caught stealing double play. In the fourth, they had a runner picked off first base. in the eighth, there was a line drive double play. The Cubs only ended up leaving two runners on base due to the wide variety of runners that were out on the bases.
Each team had eight hits, each team drew one walk. The Cubs hit one batter. Each team homered twice. Each team grounded into a double play. This is a game that turned a fair bit on sequencing. Sequencing turned into a one-run win and a sweep of the Cubs by the Giants.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 123, 34 BF (8.1 IP)
- Giants: 117, 32 BF
The Giants threw exactly 13 pitches per inning. The Cubs were over 14.5 pitches per inning. (The difference between a 9 denominator and an 8.33 is striking). Despite that gap, again it doesn’t feel that huge. Two outs and six pitches obviously matches the teams exactly.
The Cubs used more or less their two highest leverage relievers, Brad Keller and Daniel Palencia. They threw 18 and 13 pitches respectively, so they’ll be available to aggressively chase wins in Colorado this weekend.
Three Stars:
- Kyle Tucker had a single, double, walk and run scored. He was caught stealing though.
- Michael Busch had a solo homer. It gave the Cubs the lead in the sixth.
- Dansby Swanson had a solo homer, tying the game at two.
Game 134, August 28: Giants 4, Cubs 3 (76-58)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Kyle Tucker (.127). 2-3, 2B, BB, R, CS
- Hero: Brad Keller (.103). IP, 4 BF, HBP, K
- Sidekick: Matt Shaw (.066). 1-3, 2B
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Daniel Palencia (-.369). 0.1 IP, 4 BF, 3 H, ER (L 1-4)
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.222). 1-4, DP, CS
- Kid: Reese McGuire (-.082). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Jung Hoo Lee’s walk-off single. (.297)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s go-ahead homer in the sixth. (.170)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Nico Hoerner received 65 of 69 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +27
- Shōta Imanaga +22
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Michael Busch +15.67
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Carson Kelly -16
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -27.33
- Seiya Suzuki -28
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) off (Cubs up 1). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 4). Reds off (Cubs up 8). The Reds need to finish 22-6 to reach 90 wins. And I’ll still take the over on 90 wins for the Cubs. This team is closing on a full lock on a playoff spot and the Reds are drifting out of contention.
Up Next: The Cubs head to Colorado to face the Rockies. The Rockies are 38-96. After being abysmal in April and May, they have only be bad in June, July and August. So far, they are 10-16 in August. They are a better team at home. The Cubs swept the Rockies in Chicago earlier this year in three low-scoring games.
Cade Horton (8-4, 2.88, 93.2 IP) gets the start for the Cubs. As he bursts into the Rookie of the Year picture, he needs to be the one to stop the slide. No pressure, but this is part of the potential ascension to stardom. He’s 4-1 with a 0.72 ERA in August. He’s allowed just two runs since the All-Star game. He allowed two runs over six innings back in May against the Rockies.
Venezuelan Germán Márquez starts for the Rockies. He is 3-11 with a 5.67 ERA in 98.1 IP. He has been on the IL with an arm injury since leaving a start against the Twins on July 20. Ironically, he was the opposition in the game against Horton back in May. The Cubs won that one 4-3 in 11. He has a 5.31 ERA at home and a 6.46 ERA at night. If the Cubs bats don’t crank it up in this series, it might never happen.
Sweep this series. It’s a lot to ask, but win the winnable games.
